2024 Worst NHL Contracts
Welcome to my 2024 worst NHL contract list, which always solicits substantially more clicks than my best list, because our species takes more pleasure in the failures of others than successes. That’s just how our brains are wired, not unlike slowing down to look at the accident on the other side of the highway. This list is mourning the tragic loss of Johnny Gaudreau, who was scheduled to be prominently featured here before his passing. He booked a 1-way ticket to Robidas Island in the sky. My heart goes out to his family and teammates. One of my teammates died in bantam mid-season, struck by a car, and it was among the most terrible experiences of my life. I would not wish that upon anyone, except maybe Claude Lemieux…
If you are a connoisseur of bad deals, someone who enjoys the schadenfreude of investments turned sour, you’re not alone. I’ve been doing this for years, and the bad deals always solicits a larger audience. Does that make you a bad person? Maybe, but I’m not casting judgement. I’m the one making a spectacle of this financial misery being suffered by various fan bases to advance my own writing career and grow my audience. My writing this post was a worse moral transgression than your click, or at least it would if I did not devote an equal amount of time to my best contract list. My driving force is highlighting successes and failures so we can learn from history and be smarter in the next negotiation.
Contract nerds are now fighting for survival in this new dystopian world with a massive void of salary cap friendliness. I’m one of a small number of people who has the data and spreadsheet skill to replicate Cap Friendly functions, but the whole day-to-day cap machinations (that made it so valuable for purchase) are not really my concern. Fans/media (probably even teams) used that site to calculate if certain trade scenarios were even possible, but that’s not my jam. For me it was just the best place to get new contract data, but transaction logs can serve the same function with less convenience.
Earlier this year I even copy/pasted the entire Cap Friendly database to error check my own. The two main takeaways from that project were, 1) when Cap Friendly’s data and mine were different, Google searching press releases revealed my data was correct more than often than not, 2) my database has hundreds of deals that could not be found on that site. My own historical database is larger and more accurate, which is why my anxiety level has not spiked since Cap Friendly was terminated. More doubt (and part of the reason for the delay posting this list) came from players previously designated as overpaid having better seasons than the last.
Two contracts in particular offer some risk if you’re a prognosticator making an official proclamation of badness, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Timo Meier. Both deals were reasonably well received at the time they were signed, neither raising alarms at my first glance. Earning their year one salaries could have been attained by being the same player they were prior to signing, but both took a giant step backwards immediately on their new contracts. Meier had a brutal start to the season then improved in the 2nd half, while Dubois was criticized for ostensibly the entire schedule for appearing to lack effort.
The risk for me is that Meier especially is in a situation surrounded by lethal weapons where he could catch fire any moment and make me look foolish for declaring his deal to be among the league’s worst. I’m less concerned about a Dubois overpaid declaration biting me in the ass, except that he was traded to Washington and he has a decent shot at sustaining power play time which could boost his output if he can keep the job. If all he cared about was getting that giant pay day and doesn’t care about competing for a championship, then he’ll be a staple on this list every September for the foreseeable future.
Please note this list was initially constructed back in September, and slowly finished over the next 4 months. The order was tweaked based on the pre-Christmas stats of these players.
1. Jonathan Huberdeau
2023 Rank: 5
Age: 31
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $10.5M
Signing GM: Brad Treliving, Aug 4 2022
Step 1 to building an annual list of the worst contracts in the league is to forecast the remaining expected stats based on the most recent season, then flush that through an “expected free agent value” model for the entire remainder, then subtract that number from the salary owed (I actually adjusted for the expected cap increase next year too). Huberdeau clocked in as $55M overpaid, while next worst was $34M (the smallest negative on this list was -$15M). He scored 115 PTS his last season in Florida, and 55 his first season in Calgary, followed up by 52 in year one of this 8-year stinker. Unless the Flames strength and conditioning coach can talk Huberdeau into taking up an intense off-season street cycling regiment, the Flames are stuck with this albatross.
