2024 Best NHL Contracts
Welcome to my 2024 best NHL contracts list, the first without either Cap Friendly or Cap Geek to directly cite as a reference. This is the end of an era and the early leader to fill that massive void is PuckPedia, but having visited the site a few times it’s not the same and unlikely I’ll be leaning on it too heavily. Losing the historical data does not affect me because that’s already in my own database. I’ve been tracking salary data for 2 decades and have nearly every contract signed since August 2005 in my spreadsheet (there are a few who played zero games that I don’t have, but Cap Friendly didn’t have those either). That massive database is the foundation of my contract analytics, with midseason free agency predictions coming soon.
The good news is, whatever impact Cap Friendly’s disappearance might have on my life can be easily offset by my own spreadsheet building skill. Having all that data in one easy to navigate site was remarkably convenient, but it’s not hard harvesting that from transaction logs. Puckpedia is a dud, which is not a criticism of the information on their site, but rather the format. The original Cap Geek nailed the perfect setup, which was ripped off by Mr Friendly when Mr Geek passed away. If they basically cloned Cap Friendly, there would be no copyright infringement, not that Washington would care. The Hockey News hired former Friendly staffers and look poised to possibly fill that void if they so desire.
On the bright side, the disappearance of Cap Friendly does diminish the ability of people fact-check my historical best and worst lists, but my own paranoia about errors leads to plenty of fact checking on my end. Now that the Cap Friendly eulogy is behind us, let’s re-establish focus on why we’re here today, the league’s best contracts. I have posted one of these annually for more than a decade, and it has always been intended as the “best bargain”, excluding the highest wage earners. There’s a strong case that whoever is currently the best player in the league has the best contract because elite dominance is generational and remarkably difficult to acquire.
McDavid and MacKinnon making $12M per year is arguably a bargain because either could have made whatever they desired on the open market, but didn’t want to max out their bank accounts because it limits management’s ability to surround them with optimal teammates. That dedication to maximizing championship rings instead of earnings is admirable, my annual best bargains list has always excluded the highest paid (you can browse through all of them in my Thought Vault), and maintaining consistency is why these are the best bargains under $10M AAV (noting that I have not raised it in the last few years as the cap increased). Double digits is just a great cut-off.
Last year’s champion was determined in a tournament of Twitter polls, but that idea was turfed due to my declining Twitter audience. It was fun to run daily contract polls in past summers, but with all due respect to my followers/readers, my opinion should carry extra weight given the depth of my experience grading hockey investments. Jack Hughes won last year’s tournament convincingly and retains his biggest bargain championship belt despite his team’s embarrassing collapse last season. Jack missed 20 games and doesn’t play goalie, but still produced at an elite level when on the ice. It helped his case that some of his top competitors also experienced scoring regression.
Note this blog draft was created in August, and I’ve been chipping away at it for the last 4 months, pre-occupied with the season. But Dec 31, 2024 is the hard deadline to post my 2024 Best NHL Contracts List. The original order has been altered since August and a few slow starters were bounced. That’s another reason for procrastination, there was pending mind changes. Nuge and Hyman were the two big ones. The hope is the extra time, adding bits and pieces each week, boosts the final product.
1. Jack Hughes
2023 Rank: 1
Age: 23
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $8M
Signing GM: Tom Fitzgerald, Nov 30, 2021
The 2023/24 season was an unmitigated disaster for the New Jersey Devils, missing the playoffs despite being considered a Cup contender by oddsmakers as the schedule began. One of the big reasons for that plunge was playing 20 games without Jack Hughes, who scored at a 98-point pace when healthy. Jack was not the problem with New Jersey, unless you’re referring to his absence. I didn’t watch enough Devils games to say with certainty that Jack bore no responsibility for the porous defense, especially considering the important roles that centers play in defending. The net benefit of letting him cheat towards the offensive zone likely outweigh the back-end risk.
