Welcome to my preliminary 2025 NHL free agency predictions. The farther ahead you try to predict the future, the more likely you are to be wrong. Last June my first 2024 preliminary predictions were made, but lacked proper adjustments for salary cap increases, under-predicting several deals. This was addressed in my mid-season predictions, which have been far more accurate. Perhaps my 1-year out predictions need to all get a boost because they’re all players under contract for the upcoming season. There is no urgency for the team to sign them by October, so these tend to be the cream of the crop, teams forecasting an increase their market value in the season ahead. There have been plenty of examples where that move was brilliant, and plenty where it completely backfired. Depends on the player.
The NHL is projecting the NHL salary cap will hit $92M by 2025/26. That exact forecast was used to adjust my expected free agent value algorithm accordingly, however it’s very important to note that the predictions you will read below are not what my algorithm produced. I’ve been doing this annually for a few years, and while plenty of inputs inform each prediction, every single one of these was me typing a number into a cell, both term and salary. My advisors give me numbers by which to base my estimate, but these are all judgement calls. Granted, they aren’t done in a vacuum, rather everyone from a position/age group is completed concurrently, so they can be weighed against each other.
For example, all players are sorted by my algorithm’s appraisal of their stat line and every free agent (such as centers under 25 years old) is on the screen. Joining the current free agents are every previous free agents dating back to 2021 and the contracts they signed. The elder FAs are also sorted by the appraisal of their stat line prior to signing their deal. Ergo, I’m actually looking at all the possible comparables while doing each age/position simultaneously. Once all the worksheets were built with all the data, actually making the predictions went very quickly. Of all my past methods, this was easily the best, evidenced by the accuracy of my 2024 midterm list from December (I’ll actually quantify that in my final 2024 predictions coming later this week).
Some of my best and worst contract lists already require updates, as these are moving targets. Every so often good investments turn sour, while bad deals reverse course. Good to bad is a far more common transition, but I’ve been doing this long enough to recognize the importance of an open mind. That’s partially the product of having to issue several public apologies to players on a worst contract list that won the Stanley Cup or eventually proved their worth. I’m familiar with the taste of eating crow. It tastes like shit, but a dish best served cold. These updates will be coming throughout the offseason. Edmonton saved me some time by eliminating Dallas. Benn and Seguin can stay, but Mason Marchment already earned removal and an apology from his strong season.
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