The first 6 games of the current schedule resulted in 6 PTS from Jonny, and if he can get back into the 80s or 90s, this deal ain’t so bad. There’s just too much runway remaining for a player after his 30th birthday. It has helped Huberdeau and Kadri that the team seems to be trying a “rebuild on the fly” instead of bottoming out for a shot at generational talent. I’m not trying to be critical of Conroy’s strategy. Bottoming out didn’t work for Detroit, who were one of the league’s worst teams for 5 years and never had a top 3 pick (prompting the league to change the lottery formula). If Flames stink for 3 years then start ascending, they’ll be doing so as their biggest contract is likely to be crashing. Try for a few years, while stocking the farm, then maybe bottom out.
2. Darnell Nurse
2023 Rank: 3
Age: 29
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $9.25M
Signing GM: Ken Holland, Aug 6, 2021
According to the rules and conditions of my annual worst contracts list, players who just won the Stanley Cup are ineligible, unless they barely played. Nurse was within 1 goal of being completely excluded from this list, but Sam Reinhart provided me the opportunity to rant about this massive debilitating overpayment that cost them Broberg and Holloway. If the cap hit was $6M it would not be on this list, but that hypothetical scenario could never have happened because Nurse would never have signed that contract, instead testing unrestricted free agency. Long-term that would have been better for Oilers success, but at the time this fell into the classic Ken Holland “we can’t afford to lose this player” (see my Detroit worst contract list for more on that philosophy).
Sure, gritty/tough defenseman are valued in the playoffs, but for this amount of money they need to be driving offense too. Sadly he’s not driving the defensive game either, as he was widely considered to by a big liability in his own end of the ice last post-season. He earned this contract by feasting on a weak Canadian division in the 2021 covid-shortened schedule when he scored at a 53-point pace, now they’ll be lucky to get 35 out of him going forward. He’s noticeably more productive in the early part of the current schedule, shooting and hitting plenty, also getting more involved in the offense. This looks slightly less bad than September.
3. Sean Couturier
2023 Rank: injury exempt
Age: 32
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $7.75M
Signing GM: Chuck Fletcher, Aug 26, 2021
When Sean Couturier signed this extension back in 2021, it felt like a fantastic investment on a Selke-level center, equally effective on the power play and penalty kill. But alas that’s not how reality played out. Unfortunate injuries derailed that once promising career and players who find themselves on this list as a biproduct of injury perhaps deserve an asterix, but full exemptions require a permanent stash on long-term injured reserve. It’s great news from a humanitarian standpoint that he made the comeback and living the dream once again, but the team has demoted him to a lesser role and his ice time is currently far below his paygrade.
When Sean first return from injury, Philly improved and it appeared like he may deserve credit, but as the schedule progressed, his output diminished and chances of winning another Selke vanished. In the current schedule, he had 1 point in his first 7 games before a 5-point night, followed up by a pair of pointless games. If you don’t count that 5-point night, he’s be on a 33-point pace in the first half. Even with the 5 pointer, he’s still only producing at a $5.4M level with plenty of time remaining in his mid-to-late 30s. If he can ever become the player he used to be, this is a good contract. I’m hoping to be proven wrong, I just wouldn’t bet money on it.
4. Brendan Gallagher
2023 Rank: 6
Age: 32
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $6.5M
Signing GM: Marc Bergevin, Oct 14, 2020
If you visit my Montreal Canadiens worst contracts list, you’ll find Brendan Gallagher right at the top. For the 4 seasons prior this deal beginning, Brendan was consistently between 54-60 PTS per 82 games. A legit top-6 winger who could score 30 goals while playing a physical-agitating style bringing added value in the playoffs, helping Montreal advance to the Stanley Cup final in 2021. Shortly after Tampa celebrated their victory, Gallagher’s previous bargain treaty expired and this extension began. The fact this pest had been underpaid by approximately $10M across the previous 5 years (per 82 GP) meant extra cheddar needed adding to keep him off the free agent market.
