Vote For 2025 Best NHL Contract

Welcome to my first annual “Vote For Best NHL Contract” (under $10M aav) Substack polling tournament, with a similar poll coming in the next week featuring the worst deals. 20 players received a bye to the next round, and another 40 will battle for 10 round two slots. Each bracket is ranked by initial seedings, which was done quickly as a rough guess, not a bold proclamation that one is better than the next. Given projected cap increases, this tournament is going to be highly competitive, with several young players locked into cheap prices that end when the cap could be $20M - $30M higher. That same phenomenon also diminished the badness of several worst con nominees. The best nominations were easier to compile than the worst, which was not the case in past seasons.

We are 31 days away from the opening of NHL Free Agency, which for me is like the countdown to Christmas. If you want to know what everyone will get paid, my blog might contain the most accurate guesses you’ll find online. I challenge you to find anyone better. All summer I’ll be posting a few hundred contract report cards in Substack chat, which includes a thread for free subscribers. You do need to be a subscriber to vote in the poll below, but free is fine. If you like betting on hockey, you’ll want to join the paid tier next season. I’m offering a summer sale on annual memberships ($69 Canadian) that drops the monthly rate nearly 40%. They don’t give me the whole amount up front. I need to continue producing content to get all that cash. Taking the money and running is not an option. That still needs to be earned.

UPDATE: Since posting this, Substack did pay me the whole amount for the annual memberships, but don’t worry, taking the money and running was never on the table. It just took longer than the monthlies so I made an assumption that turned out to be incorrect. This is more than just an income source for me, it’s a passion burning deep in my soul. Feels great to pay bills from my hard work and dedication!

You may want to review my 2024 Best NHL Contracts list before voting here, since several of the players competing in this year’s tournament are featured there too. The poll question is “which of these deals has the most value remaining”, not just who is the biggest nominal bargain right now (ignoring term). Would you rather have 5 years of Point at that price, or 4 years of the younger Byfield? The word “value” is purposefully ambiguous to calibrate with your own internal barometer of the meaning. There is a chat thread where I’m posting thoughts on the tournament. I LOVE having this chat space. There are always free threads for everyone to enjoy. The paywall is mostly for gambling. All my contracts and fantasy content stays free (aside from a few VIP chat threads).

The biggest problem holding this poll tournament on social media is that anyone can vote, people can vote multiple times if they have multiple accounts, or pundits with large followings can flood the poll with biased voters. Here, only subscribers can vote, so if anyone unleashes a flood into my thought factory, I’ll at least add some new subscribers. Perhaps the best advantage is the average intelligence of my audience likely being more affluent in hockey economics than your average Tweeter. Some of you have been following me for years, have read all my team-by-team best/worst lists (see Thought Vault), my annual league lists, and just random social media thoughts.

Here are the 20 players getting a bye to the next round.

Those are ordered by seeding, but also something done rapid-fire mode without much reflection or introspection. I’ll be more careful with the seeding in the next round. These polls remain open for one week. So if you’re an undecided voter, you can take your time deliberating.

UPDATE: Lots of people visiting, very few of you voting. I appreciate if you prefer letting me rank these on my own, but democracy is more fun. Click on the names

Poll 1

I’m endorsing Miro Heiskanen as the man to beat in this bracket, who did have a down year by his standards, missing 32 games to injury. Toews is 31 years old with 6 years remaining, so his candidacy is arguably questionable, especially among ardent age discriminators. If you’re ageist, Owen Power also has 6 years left and nearly a decade younger. Fox is the highest scoring blueliner in the bracket, but this was not generally considered a good year for him, as the #1 defender on a team loaded with talent who disappointed and missed playoffs.

Poll 2

Matthew Tkachuk is the top seed in poll 2, my only concern being how well that body holds up the next 5 years, but even if only plays half the regular season games any given year, he’s worth full value if healthy in playoffs. Kent Johnson’s stat line prorated for 82 GP was valued a shade under $7M, so was easily the most nominally underpaid in this bracket. Hyman had a down year and may not be bouncing back to his previous highs and age 33. Forsling provides much more value than the offense, given he’s often matched against other teams best players, and minimizes damage in those minutes as well as anyone.

Poll 3

Nico Hischier has made a few appearances on my annual best contract list, but this is the last year he’s eligible. If he had 6 yrs left at that price, he’d be pre-ranked in the top 10. That’s why Jesper Bratt is my top seed in this bracket, but Blackwood isn’t far behind. His deal was the highest seeded goalie contract, which ipso facto makes it my favourite goalie deal in the league. You can possibly blame my Wings fandom for Larkin cracking the top 60, but he’s my 5^th favorite in this poll.

Poll 4

My modelling loves the Protas deal and that kid should fire his agent. Even if he stays around 70 PTS, that stat line would be worth close to $10M in 2028 in a $113 cap. Brayden Point will score more points, but his 30^th birthday is coming soon. Though he does seem like the type of player who will age well, also though it feels like his stats would be a lot less impressive without all that Kucherov access he’s granted. Depending on the Byfield evolution, that could turn into a big bargain if he reaches a higher level of output. Nuge had a quiet regular season but has been tremendous in playoffs.

Poll 5

Marchenko received top billing in this bracket because that’s a ridiculously low price for what he produced, but this Slafkovsky contract has the potential to reach top 5 best in the league within the next 2 years if his offensive growth continues on an upward trajectory. He’s already a handful. Strome produced like a $9M player this year and is a big reason Ovechkin broke the goals record sooner than expected. Vasilevskiy bounced back from a down year, right back into the Vezina conversation.

Poll 6

This was an injury plagued season for Eriksson Ek, which hopefully is not a reoccurring problem for the next 4 years. At full health he’s a Selke contender equally valuable in both ends of the ice. Sergachev managed to stay healthy, so hopefully those broken bones are ancient history. He logged big minutes including top power play in Utah this season, and is a legit #1 defender you can match against the other team’s best line. Goal Caufield might be a safer pick, and snipers are coveted commodities. Rakell was a big bargain for what he produced this year, but in retrospect may have been seeded too high at age 32.

Poll 7

Brady has ranked high on all my recent best contract lists, but he fell down the seeding because there’s only 3 years remaining. This was a down year, plagued by injuries in the 2^nd half. He may have already touched his peak, but players with that blend of physicality and skill are hard to find. Father Time might disagree with Hellebuyck and Crosby qualifying for this tournament, but Sid the Kid has successfully eluded his grasp up to age 38. Will Hellebuyck still be Vezina caliber in 3 years? Maybe not, but the cap will be much higher as he’s trending downwards, which mutes some of the expected decline. Cirelli might belong higher with his value in the defensive zone, which my expected free agent value model does not adequately account for.

Poll 8

Kaiden Guhle had a big coming out party this season, helping drive Montreal into the playoffs. They were smart to sign this 11 months early, because it would have been more expensive had they waited. I’m undecided on Alex Vlasic’s ceiling because it’s unclear how much of that ice time will be power play. There are some young guns rising the depth chart. Clayton Keller has made a few appearances on my best contract list and his 2025 stat line was worth nearly $10M. Offense wasn’t responsible for Anton Lundell’s nomination, but watching him in the playoffs, he’s such a key player in Florida’s success. We’ll see how Jake Guentzel ages, but he was worth every penny in year one.

Thanks for voting! Check back in the chat for more thoughts!