The Devils made moves to solidify that leaky back-end and sat first place in the conference at Christmas break. They’ll need Jack Hughes healthy and productive to sustain the top seed, but the bargain-status of this deal is not contingent on the team having post-season success. $8M for a 100-point center is so far down the spectrum that New Jersey missing the playoffs last year didn’t knock him out of the top spot. Though had he played 82 games and they missed, that may have triggered deeper introspection. My algorithm priced his first half stat line at $13M, so the magnitude of this bargain is increasing with time. Unlikely we’ve seen the ceiling yet.
2. Tim Stützle
2023 Rank: 3
Age: 22
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $8.35M
Signing GM: Pierre Dorion, Sep 7, 2022
Tim Stützle regressed from 92 to 70 points but didn’t fall down the list because he’s not the only big bargain from last summer to slip, and frankly he’s young enough that may just be a blip in the radar with the team disappointing. At the end of each season, I forecast the remaining years of every contract based on the output most recently recorded. Even after a 70-point campaign at age 21, there is more “remaining value above compensation” than everyone but Hughes. The one thing that Stutzle provides that Hughes doesn’t is grit and physical play, with roughly 10 times more hits. Tim should reach 100, Jack will be lucky to get 10.
For a while it looked like Timmy Stu retroactively deserved to be the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, and that might still be true. At the moment I’m typing this, he has 254 NHL PTS and Lafreniere has 154, Byfield 91, Raymond 178. That’s a big lead, but #1 that year took longer to develop and has closed the gap. Lafreniere signed a 7-year deal for nearly a million dollars less AAV, so perhaps he’ll rank higher than Stu on next year’s list. Stutzle scored 39 PTS in his first 35 games in the current schedule, putting him just shy of a 100-point pace with the season nearly half done.
3. Matthew Tkachuk
2023 Rank: 4
Age: 26
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $9.5M
Signing GM: Brad Treliving, July 22, 2022
Matthew Tkachuk is a Stanley Cup champion, making this one of the most successful Calgary Flames deals in the salary cap era. That championship pedigree makes an argument that Matty deserves to be ahead of Stutzle, but that one is cheaper with more remaining term. Hughes doesn’t have any hardware either, but that alone is not a primary factor considering a large majority of the players on this list have zero titles. Tkachuk’s PTS per 82 GP dropped by 23 in his title season, but that didn’t hold him back come playoff time. Hard miles on the odometer is my primary concern possibly leading to a gradual decline.
This player is a menace to play against and has a higher offensive ceiling than his brother. His hits per 82 GP peaked at 193 in the pandemic-shortened 2021 season then dropped to 70 by his first year in Florida, but it rebounded to 150 by the Stanley Cup season. That might not be sustainable if you want him to stay healthy and max scoring output for the next 6 years. Since 2019, his 2 highest scoring seasons were the two with under 100 hits. That physicality was a huge asset in the playoffs, but he has only breached 100 PTS in season with under 100 hits. It’s easy to find players to throw 100 hits, very difficult to find 100 PTS.
4. Nikita Kucherov
2023 Rank: not ranked (decided by polls before 144-point explosion)
Age: 31
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $9.5M
Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, July 10, 2018
The Tampa Bay Lightning won both their Stanley Cups while Kucherov was cashing paycheques from this deal (well maybe not cashing any in playoffs, but you get the point), missing the entire 2021 regular season before scoring 32 PTS that playoffs. His regular season scoring rate per 82 GP exceeded 100 points in those where he played games, posting the second highest point total of his career (113) in 2023/24 before celebrating his 30th birthday in June 2023. If you downgraded his 2024 point projection based on expected decline of 30-year-olds, the Russian star made you look stupid, breaking through to a higher-level scoring 144 PTS.
