2025 Round 2 NHL Playoffs Betting Preview

Round one of the 2025 NHL playoffs has been logged into the history books (sorry, that was written expecting this to be posted when Jets-Blues wrapped on time), with all eyes on the future. Special thanks to everyone who bought subscriptions to access what I’m calling my VIP chat rooms, now home to all my early betting picks. Those who bet $10 on all my moneyline/puckline picks (at the opening price) won $45, exactly half the annual subscription price. I was hot at the beginning and end of round one, with a cold streak in the middle. There will always be chat threads available for free subscribers too, like the Florida-Toronto series and my 2024/25 player valuations. Most of my VIP betting threads will be opened to the free members when the games are done, so all of you can see what the VIPs received to decide if a backstage pass is worthwhile.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

The only sad part is all my new VIPs are people who just started subscribing recently, none of my long-time readers. You’re all forgiven though because I really hyped subscriptions being free when most of you agreed to share your email with Substack. The good news is free subscriptions remain unchanged and you’ll continue getting everything from the main feed at no cost, but there will be posts and chats that are only ever viewable for VIPs. The biggest difference is my early bets don’t go out for free anymore (except in Monday betting reports or select free threads). All my sister’s picks are shared on social media (my pipeline for new readers), she just likes waiting until shortly before puck drop. Quite often she’s getting a worse line price and doesn’t bet every game.

My round one profit on all wagers (including over/under) was $1,399 (including both game sevens) bringing my balance for the full season placing 2 wagers on every single game at -$956 on nearly $400,000 worth of fake wagers. Having a chat space where thoughts can be logged in organized threads is awesome, and my performance since opening up this space has been excellent (it did start with a cold streak before playoffs even began). Chat posts have no character limits and don’t get lost in the vastness madness of social media, staying in organized threads. As there are fewer games to write about, my NHL free agency work is ramping up. People paying me money to do this has blasted energy into my cerebral cortex.

My brain won’t turn off. New content ideas are bombarding me daily. Just be warned that I may disappear into the Canadian wilderness for a few months if Toronto wins the Stanley Cup. On that note, let’s talk about the 2025 playoffs!

Round 1 Summary

There isn’t necessarily urgency or even necessity to do a round one betting report, given most of it would just be copy/pasted from Substack chat. Those threads are open to free subscribers if you’d like study in preparation for future series. In terms of which categories worked in R1, it’s worth noting what happened, but those exact parameters are unlikely to replicate. The only strong correlation with the historical line range stats from previous round twos is home mild dogs. A brief summary of what we saw in round one, home teams were the big winners, especially home dogs. In those cases when home teams were underdogs, I tended more to the favorites with negative results. Note that the table below does not include the game sevens, and Dallas hit -1.5 against Colorado (with 2 seconds left).

The over/under table is a bigger surprise with overs going 29-17 after a lower scoring regular season. I took a big loss betting under 5.5 goals, with overs going 26-12. I’m a net loser on over/under wagers this season, but that’s partially a bioproduct of my bet every game mandate, a motto not shared by my sister’s account. She made 4 over/under bets and went 2-2. My over/under picks turned a small profit (barely above zero if whiffing on St. Louis-Winnipeg game seven), which I’m hoping carries over into the next round. My round one bets were guided more by the average goals stats on my pick graphics than actual model recommendation, and as a result I outperformed 75% of my models.

Round Two Line Range Stats 2022-2024

Looking at the line range stats from the previous 3 playoffs, the first thing jumping off the graphic is big favorites at home performing awful, the games we should be trusting as safe. Big favorites and big dogs were bad bets at home. The evidence suggests only bet the home team if the moneyline is between -150 and +150. Though I should check the data to find the optimal boundary between home and road, because road dogs were excellent, especially -1.5 goals if the moneyline is under +150. I’m not suggesting a casual relationship where once a team crosses -150 they are more likely to lose, rather the win rate is not in sync with the implied probability of the lines. We don’t have any big favorites yet, but Dallas might be vs St. Louis. I won’t know my pick for that game until minutes before posting.

Over/Under 2022-2024

The over/under table from past round twos is right in my wheelhouse, over 5.5 and under 6.5 were optimal bets. Keep in mind those playoffs were before Draft Kings and others stopped offering totals at 6. Only 39% of totals opened at 5.5 in the previous 3 round twos, but the round that just wrapped was 83% and overs went 26-12. The totals for the first 3 2025 R2 game ones opened at 5.5 and I’m picking over in all of them (Stars-Blues undecided). In the last 12 R2 G1 match-ups, 9 went over, 3 went under. Last playoffs there was a 0.3 increase in goal scoring from R1 to R2 (5.7 to 6) so don’t necessarily expect fewer goals just because the weaker teams were eliminated.

