Week 11 NHL Betting Preview

Week eleven of the NHL season is nearly upon us and my gaze is already focused on what worked best this time of year in the previous 2 seasons. Or at least, that’s my standard opening line to set the mood for my weekly previews, but whatever is happening in the NHL right now is different from previous campaigns. Tailing History, which makes bets based on the historical data shared in my previews had its 3rd consecutive awful week. Ergo, I’m not going to be encouraging anyone to bet based on what happened in Dec 2022 when Tankapalooza was full bloom or Dec 2021 when Omicron and Covid protocols wreaked havoc.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.

If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon store. My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

Tailing History is going to continue in its recently updated form to see if history begins repeating once more, but may soon get dropped from my pick graphics (scroll down to see my picks for Monday). The big news coming in my betting report tomorrow is the continuing decline of favorites -1.5 goals, and that famine continued to ravage some of my betting models. On one hand, it hurt my self-esteem when they were crushing those pucklines and beating me, but now that the tables have turned, that internal esteem has not climbed. I want my models to be good again, so I’ll just keep building new ones until new winners emerge.

That leads me into the next point. There are three new models that require an introduction. The first one does exactly what you might think given its name, “Goalies vs Teams” it simply adds up the betting results of either possible starter against this opponent since October 2019, both home and road (including current season), betting the most profitable outcome, scaling its bets based on total profit. Easy peasy. The other goalie-based model is “Goalies Last 30 Days” and you can also guess exactly what that one does, also using my starter probability estimates. GL30 does make over/under picks, which should be very similar to “Betting Goalies”, but might replace that one if it proves better.

The last new model “Expected Goals Last 30 Days” is more complicated, at least in how it is selecting bet sizes. This requires me to copy/paste expected goal numbers for every game from Natural Stat Trick (my historical database of games already had xGs), calculating average xGF and xGA for each team in the last 30 days. I’ve tried a few expected goal models that all failed miserably, but most of those used full season average. This is the first time I’ll be uploading new xG data daily to have an active model (instead of just running numbers in the summer). The first two new models won’t have their picks shared until they prove worthy, but xGL30 had a good week one and will be in the starting line-up.

The formula is pretty straight forward. You take expected goals for and against for each team in the last 30 days. Add one team’s xGF to the other’s xGA (then divide by 2), subtract their xGA + opponent’s xGF (divide by 2). From 0 to 0.5 it bets puckline +1.5 goals, from 0.5 to 1.5 it bets moneyline, greater than 1.5 it bets puckline -1.5 goals. Bet size scaled to the input number (example: +0.01 equals a minimum bet). In this form it performed well week 1, but bet only a single game -1.5 goals. It was excellent with over/under, moneylines, and underdogs +1.5 goals, posting a loss on favorites +1.5 goals. It might be too conservative, do some tweaking might be done if it’s not maximizing returns.

The information feeding the Tailing History model has changed, which means so has the information being presented in my weekly previews. The table above has line range data for +/- 7 days since 2020/21 (5 weeks total including the previous 7 days). 20% of what you see up there is from this season. It should probably be noted for all the slander against Tails earlier in this post, he’s still doing well on over/under and is beating me for the full season in that category. As you can see from the data above, Tails will once again be betting over 6 and under 6.5 every opportunity (that’s been the most common combo on the season).

If you are new here and don’t know how the models work, you may want to click this link before proceeding. There are a couple models not explained there (updating is on my to do list) but they’re laid out here and my preview last week. I’ll be sending out at least one picks email exclusively to my free subscribers sometime this week, so subscribe for free if you’d like more game breakdowns like the one below.

MIN @ PIT:

The Minnesota Wild have won 7 of their last 10 while the Penguins have won 4 of 10, losing their last game in embarrassing fashion to the Toronto Maple Leafs (without Matthews). Good teams tend to bounce back strong from embarrassment, if we’re sure the Pens are good. We do know Minnesota is a much better team at home, and I’m expecting this to be Fleury (.904 SV% last 30 days) instead of Gustavsson (.941). Jarry got yanked in the last game, so it could be either Penguins goalie tomorrow. I’m not comfortable with either moneyline here as there are downsides to both, so I’m going to default to the dog +1.5 at -218, as has been my general strategy lately.