What they got was 30ish PTS and diminishing ice time, a $2M player getting triple his production. Ultimately this overpayment played a role in Marc Bergevin’s dismissal, but with the team in rebuilding mode the last few years, the damage was minimal. If you want to make the argument that he helped them get the first overall pick, it’s a thought I’ve thrown into the Universe before, like Nikolai Khabibulin helping Chicago get Toews and Kane. No Chicago fans are buying a time machine to erase that Khabibulin signing from happening. The Habs might emerge from this blunder just fine.
5. Nikita Zadorov
2023 Rank: NA
Age: 29
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $5M
Signing GM: Don Sweeney, July 1st, 2024
Let me disclaim from the onset that what Nikita Zadorov did in Vancouver last season was impressive, as I watched nearly all of those games. The big Russian scored 20 goals in the previous 2 seasons, which is only a couple less than his goals in the previous 7 years combined. My decision to include this among the league’s worst treaties is a product of age, play style, and how past examples of these generally tend to turn out. His year-1 hits per 60 (8.1) was higher than every UFA defenseman who received a 5 or 6-year deal at age 29 or 30 in the salary cap era. Zdeno Chara had 7, but with 44 PTS.
This was a very uncommon contract to give this type of player at this age, but he’s also a very uncommon player. The early reviews have been largely negative, but from a visual entertainment perspective, he’s worth the price of admission and there’s a reason he became a cult hero in Vancouver. He passes the eye test unless you have really sharp vision, or just see mistakes on instant replay with analysts disclosing the full scope of what you’re seeing. This is the type of player teams love to have in the playoffs, not sure that’s worth the premium they paid.
6. Pierre-Luc Dubois
2023 Rank: not ranked
Age: 26
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $8.5M
Signing GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff, June 27, 2023
When Pierre-Luc Dubois was traded to the Los Angeles Kings, hockey punditry was in awe of the team’s strength down the middle, arguably among the best. Sadly for Rob Blake (and Kings fandom) that dominant depth never materialized as such because PLD was dud on arrival and the lack of effort was visually obvious. Once he won the cash for life lottery, the carrot was removed from end of stick and he began quiet quitting his way to an early retirement. No more proving anything. This was a severe case of Alex Semin syndrome. This devolved to the point where Rob Blake even had to lace up the skates for a 1-on-1 with Pierre to teach him how to move his feet.
This acquisition most certainly cost Blake some job security, especially after trading him to Washington for a slightly less bad Darcy Kuemper contract. The good news for Blake is that Kuemper improved his play moving into a better defensive environment. Dubois on the other hand sored 40 PTS in year one, but has improved to a 60ish point pace in Washington. That still puts him approximately $2.5M overpaid, but a lesser disaster than it appeared last year. If he can make some noise in the playoffs, he’s still young enough that this deal is salvageable, but that requires the player to have a little pride and play to win.
7. Ondrej Palat
2023 Rank: not ranked
Age: 33
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $6M
Signing GM: Tom Fitzgerald, July 14, 2022
When the New Jersey Devils poached Ondrej Palat from the Tampa Bay Lightning, they were buying 20 goals, 50 points, and 2 Stanley Cup rings. Bringing in a champion to mentor the young core surely felt wise in the moment, and maybe it would have been if he was also lighting up the scoreboard while teaching the kids what it takes to win. Instead, they just got the mentorship without the points, which they can afford to absorb given some of their bargains up the line-up. He dropped from 50 down to 30, making salary roughly double what the stat line warranted.
Palat logged a 32-point pace through the Christmas break, as the trend line shows no signs of upward growth. It would be interesting to catalogue all the “mentorship” type deals of former champs joining rosters on the rise, stocked with elite young talent. This one was 5 years given to a 31-year-old who had many hard miles on his odometer. What exactly is the “mentorship tax” and does it increase probability of playoff success in the next couple years? See Killorn in Anaheim. They paid him approximately $1.5M more than his stat line deserved, but the value of his stat line dopped $2M in year one. That’s a fail.
