My Thought Vault
One of my complaints about Substack is limited options for sharing blogging history, which for me began at my previous site more than a decade ago slatekeeper.blogspot.com. I’m publishing this post that can be pinned to the main page for future visitors to get backstory. You can click on the section titles at the top of my blog to browse the entire list for each category. Most of the stuff you’ll find here are the more “evergreen” posts. Fantasy Report really only matter in the moment, same with weekly betting reports and pick posts. You’re only going to care about my bets on Saturday March 16 when there’s still opportunity to place wagers. If you want to study my whole year of pick posts, they’re all up there.
Recent Posts
My Books
The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus
Some of the betting strategies discussed eventually ceased being profitable, but it’s basically a journal outlining my first 3 years betting a pretend wager on every single NHL game from October 2019 to May 2022 (playoffs not included). That should still be of interest to some of you who would love to set off on a similar path yourselves.
Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World
This book outlined the 15 best contracts each team signed in the salary cap era. The stats are out of date and updated versions of all these lists are currently available for free on my blog (scroll down), but there is still plenty of compelling information/thoughts for people obsessed with contracts. Only available in ebook because it was too long for paperback.
The Definitive Guide to Salary Cap Mismanagement
Same description as the previous book, but the 15 worst contracts. I expected this one to sell more copies than the best contracts (because worst contract lists always get more clicks), but the first book doubled this one in sales. My theory is that the first had a much better title. This title was a little too “cute”. Only available in ebook because it was too long for paperback.
Team-by-Team Best/Worst NHL Contracts (2005-2024)
What are the 20 best and 20 worst contracts signed by every NHL team (minus Seattle for now, and fewer than 20 for Vegas) in the salary cap era? These were originally published in the aforementioned books, now routinely updated every summer, adding fresh stats, changing “adjusted cap hit” to reflect the increasing cap number, also demoting-promoting-active contracts based on the season that just finished. Note: I have a different way of “adjusting” historical cap numbers, not simply % cap (mine is better for forecasting new deals). Basically if you made league minimum in 2005/06, I adjust that to the same as league minimum in 2024, even though it’s a different % cap. At the high-end of the pay-scale, it’s essentially percentage cap. Also note that I used % cap last update instead of my method and am now switching back, so some of the nerds among you might notice a few who ended up with a lower “adjusted cap hit” after the cap increased. Sorry.
One thing you won’t find on these lists are entry level contracts, which are quite often bargains, but they all come from the same cookie-cutter and don’t require the same skill at the negotiating table (other than convincing the player to commit). Also, winning the Stanley Cup while under a contract makes that deal immune from worst contract lists, unless that player barely played in the playoffs. Any active contracts on any worst list that wins a Stanley Cup in the future will be immediately removed and an apology issued, like Bobrovsky a few days ago.
One final “also”; #1 as listed below may change in the next few weeks as updates are made.
Anaheim Ducks:
Best Contracts: #1 Scott Niedermayer Worst Contracts: #1 Corey Perry
Boston Bruins:
Best Contracts: #1 Tim Thomas Worst Contracts: #1 Matt Belesky
Buffalo Sabres:
Best Contracts: #1 Ryan O’Reilly Worst Contracts: #1 Ville Leino
Calgary Flames:
Best Contracts: #1 Johnny Gaudreau Worst Contracts: #1 James Neal
Carolina Hurricanes:
Best Contracts: #1 Sebastian Aho Worst Contracts: #1 Alex Semin
Chicago Blackhawks:
Best Contracts: #1 Jonathan Toews Worst Contracts: #1 Brent Seabrook
Colorado Avalanche:
Best Contracts: #1 Nathan MacKinnon Worst Contracts: #1 David Jones
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Best Contracts: #1 Seth Jones Worst Contracts: #1 R.J Umberger
Dallas Stars:
Best Contracts: #1 Jason Robertson Worst Contracts: #1 Tyler Seguin
Detroit Red Wings:
Best Contracts: #1 Henrik Zetterberg Worst Contracts: #1 Stephen Weiss
Edmonton Oilers:
Best Contracts: #1 Connor McDavid Worst Contracts: #1 Milan Lucic
Florida Panthers:
Best Contracts: #1 Aleksander Barkov Worst Contracts: #1 Keith Ballard
Los Angeles Kings:
Best Contracts: #1 Drew Doughty Worst Contracts: #1 Marian Gaborik
Minnesota Wild:
Best Contracts: #1 Kirill Kaprizov Worst Contracts: #1 Zach Parise
Montreal Canadiens:
Best Contracts: #1 Carey Price Worst Contracts: #1 Carey Price
Nashville Predators:
Best Contracts: #1 Roman Josi Worst Contracts: #1 Kyle Turris
New Jersey Devils:
Best Contracts: #1 Jack Hughes Worst Contracts: #1 Anton Volchenkov
New York Islanders:
Best Contracts: #1 John Tavares Worst Contracts: #1 Rick DiPietro
New York Rangers:
Best Contracts: #1 Henrik Lundqvist Worst Contracts: #1 Wade Redden
Ottawa Senators:
Best Contracts: #1 Erik Karlsson Worst Contracts: #1 Bobby Ryan
Philadelphia Flyers:
Best Contracts: #1 Sean Couturier Worst Contracts: #1 Ilya Bryzgalov
Pittsburgh Penguins:
Best Contracts: #1 Sidney Crosby Worst Contracts: #1 Rob Scuderi
San Jose Sharks:
Best Contracts: #1 Brent Burns Worst Contracts: #1 Marc-Edouard Vlasic
St. Louis Blues:
Best Contracts: #1 Alex Pietrangelo Worst Contracts: #1 Jay McKee
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Best Contracts: #1 Nikita Kucherov Worst Contracts: #Vinny Lecavalier
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Best Contracts: #1 Phil Kessel Worst Contracts: #1 Dion Phaneuf
Arizona Utah Coyotes:
Best Contracts: #1 Oliver Ekman-Larsson Worst Contracts: #1 OEL
Vancouver Canucks:
Best Contracts: #1 Henrik Sedin Worst Contracts: #1 Loui Eriksson
Vegas Golden Knights:
Best Contracts: #1 Jon Marchessault Worst Contracts: #1 Nate Schmidt
Washington Capitals:
Best Contracts: #1 Alex Ovechkin Worst Contracts: #1 Brooks Laich
Winnipeg Jets:
Best Contracts: #1 Connor Hellebuyck Worst Contracts: #1 Zach Bogosian
Sports Predictions
Historical Worst NHL Contracts:
What were the worst contracts in the NHL each year of the salary cap era?
