2024 NHL Free Agent Midseason Contract Predictions
Predicting the eventual contracts signed by more than 500 pending NHL free agents.
What will the final contracts be for the 2024 NHL free agency class? If you’re seeking answers to that question, then you’ve come to the right place. I posted a preliminary list back in June, which was my first ever attempt to predict a free agency class a full year out (which will obviously have a bigger margin of error). Typically, my first preliminary list is at the end of December, using data from first half of this season and second half of the previous. For 2023 I decided to get on the record early so the early signers don’t elude my prophecy.
Probably the biggest problem with my preliminary list back in June was that we had no idea where the salary cap would be set, but it was believed to be a significant spike. Unfortunately, I didn’t want to guess a number not knowing what it would be, so did not price any cap increase, which felt like a mistake once contracts started getting signed and many came in above expected. Gary has since announced that the expected increase is to around $87M, so I’ll be adjusting my own numbers to account for that increase. If you are interested in NHL contracts, click on the “NHL Contracts” tab at the top of the page and you’ll be treated to all my best and worst contract lists. I’m midway through posting updated versions for each team on my new Substack site, but they’re all coming.
The biggest prize that was potentially available this summer has been taken off the board, as Auston Matthews will become the highest paid player in the league in July, passing Nathan MacKinnon who only had 1 year at the top of the NHL pay-scale. There have been a few big contracts signed by players in their mid to late twenties in the last year that have already been breaking bad. Jonathan Huberdeau is the worst, but even Pierre-Luc Dubois and Timo Meier have had disastrous starts to their new deals. That 25 to 29 demographic is fraught with peril. The risk of sudden catastrophic decline grows uncomfortably large with each passing year.
Some GMs are under such enormous pressure to win now that they’re often willing to assume risk later in deals if it means they can get a few good years at the beginning. Kevin Cheveldayoff may have even told the Jets owners that the Scheifele/Hellebuyck contracts aren’t likely to end well, but if ownership wanted to sell tickets now, they could have endorsed the expense knowing it would be toxic eventually. That’s what it means running a business. Maybe tearing down and rebuilding the way we all expected would have collapsed their business model? The Vancouver Canucks are a team that received substantial criticism from the fan base for not tearing it down and doing a proper rebuild, but now suddenly they’re really good (same with Winnipeg).
As you can discern from reading all my best and worst contract lists, I’ve spent as much time as anyone breaking down good and bad contracts. The crucial first step in deciding whether or not any contract is “good” or “bad” is figuring out what is the appropriate level of compensation. That’s something that’s constantly evolving. I use a complex “expected free agent value” algorithm that has been updated/improved numerous times over the years. Each summer I’ll create a scatterplot to make sure 50% of the newest contracts signed in the past 12 months are above my expected value, and 50% are below. My regression line is constantly moving with the market. I’m not simply riding version 1.0 into the sunset. The market continuously evolves, and I need to evolve with it.
My list last year had a higher error rate than my 2022 list, which I’m really hoping doesn’t mean that I’m getting worse at forecasting salaries. One thing that hurt me was looking up how much each restricted free agent was owed on their qualifying offer. It turned out several RFAs signed deals below their QO, and some of those became unrestricted free agents who still haven’t signed. But there were more who were due $830K according to the CBA, but were only worth the minimum. Many signed with their previous teams for less than they should have been owed. They were probably told they would not receive the required offer and they could sign for less if they wanted to stay. Whatever goes on behind the scenes, looking up QOs hurt my accuracy last year, so I’m not doing it this time.
One final programming note, in past seasons I went to Cap Friendly to check whether all the hundreds of free agents were pending UFA or RFA. This year, I’m just using age July 1st (which is right most of the time). There will be players who won’t play enough games to stay restricted, and those who don’t receive qualifying offers and become unrestricted. If you like these predictions, you may also like my 24 Sports Predictions for 2024, which is another annual tradition of mine for the last decade plus.
UFA Forwards
*Note* Nino Niederreiter was not supposed to be included below because he had already signed for the amount below. I did NOT unknowingly predict the exact value. My prediction for him back in June was a little over $2M.