2025 Round 1 NHL Playoffs Betting Preview
Welcome to my 2025 NHL Round One Playoff Betting Preview, which started with notes in the chat room and evolved into my annual round one preview. Apologies to any paid members who already read many of the words you’re about to read (and more) in the chat (which is mostly just me dumping picks, stats and thoughts into organized threads), but my free members are still cherished and will still continue receiving plenty of free content from the main feed. That’s why the pay wall will fall for Easter weekend and the opening of playoffs, providing more of you a sneak peak at this new venue. There are threads for each series where I’ve been busy logging thoughts the last few days and will be posting all my initial bets in that space for the rest of playoffs, live chatting while many games are being played.
I’ll periodically be taking down the paywall to give everyone a taste of what’s been cooking behind the castle walls, lots of free samples clipped on Twitter too. Getting all my picks for every single game a day early is the biggest carrot, but there will be other perks as well. If you buy a full year in the next week, I’ll throw in a free analysis of your 2024/25 betting results (provided you copy/paste your bet history into a spreadsheet, I can handle formatting). Committing to the full year lowers the monthly cost and guarantees you’ll get approximately 3,200 bets in the next 12 months. This was a down year for me with parity and lower scoring, but still returned 99 cents per $1 on thousands of wagers shared.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.
Now that the sales pitch is behind us, let’s re-focus our attention on round one. I’ve logged a wager on every single NHL game since October 2019, the first two years of which were removed from my active historical database because Covid made the data useless. Even 2021/22 was messed up for the first half, but we do have 3 consecutive years of quasi-normal playoffs, the data from which was included in my model reconstruction project last summer, and every angle was verified for playoff profitability, and given an alternate wager if that angle crashed in playoffs. However, this is still a much smaller sample of games than the regular which only adds variance and volatility to outcomes, but the stakes are highest, excitement maxed and that’s why so many people watch and want to wager.
One important note for those of you following the evolution of my betting models, there’s a whole bunch of new playoff specific angles they’re working, and it’s going to take a few days to determine which angles fit best to the new parameters (which are determined by the summed results of individual series, each of which is unique) best represent the collective will of these 8 new series. Things that worked in past playoffs are not guaranteed to repeat. We’re dealing with much smaller sample sizes than the regular season training data. Last playoffs I introduced 9 new post-season specific models, nicknaming them “ring-wraiths”, but by and large the were mostly losers, some so terrible that I started betting opposite their picks.
Team Results
Here are my team-by-team profit rankings for last 3 opening rounds. Did a bad job with Vancouver, though nearly half of that came from blown overs. I took a big short position in that Nashville Canucks series when Silovs took the job from Demko (shorting Canucks while betting overs, neither was a good call). Blew up in my face. While you can see that betting Leafs to win was my worst bet, I performed well on their over/under. That’s a category untouched by my personal bias against Toronto, whether they win or lose by a high or low score does not impact me emotionally, like the profound sadness when they win playoff games.
Looking at a more organized table for the team by team, Penguins vs Rangers was another very high scoring series where you would have crushed over 6.5 goals. That with Avs-Jets were uncommonly high scoring. This doesn't mean bet over 6.5 if that's the line, given over 6.5 was likely a net loser outside those series. Minnesota and Winnipeg are traditionally the best teams to short in round 1, then Toronto. Wow, so if you bet $100 on each of the ML, +1.5, -1.5 on Toronto opponents in all their round 1 playoff games last 3 years, you made $666 (based on the opening line at Draft Kings). That's the number commonly associated with Satan. I'm just not sure if the Leafs are Satan in this symbolism, or their opponents. Something to think about anyways…
Line Range Stats
Below is a graphic of the home-road line ranges (where +150 and -150 are the border between mild and big) from the last 3 opening rounds. If you bet $100 on every road moneyline, you banked a small profit versus a giant loss on home moneyline. Though I'm not convinced that's an optimal cookie cutter for how to approach every series, nor does it indicate there is any "road ice advantage" we're just talking about a big tax on the home team because most bettors will naturally lean that way. Home win% in the sample was 50.3%, lower than the 53% we tend to see regular season, and the implied probability of home favorites ML is often much higher than 50%. Favorites -1.5 goals had a better rate of return than favorites moneyline.
Favorites -1.5 Goals
Favorites -1.5 goals performed better than any other category in 145 round one games. My best categories last season were game two home puckline, game four home puckline, and game six home puckline. Those three spots produced the bulk of my profit in the full round. In fact, of 27 favorite wins in round one last year, 21 were by multiple goals. That was not the case in 2021, but boomed in 2024. In the early years of my betting experiment, dogs +1.5 goals was one of my core playoff wagers, especially in lower-scoring matchups with high-end goaltenders (Carey Price) but that category has collapsed. Ideally, I’d like to see the goalie hot in actual playoff games, not recent regular season performance.