By Christmas break at age 31, Kucherov was tied for 4th in league scoring, defying Father Time’s best attempts at hindering output. If you want to take other players producing at this level at this age in the salary cap era to forecast how the final 3 years unfold, you’ll be dealing with a microscopic sample size. I had to take the next closest (mostly substantially inferior) then calculate % growth/decline, then apply that to the 144. Only 2 other players have topped 100 PTS in their age 30 season, JT Miller and Brad Marchand, who barely hit the century mark. Projecting how this will finish is anyone’s guess. We’re in unchartered waters lacking modern comparables.
5. Quinn Hughes
2023 Rank: 12
Age: 25
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $7.9M
Signing GM: Jim Benning, Oct 1, 2021
The battle for 5th place was decided by Norris trophy voters who chose Quinn Hughes over Cale Makar, both of whom have 3 years left on their deals. Personally, I’d rather have Makar on my team than Quinn, but one is more than a million dollars cheaper and thus qualifies as a bigger bargain. Colorado fans please direct your hate mail at award voters, not me. Both players hit the 90-point milestone, which had only been accomplished by defensemen twice in the previous 20 years (by Roman Josi and Erik Karlsson), and these two dynamic play drivers are among the best in the salary cap era.
Both players are likely to return here next season when trophies and playoff games will once again choose the better deal for me (Makar is currently -145 to win the Norris, Hughes +115, the rest of the field again far behind). There was a moment early in the first round against Nashville when Preds forwards were making a concerned effort to finish their checks and pound Hughes into the boards. He was often seen returning to the bench grimacing in pain. That’s when I was ready to drink the Murley Kool-Aid, but the team persevered and won the series. His size was not an issue in the next round, as Nashville was uniquely constructed with a punishing forecheck.
6. Cale Makar
2023 Rank: 5
Age: 26
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $9M
Signing GM: Joe Sakic, July 24, 2021
This list endeavors to rank the best bargains not the best players, which is why Quinn ranked higher, but make no mistake that Cale is an absolute bargain compared to what he could solicit on the open market (assuming he accepted the highest bid and didn’t take less to stay). If Heiskanen-Hughes-Makar all became unrestricted free agents on the same day and accepted the highest bid for their services, there is little doubt in my mind Makar gets the biggest number. He’s in the conversation for best defensemen ever to play the game, and that’s coming from a long-time Red Wings fan. Isolating everyone on this list purely on the unicorn scale, none tip the spectrum as far as Makar.
The only time Makar has been less than a point per game was his rookie season in 2020. Yes, his stats get boosted playing so much power play time with MacKinnon and Rantanen, two of the top offensive talents in the world, which would be my rebuttal for those making the statistical argument that Makar is a bigger “bargain” than Hughes (Pettersson-Miller are good, but not MVP level). Just from watching the games, Cale Makar is the closest proxy to a modern-day Bobby Orr. You could call him “generational”, but there have been a few generations between Orr and Makar. He’s in a higher tier than plain generational.
7. Miro Heiskanen
2023 Rank: 9
Age: 25
Remaining Term: 5 years
Cap Hit: $8.45M
Signing GM: Jim Nill, July 17, 2021
My primary criticism with last summer’s polling tournament was Miro Heiskanen finishing 9th when my seeding had him as a top 4 bargain following his 73-point campaign at age 23 with 6 years remaining. Miro also missed time due to injury and regressed in scoring output, but his team was not negatively affected like New Jersey. The Stars were among the league’s best teams and eliminated the 2 previous Stanley Cup champions in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Heiskanen’s scoring rate dropped from 73 to 54 despite playing the same amount on the power play, but some of that is attributable to defensive responsibilities in tough minutes.
Miro was initially ranked higher on this list back in September, but his slow start to the current season led to a demotion, currently on a 37-point pace. The Stars only have 3 power play points from their D at Christmas and Miro is getting a majority of the minutes, but not getting the job done with the man advantage. Thankfully he plays a key role at both ends of the ice. This is the type of player you always want out on the ice against the other team’s best players, not someone you’re trying to get protected minutes to boost their stat lines. Winning your minutes playing regularly against McDavid, MacKinnon and the west’s elite players is a difficult task.