2023: Winner: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, runner-up: Seth Jones
2022: Winner: Erik Karlsson, runner-up: Marc-Edouard Vlasic
2021: Winner: Erik Karlsson, runner-up: Jeff Skinner
2020: Winner: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, runner-up: Brent Seabrook
2019: Winner: Milan Lucic, runner-up: Brent Seabrook
2018: Winner: Zach Parise, runner-up: Bobby Ryan
2017: Winner: Bobby Ryan, runner-up: Zach Parise
2016: Winner: Andrew Ladd, runner-up: Zach Parise
2015: Winner: David Clarkson, runner-up: Nathan Horton
2014: Winner: David Clarkson, runner-up: Jordan Staal
2013: Winner: Roberto Luongo, runner-up: James Wisniewski
2012: Winner: Vincent LeCavalier, runner-up: Scott Gomez
2011: Winner: Vincent LeCavalier, runner-up: Wade Redden
2010: Winner: Chris Drury, runner-up: Scott Gomez
2009: Winner: Chris Drury, runner-up: Scott Gomez
2008: Winner: Rick DiPietro, runner-up: Chris Drury
2007: Winner: Nikolai Khabibulin, runner-up: Derian Hatcher
2006: Winner: Nikolai Khabibulin, runner-up: Glen Murray
Historical Best Contracts Lists
2023: Winner: Jack Hughes, runner-up: Tage Thompson
2022: Winner: Cale Makar, runner-up: Jack Hughes
2021: Winner: Nathan MacKinnon, runner-up: Leon Draisaitl
2020: Winner: Nathan MacKinnon, runner-up: Leon Draisaitl
2019: Winner: Nathan MacKinnon, runner-up: Alksander Barkov
2018: Winner: Nathan MacKinnon, runner-up: Seth Jones
2017: Winner: Nikita Kucherov, runner-up: Roman Josi
2016: Winner: Nikita Kucherov, runner-up: Tyler Seguin
2015: Winner: Tyler Seguin, runner-up: John Tavares
2014: Winner: John Tavares, runner-up: Victor Hedman
2013: Winner: John Tavares, runner-up: David Backes
2012: Winner: Claude Giroux, runner-up: Kris Letang
2011: Winner: Corey Perry, runner-up: Ryan Kesler
2010: Winner: Mike Green, runner-up: Corey Perry
2009: Winner: Ryan Getzlaf, runner-up: Shea Weber
2008: Winner: Henrik Zetterberg, runner-up: Sedin Twins
2007: Winner: Miika Kiprusoff, runner-up: Danny Heatley
2006: Winner: Miika Kiprusoff, runner-up: Henrik Zetterberg
NHL Contract Analytics
NHL Economics
NHL Statistics
NHL Draft Analytics
Prospects Who Increased Value Most Following World Junior Tournament
Probability of Getting a Top 4 Defenseman or Top 6 Forward in the NHL Draft
Probability of Draft Picks Being Ranked in The Hockey News Future Watch
Does Prospect Improvement Rate Indicate Greater Probability Of Pro Success?
Expected Future Value of The Hockey News NHL Future Watch Prospects
How Patrick Roy Killed Quebec's Status As Goaltending Factory
Best/Worst Lists
Best Bargain Contracts Given to Top Pairing Defensemen (2005-2017)
Trade Deadline Deals Leading To Stanley Cup Wins (2006-2017)
Worst Contracts Signed After Winning Stanley Cup (since 2005)
Contracts (2005-2018): Most Games Played Without a Playoff Game
Best/Worst Multi-year Contracts Given to Players Age 35 or Older