Without a true Cinderella team with elite defense and a tendency to drag games into the mud, the dog +1.5 bet has struggled recent years, both at home and on the road. If there’s a big home favorite with a heavy tax, then H-1.5 is not going to produce big returns. Road big dogs produced a small profit, but not enough that you’re reliably betting them to start round one in 2025. That could change any given year, so I’m playing it safer for game one, staying away from pucklines. Jacob Markstrom, Jake Oettinger, and Filip Gustavsson have game stealing ability, but I’m more likely to avoid their opponents -1.5 than embrace them +1.5.
Game One Road Dogs
One strategy I took into the 2024 playoffs was road teams in game one, not necessarily because they are more likely to win, but rather public bias towards home teams, especially overpriced favorites. This creates more value on the road side, who often enter looser with less pressure from lower expectations. In both 2023 and 2024, blindly betting all road moneylines in game one produced a substantial return. These aren't lucky wins, they’re market misreads. Bettors overvalue regular season home records and underestimate how thin the gap really is between playoff teams. Look for dogs with a better or hotter goalie than the host. Note that road dogs -1.5 goals went 5-29 last round one, betting $100 on each lost $1,600.
I’m only betting 2 road teams in the 8 first games, Colorado and Florida. Avs are favored -135, Panthers a +100 dog. Bobrovsky has the ability to outplay Vasilevskiy, but before the puck drops, Tampa has the edge in goal. Montreal and St. Louis at +160 for game one presented tempting value. Ultimately, I’m picking the series favorite in 7 series, so leaning into dogs game one would have conflicted with my series picks. Ottawa +136 was another tempting number given Ottawa’s record in Toronto the last few years, but you can’t trust my Maple Leaf picks in playoffs, at least when picking them to win. If I express interest in Ottawa, that might be a good indicator it’s a strong bet.
Only Trust Zig Zag on Home Favorites After a Loss
So-called Zig Zag theory is one of the most overused playoff betting concepts in circulation. Blindly betting the loser of the previous game every opportunity has gone negative in back-to-back playoffs, in large part because oddsmakers charge a giant tax given the volume of public money that hammers losers to win the next game. But there’s still one version that works: high seed home team coming off a loss. Game two has been the best zig zag opportunity in recent history. Higher seeds that drop game one at home rebound hard in game two, with a 63%-win rate and strong puckline returns. The line doesn’t move enough to reflect the desperation and adjustment factor.
Trying to zig zag a road underdog in game two has been a money-loser, so has betting a zig zag on a team you just watched get outclassed. 5 first round series last playoffs wrapped in 5 games or less, so you walked away with a big loss if you bet the loser of every game to win the next in those series. If there are more series that go longer in 2025, that would likely boost the zig zag profitability, but the taxes tend to be prohibitively high anyway. I’ll mostly just be sticking to high seed on home ice, I’m just nervous to see how much tax oddsmakers charge for that privilege.
Over/Under
Here's the over/under results table, which is unlikely to have 6 as an option depending on oddsmakers in your geographic region. When the total was 5.5, unders went 33-28, when it was 6.5, overs went 25-19. The Colorado-Winnipeg series was responsible for a fair chunk of the profit over 6.5, but you're only going to see that total in a high scoring series. I was actually fantastic betting over/under when the total was 6 in previous round ones. Play Now still rolls out totals at 6. Maybe my sister should be betting those? In 2023, overs in games three and six went 12-4 combined. Game three last playoffs went 4-4 over 5.5 goals, only 3 series even made it to game six, and all 3 went under 5.5 goals.
Examples of things that worked one playoffs but not the next are why I’m focusing more on vibes than a fixed strategy. My betting models were all reconstructed before the break, and many have playoff specific angles. I’ll need to keep close watch on their early results to see which ones emerge with the best angles for the current season. It was a lower scoring regular season, so this could be a much lower scoring playoffs than recent history. All 8 opening games have the total set at 5.5 and I’m picking under in 7 of those. My sister is going to be hyper-selective and only bet when there’s two hot or two cold goalies in the same series.
Don’t Chase Series Scorelines
Taking a step away from round 1 and looking at my record on series bets was discouraging, at least on series correct score like Florida in 7 games. My record is 2-28 on exact series scorelines over the past two years. The payout looks tempting, but the variance is brutal. Even when I had the right team, the wrong number of games crushed the bet. There’s nothing wrong with betting a team to win the series. But the moment you guess 4-2 or 4-3, you’re adding layers of uncertainty for little additional value. I’ll still logging a series score pick for tracking purposes. But they’re no longer part of my primary card, won’t be included in my result tables, and my sister is only betting individual games. She was going to do an 8-leg parlay with all my series winners but Play Now does not allow.
Betting $100 on all 30 of my series picks last 2 years (skewed heavily towards favorites) only produced a $120 loss, going 18-12 on the picks. I’m only slightly below breaking even on series bets. The higher seed who gets home ice advantage went 23-7 last 2 years, but they are 1-3 in the conference finals. The only upsets in round one last 2 playoffs were Florida +250 vs Boston and Seattle +210 vs Colorado. Colorado beat Winnipeg as the lower seed, but favored to win the series. So only 2 of the last 16 round one series featured an upset. That’s probably why Play Now doesn’t want me parlaying a whole bunch of series favorites. Good chance they lost money on those last 2 playoffs.