8. Tom Wilson
2023 Rank: not ranked
Age: 30
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $6.5M
Signing GM: Brian MacLellan, Aug 4, 2023
When the Washington Capitals gave Tom Wilson this extension in the summer of 2020, it was immediately earmarked for my Caps worst contracts list. There was no need to wait for Father Time to render an official verdict before rendering judgment; big body physical player coming off an injury shortened season on a 7-year term not scheduled to begin until after celebrating his 30th birthday. The extension was signed with a full year remaining on his previous treaty and what happened? Points per 82 GP dropped from 55 to 39, which my expected free agent value model valued at approximately $3.7M, which is substantially below $6.5M, and the countdown clock only just began.
The scoring rate has rebounded in the current season, just a shade under 60 at Christmas, with a projected stat line $800K above his salary, so the badness police aren’t arresting him for wasting money quite yet, but I have chronicled enough shitty deals to know that good years one or two happen all the time before sudden catastrophic collapse. Hitting the proverbial wall is a constant threat with Father Time ever vigilant, eager to throw dirty hits and destroy productivity. The Spitting Chiclets podcast praised this deal when it was signed (at least RA did) because Wilson is a “unicorn” physically. Whereas I immediately added it to my Washington Capitals worst contracts list before the first game was played.
9. Seth Jones
2023 Rank: 2
Age: 30
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $9.5M
Signing GM: Stan Bowman, July 23, 2021
When Seth Jones was a 51-point defenseman playing 26 minutes per night, my expected free agent value algorithm priced him a shade under $10M. He signed this extension prior to scoring those 51 PTS his first year in Chicago, so Stan Bowman wasn’t exactly paying market price for the production (technically he over-paid Seth’s 2021 production by $1.6M AAV). The miscalculation from a roster-building standpoint is they were nearing the end of the Kane-Toews dynasty. If this was done looking to pry that window open a little longer, it was a dismal failure, in part because illness ended Toews career.
The team was able to hit rock bottom and acquire Connor Bedard, a potentially generational talent who can spawn a dynasty of his own. Seth missed a few weeks in the first half of the current schedule with injury, but scoring at a 40-point pace by Christmas, logging 25.6 minutes per night. That level of production prorated for a full season would make him $600K overpaid. If he can elude predatory hit from Father Time and be a regular contributor to a revamped offense as Bedard evolves, he may even earn removal from my Blackhawks worst contracts list. I’m not ashamed to admit when I’m wrong.
10. Timo Meier
2023 Rank: not ranked
Age: 28
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $8.8M
Signing GM: Tom Fitzgerald, June 28, 2023
The New Jersey Devils traded a large package of prospects and draft picks in February 2023 to acquire pending unrestricted free agent Timo Meier, who was poised to be one of the top commodities available in July. He finished the schedule with 66 PTS in 78 GP, which my expected free agent value algorithm priced at approximately $8.5M, so getting him locked into an 8-year deal June 28 at $8.8M felt like a reasonable investment (albeit with a little post-30 risk for a very physical player). Once the deal officially kicked off a few months later, Timo had a brutal start to the season despite getting an opportunity to share the ice with some elite offensive talent. He did improve in the 2nd half, but at that point the damage had already been done and a top Cup contender failed to make the playoffs.
Adding this to the list after just a single season might be premature, but he’s on pace to replicate last year’s disappointing production. Given that aforementioned elite talent, the possibility of a full rebound to respectability is entirely plausible. Yet being overpaid by $3M in year one is a terrible start. Meier scored 27 PTS in his first 36 GP of the current season, which prorated would finish roughly $2M overpaid. That’s not satisfying the paygrade, with lots of time remaining and hard miles on the odometer. That was a reoccurring theme in my book detailing the 450 worst contracts in the salary cap era (all of which is on my blog for free and regularly updated).