One nugget from my 2024 Round 2 Preview:

“In round two of 2022 and 2023, unders went 23-21 despite a small increase in goal scoring, but what’s a good pick varied from series to series. Florida unders went 9-0, meaning overs went 21-12 in round two games not involving the Panthers (more than half of those overs came from a Dallas or Edmonton game). There really is no blanket strategy, that applies to the entire round, it’s something that needs to be handled on a series-by-series basis.”

Basically, the total number of goals scored will be a function of the teams and goalies involved. That’s why my strategy after game one will be specific to the goaltending performances within each series. Last 3 playoffs when there are 5 or less goals in game one, under 5.5 was 3-0 in game two. When there are more than 5 goals in G1, over 5.5 was 8-1 in game two, over 6.5 was 6-3. Yes, that’s a small sample of games, but if G1 goes under, best bet G2 is under, if it goes over, best bet G2 is over. My “history is never guaranteed to repeat” disclaimer probably needs repeating one more time.

Betting Models

Most of my moneyline/puckline models have playoff specific angles in their matrix, and mostly did a good job in round one. A few struggled, but I’ve been regularly updating the top models in my pick graphics and began ignoring the weaker models as more games were played. At this point, historical precedence is guiding my decisions as much as the models, but I’m at least trying to respect their advice where prudent. Shorting Value was my best in the regular season and continues atop the leaderboard. Its primary input is the implied probability of the betting line minus that of the fair line estimator. Most often it bets the opposite of value, but not always. Maybe Hedging Value would be a better name.

The over/under models did not fare nearly as well, but my top 2 have been awesome, so maybe they deserve the lead bill instead of “top 5”, have top 2. Angle heaters is a simple concept: add up how much each model won or lost last 30 days working that specific angle, tail #1 on the list. Earlier in the season it was adding up profit loss for all the models and betting the side that was most profitable, but that wasn’t working so it was changed to just tailing the hottest and that’s been fantastic in playoffs. Though feels like every time I dive too deep into a model heater, it immediately starts regressing back to the mean.

Sorry if some of my series previews were spoiled for chat readers.

Toronto vs Florida

Series bets: Toronto +135, 7 games at +500

This was my 6th full season placing a fake wager on every single NHL game. In the last 4 seasons, I'm down $7,000 betting Leafs to win, by far my worst. That's more than #2 and #3 combined (Calgary and Pittsburgh). There is a stunning amount of evidence Leafs choke when I pick them to win over a very large sample of games. You can understand how my brain can warp into believing that my picking them to win will help them lose, that correlation equals causation. To quote the wise philosopher He-Man, I HAVE THE POWER! At least that was my entering the 2025 post-season. I went 6-0 picking winners in Leafs-Sens, 4 of those were Toronto.

Leafs are a +135 underdog to win this series and I had them winning in my NHL.com bracket challenge, but that might have been influenced by my aforementioned Leafs mind virus. I'll have difficulty mentally processing Toronto knocking off Florida with an easy path to the final. In that scenario, I might need to rent a log cabin deep in the bush for a few months and unplug from TV and internet. I'll stay true to my bracket and make Leafs my series pick (in 7 games at +500), but my sister is not betting that. I'm not staying beholden to that in my game-to-game picks. My betting models are likely to guide my choices going forward.

Toronto is my series pick and are +105 home dogs in game one despite my fair line estimator saying the line should be -300. My betting models prefer the home side and they’re more profitable in game one historically (I’ve been using the word historically to describe the last 3 playoffs, no more, no less). If Florida had been a +105 dog, they would have been my pick +1.5 goals. My sister has no idea if she’s even betting this, but given my Leafs hot streak, abstention will be a difficult decision. Note that Florida unders are 12-3 in the last 3 round twos, 10-5 under 5.5 goals. I’m picking over 5.5 in game one because that bet was made before the research from the previous sentence, but also because that’s part of a general strategy, otherwise I’ll likely be leaning on unders the rest of the series.

Washington vs Carolina

Series bets: Washington +130, 7 games at +500

Our first confirmed match-up of round two was Washington vs Carolina, with the Hurricanes opening as a -150 favorite, which has moved to -160. That feels strange given their home dominance and not having home ice advantage. Carolina goaltending is suddenly questionable again, a common playoff theme in past playoffs. This was the projected Metro match-up in my bracket and I had Caps winning (likely because of home ice). My official series pick is Caps +130 and 7 games at +500. I'll probably bet the home team every game this series with home teams going 8-2 in the previous series involving these teams. Unders went 6-4 for these teams round one and my picks went 7-3. I’m picking over in game one, but goaltending in that game will dictate my pick in game two.

