First Quarter NHL Betting Report

Breaking down the first quarter of the 2023/24 NHL season.

The first quarter of the 2023/24 season is in the history books, wrapping shortly after American Thanksgiving. Unlike my weekly reports, the quarterly report will delve deeper into my team-by-team results, providing more of a big picture look at the categories. My own betting performance was disappointing, but I’m very excited about the direction my tracking is heading. The original plan was to post this a few days ago, but delays were necessary because of some exciting new features I’m adding to my spreadsheet. I just plugged my Game Summary worksheet where all my decisions are made directly into my historical database, including goalie game logs dating back to October 2019.

What makes this quarter much different from all the others that came before it, at least from my perspective, was the creation of several different betting models, spawning an active competition between me and my creations. If you’re not already familiar with my models, I published a blog post detailing how each makes their picks (to read, click here). Each model has a unique voice that communicates something specific about each game. How do these teams perform when facing off in this venue? Is this a good bet historically based on the line? Which bet involving these teams made the most money in the last 30 days? Has distance travelled created an opportunity for profit? How good are these goalies this time of year since October 2019?

Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.

If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon store. My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

I’m sad to report losing the battle of me vs myself in the first quarter, and it was not particularly close. Below is the chronological chart of me vs my models in Q1, and as you can see, my Betting Venues model unleashed a crushing defeat. It was not born on day 1 of the season, but its picks could be retroactively applied to games that already happened because it doesn’t care about any data from the current season. At least version 1.0 didn’t. It was updated yesterday to include the current schedule as well. Not all the models have that feature, especially the new Betting Goalies over/under algorithm that needs me to estimate probability for each possible starter.

The secret to Betting Venues success was riding pucklines -1.5 goals, especially underdogs. It made several large bets on underdog alt pucklines -1.5 goals and that category in general was much better than past seasons. That success however does not appear to have been sustainable, as Betting Venues started struggling early in Q2 (you can see in the chart it flattened out for the final few days of Q1). Why? Those pucklines stopped cashing. During this period, I also noticed myself losing an uncomfortably large number of big bets on favorites -1.5 goals. San Jose was my last safe haven, but eventually those stopped hitting.

Unfortunately, I don’t really have the time here to write a detailed analysis how each model fared (this report is already behind schedule). In the team sections you can see how each model performed with each team, where it becomes very clear which team’s pucklines were winning money. In past seasons my quarterly reports were in the neighborhood of 15,000 words, but I’m trying to keep this one under 10,000 (the team sections are over 8,000). There are plenty of stat graphics below for you to browse in lieu of written analysis, and many speak for themselves.

Over/Under

Traditionally over/under has been a big net benefit for my betting experiment ever since it was added back in October 2021. I pride myself on being proficient prognosticating totals. Unders started the current schedule strong, leading me to a nice profit in weeks 2 and 3. The scoring surge in week 4 threw a curveball at my primary algorithm (aka: OU Prime) who doesn’t react very quickly when the wind changes direction, but that’s to avoid overreactions to unsustainable gusts. Funky variance is difficult to overcome, hence why Columbus went from one of my best OU teams to one of my worst.

There were a few ways in which the first quarter of the current season differed from what we’ve seen historically. The first that jumps out is the increased profitability of overs, as there was a scoring surge that we don’t normally see in weeks 4, 5, and 6. Last year there was a surge in week four, but came crashing back down the next week. This one sustained for at least 3 weeks. Hard for me to predict where this goes if it’s a newly emerging phenomenon, but I’m fortunate to have a team of algorithms helping guide me. Unders did get hot as the second quarter was underway, right around the same time that favorites -1.5 was free falling.

I’m currently commissioning a team of algorithms to help guide me through over/under, but there’s not a lot of big picture analysis for me to provide at this time because several were only recently born. I’ll need a little more time to get a feel for all their recommendations before I’m ready to make meaningful conclusions. With all the new historical goalie data feeding my Game Summary worksheet, there’s several potential models I could build with this. One thing I’m planning for the second half is a “Tournament of Models”. I’m getting new model/algorithm ideas on a daily basis. All this creative volatility makes it harder to write a big picture commentary for a quarterly report.

Goalies

Note that Hunter Shepard only started 2 games and won both as a significant underdog. So don’t look at the above results and feel like you need to be targeting Hunter Shepard starts. Elvis Merzlikins was my worst goalie of the quarter, but my performance did improve in week one of Q2. Elvis has improved significantly from last season’s debacle, and joined one of my fantasy teams this week (he just went on IR with an “illness”). Ironically enough, I dropped John Gibson to add Elvis. Johnny was my best goalie to bet in Q1, both betting him to win and lose (most of the money won on his losses came in 2 games vs Boston and Vegas).

My 3rd Quarter Results:

Results by line ranges

Team-by-Team Profitability Rankings

The team-by-team gambling Profitability Rankings (formerly known as Power Rankings) are ordered by the sum of all my bets on each team to win or lose, over or under for the entire season. They are my own personal power rankings, reflecting my own success picking the outcome of their games. These aren’t necessarily the best teams to bet on, as some were swung by a few instances of good luck or bad judgement. You’ll have to read the team summaries for a deeper understanding of the replicability.

1) San Jose Sharks, ($3,087):

Nothing brings me more satisfaction betting on NHL games than having a reliably terrible team that won’t let you down when you need to cash a puckline. Two of my greatest successes from the first 4 years of my betting experiment were the 2019/20 Detroit Red Wings and the 2021/22 Arizona Coyotes. The 2023/24 San Jose Sharks are at least that bad, possibly worse. That’s why the Sharks rank #1 in my profitability rankings at the end of the first quarter. There were a few bumps along the way that knocked some other pundits off the scent, but my eye stayed on the prize. It makes sense my historical precedence models struggled with San Jose. They’re much worse than before.

