Week 9 NHL Betting Preview

A summary of what worked and failed in week nine of the last 4 seasons (last 2 for over/under).

Week nine of the NHL season is nearly upon us and my gaze is already focused on what worked best in past week nines. My subscribers may have noticed that I did not send a picks email this week, as my recent slump sent me back to the laboratory to do more work. There were certainly some astute points of discussion in my pick breakdowns that were proven correct, but the models had a rough week and brought me down with them on Monday and Tuesday. My Game Summary worksheet was completely overhauled to allow for far more detailed tracking, and everything was getting too cluttered with all the new models I’ve been adding.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.

If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon store. My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

One of the goals of my renovation was to provide more clarity on how each model/algorithm is performing on this specific bet involving these teams in the last 30 days. So, if it says bet Pittsburgh on the visitor moneyline in Philadelphia, all its performance betting VML for Pens road games and Flyer home games the last 30 days is added up. You aren’t the only one who wants to know if there’s any weight behind that recommendation, this helps with my pick selection too. You’ll also get to see my results with whatever pick I’m sharing. I’m doing well on Pittsburgh road moneylines in the last 30 days.

One of my biggest changes this week was an overhaul of my “Game Sum” model. The newest version is using the same input data, but is only looking at the last 30 days instead of the full season, and its bet sizes are now proportional to the probability of success, not the amount of profit that bet had generated (which Tailing History and Betting Venues both use). The whole point of the model upon its creation was to tell me which wager was producing the most profit with these teams in the current season. My other models ignore the current season, though it would be pretty easy to upgrade Betting Venues to include the current schedule as well (note to self).

Historical Week 9 Results

Looking at the best market bets in past week nines, back-to-backs and road favorite pucklines (both -1.5 and +1.5) are the best categories historically, but home moneyline is my own best category, so I’m not specifically targeting home or road in the 7 days ahead, but the historical success of back-to-backs has certainly been noted to self. At this time back in 2021/22, it was the calm before the storm of the Omicron scoring boom (Tailing History will be betting every over in week 11). Unders went 25-24 last week 9, and 28-25 the year before that, so Tails will be betting more unders this week, even when the total is 6 (he hasn’t bet under 6 in the last 30 days).

Interesting to see the San Jose Sharks show up as one of the best teams historically to bet this time of year, although the bulk of that accomplishment was 2021 when they played half their games against the other shitty California teams. They did not post a profit on the moneyline last week 9 with Karlsson and Meier on fire. But week 8 is wrapping up and they are currently the leader in most profitable team to bet this week (covering +1.5 against the Rangers). Otherwise, Winnipeg to win and Montreal to lose have been the best bets historically, so note to self.

The above table is what Tailing History uses to make its picks. If you are new here and don’t know how the models work, you may want to click this link before proceeding. This week Tails will only be betting -1.5 goals for road teams with moneylines from -110 to -149 and home teams -150 to -199. Heavy favorites are better moneyline than puckline this time of year (I’ve been trending in that direction naturally). Tails should also have a few road favorites +1.5 goals. Also going over 5.5 but under for both 6 and 6.5 (opening line). He struggled this week, which I actually predicted in my last preview because he was going big on overs when the league appeared to be trending under.

Those aforementioned unders led me to one of my better over under weeks in a while (except the week isn’t over, so I should be careful what I write). Two new voices have joined the Over Under Council. Game Sum will now be making OU picks. It takes every game in the last 30 days involving either of these two teams with the same opening OU total (6.5 goals for example). It adds up the results of betting every over and under when that’s the total, then bets the one that has been more profitable. Only last 30 days. My picks graphics will also now include how every OUC member is performing on that bet with these teams in the last 30 days (all $100 wagers). It adds some context. Tails isn’t programmed (yet) to stop betting something that’s producing a large loss.

This new tracking will allow me to install model safety protocols very easily. Limit bet sizes on whatever is not working, although my OU models all bet the same amount. That includes my other new OUC voting member, Betting Goalies, who I’ve been teasing for a few weeks but didn’t finish until yesterday. It requires me to look at game logs and predict probability of either starter for every game (which I’m recording and tracking), and it makes an expected projection based on 70% goals per game in a goalie’s starts during the team’s last 10 games, and 30% goals per game full season. Multiply probability of starting versus that projection.

Some of you might have noticed I’m fairly astute with assessing the likelihood of any given goalie starting, a skill honed through decades of fantasy hockey steaming. Some of these lines and totals have changed in the time it takes me to finish a report. At least with the over under picks, I’m providing you with different averages covering the span that each algorithm uses. Yes, the over/under count will change if the total moves from 6.5 to 6, but if you see all the averages are under 6, then it’s safe to bet that total too. I’ll be providing detailed reports how every model/algorithm performs every week in my Monday Report. Come back tomorrow for more!

Here are all the model picks for Monday. I’m also trying a few picks polls to see if this generates interest.

PIT @ PHI:

This looks like a high likelihood of Alex Nedeljkovic vs Carter Hart, and if you had told me about that match-up prior to the season, I would have thought that’s an opportunity to bet Philadelphia. But Nedeljkovic has a .937 SV% in 4 games this season, missing some time due to injury. He’s been even better since returning. As a Red Wings fan, I’m skeptical that’s sustainable, but he may be back to the Carolina version of Nedeljkovic with a better defensive structure in front of him. Betting Goalies is expecting 5 goals to be scored in this game and 9 of 10 algorithms like the under. The one dissenting opinion is losing money betting over 6.5 goals in Flyer or Penguin games in the last 30 days. Everyone else is crushing under 6.5 (Betting Goalies was only born yesterday).