8. Moritz Seider
2023 Rank: NA
Age: 23
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $8.55M
Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, Sep 19, 2024
Disclaimer: As a lifelong Red Wings fan, my opinion may be subject to bias, additionally as the owner of a few Moritz Seider rookie cards and pieces of his jersey from his rookie season (purchased at a card show), I’m financially invested in his future and public perception of his value. Just like Jim Cramer is legally required to tell you if he’s pumping a stock he owns, my self interest requires disclosure. This is one of the best young defensemen in the league, a coveted right-hand shot, excellent at both ends of the ice. Physical, big, strong, the whole package.
The only thing that confuses me about this contract was why it took until days before the season to get it done. My conspiracy theory was agent Claude Lemieux trying to do Yzerman dirty and hold out for what the kid could command on the UFA market, but the number they signed for feels like something Stevie would have happily signed a year ago. Frankly, given the term left there would likely some Generals Managers who would happily trade 3 more years Quinn Hughes for 7 more years of cost-certainty Seider. At Christmas Mo had 85 hits, Quinn Hughes had 5. What would you rather have in the playoffs? Recall, Detroit passed on Hughes to pick Zadina, which would bother me more if I didn’t live in Vancouver, where it’s been entertaining watching him play regularly.
9. Brady Tkachuk
2023 Rank: 9
Age: 25
Remaining Term: 4 years
Cap Hit: $8.2M
Signing GM: Pierre Dorion, Oct 14, 2021
Like his brother Matt, Brady Tkachuk is a menace to play against. Matty might have the higher offensive ceiling, but Brady is arguably the tougher of the two, certainly if you are using total hits thrown as your primary metric. The team’s rebuild has not been progressing at the rate many (including myself) expected, but nobody is faulting Brady individually for that shortcoming. The decision to draft Tkachuk in 2018 left their 2019 pick unprotected, but fortunately for them Colorado lost the lottery and received Bowen Byram instead of Jack Hughes. Buffalo would likely need to include a few draft picks and prospects to convince Ottawa to trade Tkachuk for Byram.
Most of the Senator’s struggles hindering their evolution has been preventing goals, not scoring them. I’m not commenting about the culpability of the top players in that deficiency, given their best 2 players both made this list. The moment the team began getting solid goaltending from Ullmark in the current schedule, they caught fire. If you polled the league for least favorite player to face, both Tkachuks would surely rank high, but I would rank Matthew as the bigger “rat”. Brady comports himself with more class. The same concern for wear and tear on the body throwing 200 hits per year may not be sustainable into his 30s. You could get a David Backes situation.
10. Josh Morrissey
2023 Rank: not ranked (chosen by webpolls)
Age: 29
Remaining Term: 4 years
Cap Hit: $6.25M
Signing GM: Kevyn Cheveldayoff, Sept 12, 2019
The Winnipeg Jets catastrophic loss of defense depth pre-pandemic arguably should have sparked a full teardown and rebuild, but the evolution of Josh Morrissey allowed the team to bounce back faster than seemed possible. That included Josh evolving into an effective power play quarterback, with his average power play minutes per game steadily increasing throughout his career (the early part of which had a depth chart blockade). His 37 PTS in 2022 was a career high at age 26, which might have fooled a few into thinking that was his apex, then he more than doubled it in 2023, logging more than 24 minutes per game.
The Jets set a new record for best start to a season and Morrissey is near point per game logging 24:30 average ice time through Christmas, with an estimated free agent value just a shade under $11M. Aside from Connor Hellebuyck, this is their most important player. They even managed to have success last season when Kyle Connor missed a few weeks due to injury, but they haven’t had to play that long without Morrissey since before the pandemic. Not an aggressively physical defender but did peak at 150 hits in 2022 and isn’t shy to throw the body around.