11. Chris Tanev
2023 Rank: NA
Age: 35
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $4.5M
Signing GM: Brad Treliving, July 1st 2024
Chris Tanev is a warrior. He battles hard in the trenches and plays a valuable role on any roster. His inclusion here is entirely a function of the hard miles on his odometer (sorry if that phrase is getting over-used here, it may be time to diversify my terminology), and giving a 34-year-old warrior a 6-year deal. The price is fair for what he is right now, there just needs to be grave concern how that body is going to hold up for the duration. Or maybe the team doctors and cap geeks have conjured a Mark Stone strategy where he can be stashed on IR for most of the season then rolled out game one of the playoffs. It’s a proven winning formula and Toronto has the resources to pull off Vegas level shenanigans.
Let’s put it this way, Tanev is only the 4th defenseman in the cap era to receive at least 6 years term at age 34 or 35 (there were none at 33); Chris Pronger, Zdeno Chara, Kris Letang, and Chris Tanev. One of these things does not belong here. Perhaps the plan is not pulling a Vegas with LTIR and just paying a premium to dump the contract when he’s not worth it anymore. There had to be an exit strategy attached to the 6-year term, otherwise it just doesn’t make any sense why you’d do this. Though if he helps them win a Stanley Cup, it’s worth every penny and will be disqualified from my Leafs worst contracts list.
12. Marc-Edouard Vlasic
2023 Rank: 2
Age: 37
Remaining Term: 2 years
Cap Hit: $7M
Signing GM: Doug Wilson, July 1st, 2017
Marc-Edouard Vlasic is a two-time winner of the annual worst contract award, but with only 2 years remaining, this will be the final appearance. My blog bids farewell to a legendary bad deal and would like to extend a heartfelt thank you for all the content provided. He can take his seat in my ring of dishonor next to Mike Komisarek and Wade Redden. At least Redden had a higher offensive ceiling earlier in his career and Komisarek had “truckulence”, whereas Vlasic was more of a defensive specialist who doesn’t hit much. He peaked at 39 PTS (48 per 82) in 2016, but was back down to 28 the season this was signed.
Look on the bright side Sharks fans, this is the first year in a few that a San Jose deal was not #1 on this list and there’s only one. There are past versions of this list with a few different SJS stinkers, but you have mostly emerged from that salary cap prison and ready to begin the next era of the franchise. If this is the biggest ball and chain the young guns are dragging around, that’s good news. If you argued Vlasic clinched Celebrini, it might almost be worth the pain. There is still Logan Couture, but that one might be destined for a permanent LTIR. Robidas Island has immunity from salary cap persecution in my rule book.
13. Damon Severson
2023 Rank: not ranked
Age: 30
Remaining Term: 7 years
Cap Hit: $6.25M
Signing GM: Tom Fitzgerald, June 9, 2023
This Damon Severson contract is on its way to becoming one of the worst contracts that the New Jersey Devils have signed in the salary cap era, but on the bright side, they were able to dump this questionable investment on the Columbus Blue Jackets later the same day for a 3rd round draft pick. It was probably Jarmo Kekalainen who drew up the precise terms of the contract for NJD to offer, and belongs in the Pierre-Luc Dubois family of bad sign-and-trade deals (which is being added to my Winnipeg Jets worst contracts list soon). Damon scored 46 PTS in 2022 and 33 PTS in 2023 as his average ice time dropped by more than 3 minutes.
Some of the ice time drop was depth-chart related and the competition for blueline minutes, but a significant ATOI decline at age 28 is almost never a positive indicator. Yet Jarmo (who was fired 7 months later) decided this was a blueliner worthy of a top pair wage until age 36. Severson did get a bump in ice time upon arrival in Columbus, which you’d expect given price paid, and when prorated for 82 games was worth more money than his final Jersey season. In year two he’s scoring at a 40-point pace and my algorithm actually has him $500K underpaid, but given the term and age, I’m not rescinding my badness declaration. I’m playing the long game.