I’ll follow the majority opinion and take under 6 goals, but it does concern me that the Expected Goals model is expecting 6.4 goals. Also, my Goalies Last 30 Days model (who was born this morning and picks aren’t yet being shared) is taking the over.

ANA @ DET:

The Red Wings have exceeded my expectations without Larkin, which is a testament to their excellent organizational center depth. J.T Compher has returned to the line-up, but the biggest news is that Alex Lyon has suffered an injury and was unable to finish the last game. No word yet how long that will last, but the other two options have been much worse (Husso has played strong in his last 2 games). The problem here is that Anaheim is going to be playing a back-to-back with Gibson likely tonight and Dostal Monday (.850 SV% in the last 30 days). On the other hand, -230 is much more expensive than I’m willing to pay for a Red Wings moneyline, and I can’t bet Dostal to win outright. So, you guessed it, give me Ducks +1.5 goals at -130. Most of my models like Detroit, but they’re not price sensitive shoppers. Interesting that Megatron likes Ducks +1.5 goals when none of the models like that pick. Why? They’re almost all running a decent profit in the last 30 days betting V+1.5 for Anaheim road games and Detroit home games. That’s how Megatron rolls.

There is 7-2 support for under 6.5 goals, and that would be my pick if Lyon vs Gibson were the likely match-up. Instead, I’ll follow Prime and Betting Goalies, who are both having a good week (B.G is leading all my over/under algorithms) and take the over.

MTL @ WPG:

Me expecting a Jets collapse in the absence of Kyle Connor was a costly mistake this week, especially their wins against LA and Colorado. I’m assigning a 60% probability this is Laurent Brossoit tomorrow, but even he has a .933 SV% in the last 30 days (Hellebuyck is .943) so that’s not necessarily a reason to short the Jets. I’m also putting a 60% chance this is Cayden Primeau, but even he has a .918 SV% in the last 30 days (hint, my 3 different goalie-based models are all making different picks). The Jets are tempting here, but the -230 ML is unappealing (the full season Fair Line Estimator thinks that should be -130 because Habs are a surprisingly decent road team). Sorry, but I’m going to take underdog +1.5 goals at -130. These aren’t sexy picks, it’s just been working for me. Most of the OUC likes under 6 goals, so that will be my pick as well.

SEA @ DAL:

Philipp Grubauer has been placed on IR, which may even help Seattle given that he has an .874 SV% in the last 30 days. Daccord has been playing well (.919 SV% L30), but there’s a 50-50 chance this is Chris Driedger (who hasn’t started an NHL game since 2021/22, when he played 27 with an .899 SV%). On the other side, Jake Oettinger suffered an injury Friday and there’s no word yet how long he’ll be out. That being said, Jake is sporting a shockingly bad .870 SV% last 30 days, with Wedgewood at .892. Nearly all my models are taking Dallas in this one, but seeing Expected Goals L30 giving the slight edge to Seattle was enough to twist my rubber arm and pick Seattle +1.5 goals. For the over/under, I’m defying my primary algorithm and siding with the 5-4 majority vote on over 6.5 goals. The OUC is performing better on over 6.5 than under with these teams last 30 days. Note the “sum all” for Megatron does count some numbers you’re not seeing in the graphic. The “return” you see is only over or only under. Megatron sees their return on both.

FLA @ CGY:

Jacob Markstrom is back from IR and is the more likely starter for Calgary, though his SV% last 5 games was .874, so he’s got a little work to do before gaining my confidence. I’m semi-boarded on the Florida bandwagon, but losing 8-0 in Seattle + Vancouver did weaken my conviction. Then they beat the Oilers convincingly. Finally, I’m betting a favorite and taking the Panthers ML at -130. The Flames are 2-6 in their last 8 games while Florida is 5-3. Both Florida goalies have been stellar, so I’m not worried about Stolarz. My Shorting Travel model is jumping in here with Calgary, given that Florida is at the tail end of a long road trip, but it should be noted this model has gone 0-7 on its picks this week, thanks almost entirely to missed pucklines -1.5 goals. Speaking of which, Megatron recently hit large bets on Vancouver -1.5 goals to beat Florida and Calgary -1.5 goals to beat Tampa. That’s why he’s enthusiastic about that Flames puckline. We’ll see, that’s not enough to knock me off my Florida pick. Everyone loves under 6.5 (even the goalie model expecting Markstrom), and that will be my pick as well.