11. Tage Thompson
2023 Rank: 2
Age: 27
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $7.1M
Signing GM: Kevyn Adams, Aug 30, 2022
Tage Thompson is yet another entry on this list who regressed from last season (dropping from a 99-point pace down to 65), but injuries played a factor in limiting his games played and possibly also his effectiveness when playing. The ability of Tage to elude injury for the duration of this deal is a legit concern given his history and big body, but if they can Mark Stone him, being injury prone isn’t necessarily a concern, unless it bleeds over into this play or the team sucks in his absence. The guy is a force of nature with a puck on his stick and for Sports Center’s sake, let’s hope that train keeps rolling forward full power.
There has been recovery in Tage’s production in the current schedule, but below a point per game. My algorithm has him producing at a $9.6M level, so even at his current 71-point rate, he’s still in bargain territory. Can’t say that I’ve watched enough Sabres games closely to judge what blame he carries for the team’s struggles, but he was demoted further down the order compared to last year’s bargains. Perhaps the secret is finding another Jeff Skinner type that seemed to help unlock that higher level in 2023 when Tage scored 47 goals. I’m still a believer, but with more skepticism than last year.
12. Kirill Kaprizov
2023 Rank: not ranked (blame democracy)
Age: 27
Remaining Term: 2 years
Cap Hit: $9M
Signing GM: Bill Guerin, Sept 21, 2021
Kirill Kaprizov and his agent were able to leverage the threat of returning to Russia to get their ideal contract from the Minnesota Wild, yet it still proved to be a big bargain. He scored 51 PTS in 55 GP as a rookie, and this is a large sum of money to give any player with only 55 GP of NHL experience. The caveat being that he came to the league older than most top prospects, and arrived fully developed. Over the first 3 seasons of this deal, he averaged 103 PTS per 82 GP. Forwards who can hit the century mark in scoring are worth north of $11M, not $9M.
If my memory serves me correctly, the delay getting this deal done wasn’t about salary but term; that Kaprizov wanted less and Guerin wanted more. The Wild will be out of salary cap Hell when this expires and Kirill the thrill will be getting damned near whatever he wants. The cap is expected to be higher, so something around 8 years and $11M AAV is entirely plausible, if not higher. You’re unlikely ever to find that contract on my annual list of best bargains, but let’s celebrate the fiscal productivity of the current deal. He’s currently the betting favorite to win the MVP, given that he’s carrying Minnesota on his back.
13. Nico Hischier
2023 Rank: not ranked (blame democracy)
Age: 25
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $7.25M
Signing GM: Ray Shero, Oct 18, 2019
Among the top 2-way centers in the league, Nico Hischier has become a perennial contender for the Selke trophy, giving the Devils among the league’s most potent 1-2 punches down the middle (credit the scouting staff for their prowess with first overall picks). I’ll be the first to admit this contract did not initially ping my best list (or my Devils best list) because he was a 50ish point player when it was signed and year one was the worst statistical season of his career (injury shortened). It wasn’t until we emerged from the pandemic in 2021/22 that the former 1st overall pick broke out to the next level of a 70ish point player and became a Selke contender.
Once the Hischier we know now emerged from that pandemic cocoon, it did not take me long to hop aboard the bandwagon. Frankly I was disappointed with his poor showing in last summer’s polling tournament and thought he deserved to rank in the top 15. He was seeded in my top 15, but voters didn’t share my sentiment, opting instead for some of the younger, hotter trends of the day. There’s not enough audience left on Twitter to do that anymore, but perhaps in the coming summer I’ll introduce a blog-based polling tournament. The clock is slowly running out on this bargain, and the next contract will be expensive. His mid-season stat line prices him as a $10M player.
14. Kyle Connor
2023 Rank: not ranked (blame democracy)
Age: 27
Remaining Term: 2 years
Cap Hit: $7.1M
Signing GM: Kevyn Cheveldayoff, Sept 28, 2019
Kyle Connor is making his final appearance on my annual best bargain list, with 2 seasons remaining and expiring deals being excluded. Kyle’s goals per 82 games over the first 5 years were 47, 41, 49, 31, and 43. Considering goals tend to be worth more than assists on the open market (except for players over 100 PTS), that has given him a competitive advantage over his fellow bargains for best con status. While it’s hard assigning a dollar value based on “fun to watch”, he’s a player that jumps off the screen when you’re watching the Jets play.