14. Colton Parayko
2023 Rank: 9
Age: 31
Remaining Term: 6 years
Cap Hit: $6.5M
Signing GM: Doug Armstrong, Sep 1, 2021
Colton Parayko played a key role in the St. Louis Blues Stanley Cup victory as a big, strong, physical defenseman reliable at both ends of the ice. The major problem being this deal didn’t kick off until 3 years later, perilously close to his 30th birthday. From a points perspective, the aging process has not substantially damaged his output, matching his career high with 10 goals at age 30 (2023/24), with a points rate very close to the Stanley Cup season. Even his ice time has remained consistent across his career, recording his highest ATOI last year. Thus far the review seems to be talking myself out of his inclusion.
The reason this still ranks among the league’s worst is because 6 years still remain, all in his dirty thirties. Even if he’s still putting up stats, one concerning number is that Jordan Binnington has a 39% xGF% with Parayko, and 49% without. That could also be a product of Parayko playing the toughest minutes with lots of defensive zone starts against top lines, but I’m serving the role of prosecutor trying to convince the jury to convict the suspect and Natural Stat Trick served as the crime lab. Most of the team had a significantly lower xGF% with Parayko than without. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, science doesn’t lie. I rest my case…
15. Tyler Seguin
2023 Rank: 4
Age: 33
Remaining Term: 3 years
Cap Hit: $9.85M
Signing GM: Jim Nill, Sep 13, 2018
The Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn contracts have made enough appearances on this blog that I’m running out of horse manure jokes, but do need disclaim opening sentence that Seguin is still an effective player. If the salary was $6M, you wouldn’t be reading this right now. He was a point-per-game sniper when the deal was earned, then dropped to into the 50-60 range the season it began, maintaining that level ever since. The good news for Stars fans is that Jamie Benn will be off the books soon, you have multiple entries on my best contracts list, and even Seguin is ranked 14 instead of last year’s 4.
Not only did he play well in the playoffs, but he scored 20 PTS in his first 19 games of the current schedule before sustaining an injury. The concern being that injury possibly affecting his play in the remaining seasons. Injuries are fine if you can stash them on LTIR and use the cap savings to stock up on roster depth for the playoffs, worse if they player tried to be a hero and play through the ailment, diminishing output. He’ll be on IR until playoffs, so Dallas will have the flexibility to add a big name at the deadline. The size of the contract might even be a net benefit in the current schedule. If Dallas win the Cup, he and Benn will be removed from my Dallas worst list and a public apology will be issued. I might even go so far as to call my own list horseshit…
Dishonorable Mentions
Josh Anderson 3 yrs, @ $5.5M
Mika Zibanejad 5 yrs, @ $8.5M
Tristan Jarry 3 yrs, @ $5.4M
Kevin Hayes 2 yrs, @ $7.1M
Pierre Engvall 6 yrs, @ $3.0M
Elvis Merzļikins 2 yrs, @ $5.4M
Drew Doughty 3 yrs, @ $11.0M
Erik Karlsson 3 yrs, @ $11.5M
Ryan Graves 5 yrs, @ $4.5M
Joel Edmundson 4 yrs, @ $3.8M
Jacob Trouba 2 yrs, @ $8.0M
Alex Killorn 3 yrs, @ $6.3M
Philipp Grubauer 2 yrs, @ $5.9M
Rasmus Ristolainen 3 yrs, @ $5.1M
Elias Pettersson 8 yrs, @ $11.6M
Biggest Expiring Overpayments:
(based on current season production)
Jamie Benn $9.50M
Cam Atkinson $5.88M
Ville Husso $4.75M
Brent Burns $8.00M
Jeff Petry $6.25M
Andrew Mangiapane $5.80M
Andrei Kuzmenko $5.50M
Andreas Athanasiou $4.25M
Alex Iafallo $4.00M
Christian Dvorak $4.45M
New Long-term Deals Off To Worst Starts
Elias Pettersson $11.6M
Jeremy Swayman $8.3M
Ilya Sorokin $8.3M
Elias Lindholm $7.8M
Matty Beniers $7.1M
Brady Skjei $7.0M
Brett Pesce $5.5M
Matt Roy $5.5M
Nikita Zadorov $5.0M
Chris Tanev $4.5M