My Playoff Bracket
My insistence on filling out a fill bracket every year tends to create more embarrassment that pride, especially when a team you have going deep is knocked out early. Still, the dream of filling out a perfect bracket is what compels me to throw my feet into the fire once more. Years of embarrassment would be wiped away with one perfect score. Ultimately though, you should be more focused on game-to-game wagers, because key injuries, goalies going hot and cold, allow for adaptation instead of getting locked into a position. Favorites dominated the last 2 round ones, and were more profitable -1.5 than moneyline, I’m just not betting any pucklines in game ones this year.
Click on the series headline to be taken directly to the chat thread.
STL @ WPG:
As already disclosed in the chat, Winnipeg is my pick to win this series, which was difficult considering my desire to see the Canadian team advance. Also, difficult because betting Jets to lose was my most successful playoff strategy the last couple opening rounds, repeatedly falling short in the post-season. Though they do have a habit of getting knocked out by recent or future Stanley Cup winners. Additional difficulty choosing Jets is my ticket on the Blues bandwagon the last 2 months, a wagon I’ll need to disembark if picking Winnipeg.
Blues solicited more total model money, but I’m not betting them -1.5 goals because road dogs -1.5 were a terrible bet previous round one. I’ll probably bet the loser of game one to win game two, but there’s a big tax on “zig zag” betting in playoffs, so we’ll see if that’s palatable. I’m going with my largest model position and picking Jets -180, but given that recent Blues bandwagon expedition, +150 is an awfully tempting number.
COL @ DAL:
Colorado has moved from -110 to -155 to win the series on the news that Roberston is week-to-week and will miss game one. The Avs were my pick on Tuesday, and I like them even more if Robertson misses significant time. Their game one moneyline has moved from -115 to -122, my betting models like Colorado moneyline, so that’s my pick. My pick was logged before Robertson news broke, but my sister might consider sprinkling a little on the puckline -1.5 goals. Over/under was a tougher call.
NJ @ CAR:
Carolina is my pick to win this series in 5 games and I’m tailing my betting models on the home moneyline game one, but there’s something holding me back from making a larger wager, possibly painful repressed memories of sour relationships with playoff Canes. Round 1 does feel like a safe space, with danger and heartbreak lurking in round two.
OTT @ TOR:
WARNING: I’m generally terrible at betting Toronto in the playoffs. You’ve been warned. My betting models like the Ottawa moneyline in game one, so seeing my pick as Leafs moneyline is suspicious. I did come genuinely close to picking Ottawa, what pulled me away was Toronto being hot at home, Ottawa cold on the road. My sister is going to abstain from the opening game, likely to bet the loser in game two (unless the zig zag price is obscene).
MIN @ VEG:
The above statements were written before the lines were released and models consulted. Upon further consultation, the mods liked Minnesota moneyline. But my initial strategy of leaning home team and Vegas being 10-2 in their last 12 meetings means Vegas moneyline is my game one bet. I have them winning in 5 games but won’t lock myself into that distribution.
MTL @ WSH:
Washington is my series pick and preferred by my betting models, so Caps moneyline is my bet in game one. That's the simple arithmetic that gave birth to this wager. Capitals make me nervous though, crediting Colby Armstrong's take they bust their nut on the Ovie goal record. Though I'll bet them -1.5 goals in game 2 if they lose game 1. Goaltending is one cause for concern for Washington. Logan Thompson has been injured the last couple weeks and was leaking goals prior to the injury. Lindgren was below average as his replacement. I picked under 5.5 but my sister is abstaining. Under 5.5 is part of a general strategy in playoffs, not my feeling for this game specifically.
EDM @ LA:
The LA Kings are my series pick entirely because of the Oilers injury situation and Kings dominating on home ice this season. That being said, I’ll hop off that bandwagon pretty quick if Oilers steamroll them out of the gate. LA is +115 on the series line and currently -118 to win game one, which I suppose means oddsmakers like them to win the first match but lose the series. These teams have played 34 games in the last 4 years and Oilers won 21 (62%) with a similar W% in both cities. Oilers are 10-6 in LA since 2021/22. Another concern is that Stuart Skinner has been worse than last year, and if Oilers can’t stop pucks, they’re not winning this series.
FLA @ TB:
Panthers are my series pick and received more model support game one than Tampa, so FLA ML is my wager. Yet it’s worth noting that Tampa -1.5 goals received substantial support too, and arguably the better goaltender (last playoffs notwithstanding). The last 24 games these teams played were split 12 wins each, both teams 6-6 at home. While both are traditionally much tougher to beat at home, there has not been any significant home ice advantage last 4 years head-to-head. That does make me feel better about my Florida moneyline bet, also my performance betting Panthers in Tampa was excellent those 12 games.
Good luck and come join me in the chat for free this long weekend!