2026 NHL Free Agency Preliminary Contract Predictions
Welcome to my preliminary look at the NHL free agency class of July 2026, featuring some big names, or least the biggest name. None of these players are eligible to extend until July 1st, including Connor McDavid, but my predictions are ready to go so no sense waiting. My final 2025 predictions will be up in the next week. Forecasting a year out has a higher error rate, especially with young players who need to show they’ve made the next step before getting paid accordingly. The cap is rapidly accelerating and the inflationary impact of the ensuing spending spree could re-shape the market. When the cap goes up, those close to the floor stay close to the floor. Everybody does not get a 15% increase up and down the talent spectrum.
There will be tons of free agency thoughts and analytics going up in my chat threads, one for free subscribers, one for VIPs. I’m offering a summer sale on annual memberships for $69 Canadian, which is 25% off the normal annual rate, and nearly 40% off the monthly rate.. You’ll get guaranteed admission into my user fantasy hockey league (possibly 2 leagues depending on demand), a few spreadsheets from me (if that floats your boat), and can access my summer betting model tutorial. I’m journaling my model recalibration and sharing some trade secrets with paid subscribers. I’ll even give you a spreadsheet to help you build your own betting models. My threads from completed playoff series are all available to free subscribers.
Setting a prediction for McDavid is tough because Edmonton will pay him whatever he wants. If he fits the Crosby-MacKinnon script, he’ll take less money for a better shot at winning championships. Eichel could get a bigger number on the open market, but will likely take a hometown tax-free discount. The elite tier of young players may buck the trend of all these 8x8 deals that became trendy the last 2 years. It might be in Bedard or Cooley’s best interests to take less term and reset under a higher cap, following the Matthews model. Joe Thornton was the king of “bet on yourself” back in his San Jose days, but did so at an older age and maxed earnings by resetting every year. It’s not yet known with the minimum will be, but $800K feels like a reasonable guess.
One note: I still have Utah as SLC in my spreadsheet. I just like Salt Lake City much more than the rest of Utah. My parents lived there for 20 years. But now that they have a real name I’m going to be calling them Utah Mammoth going forward I’ll stop calling them the Coyotes.
Forwards
Defence
Goalies