This deal was unequivocally a home run for Winnipeg, who along with Morrissey, Hellebuyck, and Scheifele laid a solid foundation to recover from some giant roster losses. There are a few longer-term deals to younger up-and-coming players who maybe could have occupied this spot instead, but Kyle’s outstanding production to start the current season was a major contributing factor to that historic start. Sure, the Jets were able to sustain winning without Connor last year while injured, but he has 47 PTS in 36 GP, which prorated for 82 games puts him at a $12.3M expected free agent value.
15. Joel Eriksson Ek
2023 Rank: not ranked
Age: 27
Remaining Term: 5 years
Cap Hit: $5.25M
Signing GM: Bill Guerin, July 2, 2021
When Joel Eriksson-Ek signed this 8-year contract back in July 2021 at age 24, his career high point total was 30 (but that was in the 56-game 2021 schedule, which equated to a 44-point campaign). My algorithm priced his stat line at roughly $500K less than deserved just for PTS/ice, but he was young enough that growth was likely and was already playing a very important role as a shutdown center (finishing 4th in Selke voting in 2021). In each of the first 3 years of this treaty, he set new career highs in points. Given that he’s now in the Selke conversation every year, scoring at a rate exceeding his pay grade, my grading algorithm awarded this a 92% score.
He’s centering their top line, top power play, and kills penalties. Last season he logged 267 shots and 169 hits. How many centers have logged at least 250 shots and 150 hits in a season since 2005? Only Brady Tkachuk who plays wing more than center. If you drop that to 200 shots, 150 hits, up pops David Backes, Vincent Trochek, J.T Miller, Ryan Kesler, all highly valued assets who never beat both JEE’s 267 shots and 169 hits. This is unicorn territory. Admittedly my EFA algorithm can’t possibly account for his defensive contribution, but even just on his scoring rate in the current schedule, he’s $1M underpaid.
Honorable Mentions:
Jason Robertson 2 yrs, @ $7.75M
R. Nugent-Hopkins 5 yrs, @ $5.1M
Zach Hyman 4 yrs, @ $5.5M
Matt Boldy 6 yrs, @ $7.0M
Robert Thomas 7 yrs, @ $8.1M
Nick Suzuki 6 yrs, @ $7.9M
Clayton Keller 4 yrs, @ $7.2M
Vincent Trocheck 5 yrs, @ $5.6M
Drake Batherson 3 yrs, @ $5.0M
Artturi Lehkonen 3 yrs, @ $4.5M
Kent Johnston 3 yrs, @ $1.8M
Adrian Kempe 2 yrs, @ $5.5M
Filip Gustavsson 2 yrs, @ $3.8M
Pyotr Kochetkov 3 yrs, @ $2.0M
Kirill Marchenko 3 yrs, @ $3.9M
Biggest Expiring Bargains:
Leon Draisaitl, $8.50M
Marco Rossi, $0.86M
Jonathan Drouin, $2.50M
Travis Konecny, $5.50M
Evan Bouchard, $3.90M
Mikko Rantanen, $9.25M
Matt Duchene, $3.00M
Mikael Granlund, $5.00M
Kevin Lankinen, $0.88M
Joey Daccord, $1.20M
Gabriel Vilardi $3.44M
Lukáš Dostál, $0.81M
Fabian Zetterlund, $1.45M
Noah Dobson, $4.00M
Shea Theodore, $5.20M
Bowen Byram, $3.85M
Mackenzie Blackwood, $2.35M
Logan Thompson, $0.77M
Alexis Lafrenière, $2.33M
Sam Bennett, $4.43M