I’m going to take the Penguins ML at -130 (exactly what the fair line estimator thinks they should be) because I’ve been doing well betting VML on Pens road games and Flyer home games in the last 30 days. Betting Venues is going max on Flyers -1.5 goals because they have clinched in 5 of the last 8 home games vs Pitt (but only once in the last 4).

DAL @ TB:

This will almost surely be Jake Oettinger for Dallas, who does only have a .906 SV% in the last 30 days (.920 in the last 14 days). It could be either guy for Tampa, and I’m not sure it even matters. Vasilevskiy is showing rust with an .859 SV% in 4 games since returning, while Johansson isn’t much better (.874 last 2 weeks). Vasy got shelled in their last game (against Dallas no less) and probably really wants to start this one. It’s entirely plausible he could catch fire at any moment, but I’ll need to see it first. So, I like the over and Dallas ML at -105, which the fair line estimator thinks should be -156. Tailing History is also taking the Stars ML and is having great success in the last 30 days betting VMLs for Dallas road games and Tampa home games. The OU Council voted 8-2 for over 6 goals, but not all them are running a profit with that bet and these teams in the last 30 days.

CAR @ WPG:

The goaltending situation makes this game tricky, as I’m assigning a 60:40 chance for both teams. Kochetkov has been much better than Raanta, but has started 4 games in a row. They’re about to play 3 in 4 nights, and Raanta needs to get at least one. I doubt they want to play him vs Winnipeg then again against Calgary. My instinct says it’ll be Koch-Raanta-Koch. The risk of Raanta lowers what I’m willing to bet on Carolina, but the puckline +1.5 goals at -245 feels safe.

The Jets on the the other hand have started Hellebuyck 3 in a row, so this should be Brossoit’s spot in the rotation. Maybe they really want to beat Carolina, an elite team, and will use their ace. But then their next game is against Colorado inside the division, so that’s 100% Helley (who hasn’t started 5 consecutive games all season). That makes me think 60% or even higher this is Brossoit. There is a 7-3 decision for under 6 goals, but Betting Goalies likes the over (thinks there will be 6.2 goals). The risk of both back-ups possibly playing makes me nervous about that under.

SEA @ MTL:

This feels like a high likelihood of being Grubauer (.853 SV% last 30 days) vs Montembeault (.914 SV%). Montreal is no longer dead last my profitability rankings, but this has still been an awful season for my Habs picks, whether taking them to win or lose, over or under. I don’t’ have a strong opinion on this game. Most of the models like Seattle (but different picks), so I’ll make a minimum bet on their moneyline at -142 because that’s been a good pick for me the last 30 days, despite the fair line estimator telling me it is overpriced. It has since moved to -148, so the public is on Seattle.

Shorting Travel is the only model taking the Habs because the Kraken are on the 4th game of a compressed road trip. That did initially tempt me to take Montreal, but I’m running a big loss on their HMLs the last 30 days. My pick was flipped to the Kraken. There is division among the OU Council on over 6.5 goals, but none of the models betting the under are running a profit betting either team under 6.5 goals the last 30 days. These teams have been cashing overs when the total is 6.5. That being said, Betting Goalies thinks there will be 6.1 goals scored if this is Montembeault vs Grubauer. Full disclosure; I’ve been terrible at Montreal over/unders this year (but I’m doing well on over 6.5 goals the last 30 days). Take my Habs advice for what it’s worth, which may not be much.

WSH @ ARI:

Charlie Lindgren has been Washington’s best goalie with a .942 SV% the last 30 days, while Kuemper is down at .887. Charlie missed Saturday with “an illness”, so I’m putting this as a 50-50 chance he’s back. At the other end, Connor Ingram has been rock-solid with a .928 SV% the last 30 days while Vejmelka has fallen into a back-up role with his disappointing .856. Problem is, Ingram has played 5 games in a row (one in relief of a leaky Vej), so there’s a high risk of the back-up getting the call, which is why betting goalies is the lone holdout on the OU Council who is taking the over. The rest have been crushing under 6 goals the last 30 days with these teams, but a lot of that was with Ingram and Lindgren, and we may get neither in this one.

The models all like Washington, but both Betting Venues and Tails are not doing well the last 30 days on those picks with these teams. Tails going max on Caps ML with a -$714 record the last 30 days (mostly from betting visitors in Mullett Arena). I’m going to play it safe with Washington +1.5 goals at -230 because that should be -300.

STL @ VEG:

Adin Hill is day-to-day with an injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be back. I’ll assume this is Logan Thompson until proven otherwise (.905 SV% in the last 30 days compared to Hill’s .944). This will almost certainly be Binnington in goal, who has posted 3 consecutive quality starts after it was starting to look like he was beginning to unravel (Binnington is as Binnington does), so I’ll assume those 3 bad starts were a false alarm. I’ll take a swing with a minimum bet on Blues ML +190. Vegas has only won 4 of their last 10 and has been vulnerable. I’m also taking the under because I’m up $77 betting under 6 goals with these teams in the last 30 days (vs losing on overs). Betting Goalies is only taking the over because it’s projecting 6.03 goals to be scored. That’s not strong conviction.