The Hurricanes are 5-12 in their last 17 road games, which brings us back to why I picked Washington to win this match-up before playoffs even started. My betting models like the home team, and game one of round two the last 3 playoffs, home teams are 7-5. Technically the best game one bet is road +1.5 goals (which is 9-3), but that's not knocking me off Caps moneyline. These teams just had a high goals per game considering their unders went 6-4, except the 4 games that went over were very high scoring and 4 of the 6 unders were 1 goal away from flipping over. That’s why I’m not married to overs or unders aside from game one over 5.5. Their round one series threads are open to free subscribers if you’d like to go back and read all my thoughts before deciding your optimal path ahead.

Vegas vs Edmonton

Series bets: Edmonton -120, 7 games at +500

Vegas and Edmonton will be meeting in round two and the Oilers opened as a -120 favorite on the series line, which has dropped to -115. I had Oilers losing round one against LA because of the home ice advantage, but they won in LA and Kings did not win in Edmonton. We also saw McDavid hit his top gear, which is a fearsome weapon in the Oiler arsenal that Vegas lacks. I'm picking Oilers to win the series and in 7 games at +500, which will require at least decent goaltending from Calvin Pickard, which is no sure thing. If we even see Stuart Skinner in the net, I’ll be pivoting hard to the Vegas side. You are better off betting this game-to-game than laying money on the series line with Edmonton’s unpredictability.

Edmonton is my series pick and my betting models expressed a strong preference for them winning game one, so hard to disagree with their assessment. Given how game one of round two typically goes, home moneyline and road+1.5 goals were going to be my primary options, but I’m getting +100 on the Oilers moneyline so will make that my pick (that has moved to +110, so public likes Vegas). This will only be a minimum wager because I’m still concerned about a sudden goaltending implosion. Granted, Vegas goaltending wasn’t exactly awesome against Minnesota, which is why I like over 5.5 goals. My sister has not made a decision yet, but may just bet the over depending on the line at Play Now. Okay, now I’m seeing the total has moved to 6.5 on Draft Kings, and I would have taken the under if that was the opening total.

Winnipeg vs Dallas

Series bets: Dallas -145, 5 games at +500

Once St. Louis took a 2-goal lead 8 minutes into the first period, I officially started writing my preview of the central division final. My sister laid money on Blues +1.5 goals, but we’re cheering for the Canadian team. In the 14 games these teams played round one, home side went 12-2. That’s why my series pick is Dallas (Blues up 2 goals with 1:45 left in period one when that was written). If Jets had won, Dallas wouldn’t have home ice advantage, but still would have been my pick on the series line. Hard to say with any certainty how healthy Heiskanen or Robertson are, and whether they would even be their normal selves if able to lace up the skates. But they just knocked off a Stanley Cup favorite without those guys, so bet them to lose at your own risk.

The above paragraph was written before Winnipeg tied up the game. Since the whole preview is done waiting for this to end, I’m going to leave the above part in its original form (changing 11-3 to 12-2). Winnipeg having home ice advantage does intrigue me a little as a +125 dog, but the health of Morrissey and Scheifele are giant question marks, so I’m still picking Dallas series and game one.

Okay I’m posting this now with first overtime done. I’m undecided on my game one over/under but Stars moneyline is my game one pick regardless of the line. Come back tomorrow to get my picks.

UPDATE: JETS WIN!!!

Give me over 5.5 goals on Stars moneyline. If Scheifele and Morrissey are out, Jets are f**ked. The fact they pulled off a come from behind victory without them is stunning.

Fantasy Hockey News

Those of you who consume my fantasy content might be happy to learn I’m planning to open a subscriber league, possibly two if there’s overflowing demand, but don’t want to count chickens before they hatch (sorry that you are the chicken in the metaphor). Paid subscribers get first priority, ranked by how long you’ve been paying. If you buy a year membership (which provides a lower monthly cost), you’re guaranteed a spot. Unfilled spots will be offered to the free subscribers on a first come first serve basis. This league will be a giant topic of conversation in my betting reports and chat threads. That also gets me to the next content announcement; a future VIP fantasy chat thread that will be worth every penny. When the Yahoo mock draft lobby opens up in August and my mass mock draft project begins, I’ll be letting those in the chat know when I’m heading to the Yahoo mock draft lobby. Ya’ll can mock with me.

The subscriber league will be drafting very early, before any of my pre-draft prep material gets posted. Those with VIP access can get a cheat sheet based on my mock results before the draft (along with other tips/nuggets/observations/etc), but free subscribers will need to do their own draft prep. The winner of the league gets a full year of free VIP access. I’ll even email my exact pre-draft rankings to anyone who purchased an annual membership, so you’ll know who I’m most likely to take at each pick. The Stanley Cup goes until June, I’m planning a summer free agent extravaganza, then mock drafts open August (unless Leafs win the Cup and I fall off the grid). LOTS of content coming this summer for those of you purchasing subscriptions now. Annual memberships provide a 17% discount on the monthly price. You’ll also receive a tremendous amount of my gratitude!