The opening day of NHL free agency is fast approaching, a day so important in Canada they made it a national holiday so people can be home to watch Sportscenter. Otherwise sick days taken would damage the national economy. It’s one of my favorite days of the year, better than Christmas, but comparable to December 25 in so many ways (except the gifts keep coming all day and throughout the summer). This is now the 3rd iteration of my 2024 list. The first came a year ago, but I significantly underestimated those signing extensions one year out. If you sign it earlier, it’s more likely to be higher; while there’s a lot of minimum contracts and PTOs in September. My updated predictions came in January using stats from the last 365 days, and those did a better job accounting for a higher cap, also compensating for first half stats (with 2nd half last season).
Below is a chart with my predictions from half-time that have signed since (I’m missing a few of the most recent) and I’m currently running at a .917 R2. That would be more impressive if the algorithm that advises me were not running at .934. Granted, that’s not the algorithm number used in December based on halftime stats, that’s the final season number. The algorithm may have had better data, not a clairvoyance advantage over my own picks. As mentioned in my 2025 Preliminary Predictions my “forecasts” are all judgement-based picks typed into a cell. That’s how I’ve always done it. The algorithm plays an important role in my analytics, but I like to believe my intuition is superior. On average it’s not, but hey, I built the damned thing, so there’s no reason for an inferiority complex…
The goal for anyone attempting to predict contracts is for that line above to be x=y, but as you can see, both my algorithm and I have under-predicted actual. That should balance out after all the late signings come at the end of the summer at discounted prices. My biggest misses thus far have all been underestimates: Alex Vlasic (who I was forecasting for a bridge, not long-term, that’s why I show term with the cap prediction (more term tends to mean higher salary for young players)), Nick Foligno, Jason Dickenson (all Blackhawks), and Al Protas (same excuse as Vlasic). Chicago was also responsible for several of my biggest whiffs last summer. I fell more than a million short on Mrazek’s extension, but again, guys signing earlier tend to get more. I should probably price that into my December predictions and remove it from my June final predictions.
The thought did occur to me that if my December list has been accurate, why change it at all? You’ll notice some are exactly the same and few are drastically different, unless the player had a drastically different second half. But since this is my 3rd such prediction list, I’m going to mix things up and present them differently; one sorted by team, one with everyone together. Sorry if some of the statuses are off, I’m doing this prior to qualifying offers getting extended. I’m comfortable saying Reinhart gets the biggest deal of those remaining, unless there’s that state-tax discount. He could potentially hit a very big number if he goes to July 1 and accepts the highest bid. There are no pending free agents on Edmonton who currently stands to receive a big boost based on playoff performance (maybe Broberg if he gets enough ice time to make an impact).
Winning the Cup would theoretically boost Reinhart’s value, but players who just won the Cup don’t leave in free agency nearly as much as you might think, given the lucrative opportunity that the open market might provide a fresh champ. Certainly there are a few big names who did cash that lottery ticket (Kadri being one), Pietrangelo in St. Louis another, but that wasn’t an outrageous price and the Blues could have matched if they managed their cap better. They basically let him walk and Vegas won a Cup. Others like Marian Gaborik and John Carlson signed deals to stay while the party was still rocking. The Gaborik deal turned out to be the Kings greatest contractual blunder of the salary cap era (Dubois might be challenging that unless he bounces back next season).
I’m still undecided on how much content will be coming out in the summer. We’ll see what the thought factory churns out. Up next is my finals preview, coming tomorrow, which will be much shorter than previous previews. There’s just a few points that needed making. If you are among the 8% of my subscribers who hit subscribe after reading a contracts post and are not interesting in betting or fantasy, you can edit what you receive notification for. I’m taking a risk sharing this, but hit the unsubscribe button in the emails and it takes you to a page where you can edit your preferences. My first NHL Draft post should be coming in the next 7 days.