As the second quarter began, the did begin to improve and hitting +1.5 goals in 7 of 8 games. Their opponent lines against really good teams are absurdly expensive. We saw Vegas open as -500 ML favorites and close at -550. They did pull off a stretch with 3 wins in 6 games, then they started attracting public money. My foot stayed on the gas pedal. Yeah, I lost $500 PL bets on all 3 of those wins, but was still up $3,000 on Shark opponent pucklines for the season. Those two games where they gave up 10+ goals were more of an anomaly. I’ve already hit the brakes going all in on their opponents -1.5 goals, boarding their +1.5 bandwagon.

2) Los Angeles Kings, ($2,201):

The Los Angeles Kings are a team that has given me issues in past seasons including some spectacular failures that had me believing in the butterfly effect. It genuinely felt like my picks had the ability to affect the outcome of their games, so it’s nice to see them high in my early rankings. What helped me early was Pheonix Copley being predictably bad, but otherwise the team is really good. Cam Talbot found his way onto both my fantasy teams and had an excellent Q1. Early in Q2 my I’m making large bets on Kings ML nearly every game. All my betting models also generated profit from LA, because they all ran a big profit betting Kings -1.5 goals, myself included.

My biggest concern for the long-term sustainability of this success is how much of a load Talbot carried in Q1. If Copley can settle down and give them a viable alternative (which appears to have happened), that should help Talbot stay fresh. The team has a solid blueline and arguably the best center depth in the NHL. Copley’s early season struggles boosted my output betting King’s losses and it took me a couple week to warm up to the Talbot, as he’s older and sometimes goalies can struggle adapting to new teams. Once Talbot emerged as dominant (joining my fantasy teams), that’s when I fully jumped on the Kings bandwagon, and it paid off. Copley did end the quarter giving up 1 goal against in his last 2 starts.

3) Minnesota Wild, ($1,415):

It makes sense that the Minnesota Wild are high in my early season rankings because their defining Q1 feature was an inability to stop goals, which also happened last season before Gustavsson caught fire and their unders prevailed. It is mostly the strength overs and betting Wild opponents that has propelled them into this position. They’re not very good, as tends to happen when the goaltending is porous. They did turn that around this time last year, so I’m not married to my short position, especially now that Jared Spurgeon is back on the blueline (granted they went 0-4 his first 4 games back). The coach was fired right as the quarter was closing, so we’ll see if they get a new coach bump (spoiler alert, that seems to be happening).

Both goalies were equally terrible in the first quarter, which could just be a product of the players playing in front of them. To make matters worse, Kirill Kaprizov has been less dominant, which is making it hard to overcome the deficiency in goal prevention. They’ll have to go on a prolonged run of success before I’ll be able to trust them, but in the meantime betting Minnesota to lose is still paying dividends and they haven’t shown anything to deter that strategy (that sentence was written before the new coach bump, so my short position has been abandoned). Their unders went 5-2 to end the quarter as Gustavsson began improving, which might signal a turn-around is imminent. None of my models pulled a profit betting them to win, but Tailing History did very well betting them to lose.

4) Colorado Avalanche, ($1,368):

My belief in the superiority of the Colorado Avalanche did more harm to my betting portfolio than good, at least early in the schedule. Injuries were a big issue for basically the entire regular season last year, but they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs, providing extra time to heal their wounds with a chip on their shoulder. This heightened my expectations, and watching a few of their games only reinforced my belief. When MacKinnon, Makar, and Rantanen are on the ice together 5v5, it looks like Colorado has a power play. The best over/under strategy with this team is over 6 goals and under 6.5.

They received strong goaltending from Alexandar Georgiev in October, but then their main guy suddenly collapsed in November and they lacked a credible alternative. Ivan Prosvetov wasn’t terrible, but also isn’t someone you want to be your #1 in the playoffs. As the quarter closed, they were without Lehkonen, Landeskog, O’Connor, and Girard; yet still managed to win 6 of their last 7 Q1 games with me along for most of that ride. Betting Venues crushed their pucklines -1.5 goals, but lost money when betting their opponents. I’m considering some “safety protocols” for my models; one that’s needed is Tailing History, limit your bet size on Avs opponents -1.5 goals.

5) Vancouver Canucks, ($1,193):

Me and the Vancouver Canucks got off to a bad start this season, after regrettably betting Edmonton in the first 2 games (costing me -$950). However, their convincing victories opened my eyes, luring me onto the bandwagon. The Canucks were my pick in 11 of their next 13 games. One of the key factors was Thatcher Demko, who regrettably found his way onto my fantasy hockey bust list because there was too much risk relative to where he was being taken. It was noted that he was a much better goalie in the 2nd half under Tocchet and that’s who showed up in October. Most of my models handled Vancouver well, as the team was very obedient to historical precedence.

The torrid start slowed towards the end of the quarter, but this team will absolutely challenge for a playoff spot. Quinn Hughes is emerging as one of the most dominant play drivers in the NHL and they have some elite finishers at forward. Unless Demko completely falls apart, I’ll never feel comfortable betting large amounts on their opponents, but small bets here and there are plausible. The public has taken notice and their line prices have been getting more expensive which could create some value on their opponents if their diminishing momentum is the new normal. Though even if they continue declining, the talent on this roster will always make them risky to bet against.

6) Anaheim Mighty Ducks, ($1,118):

My ticket aboard the Anaheim Ducks bandwagon was purchased after watching them play the Boston Bruins where they had a 1-0 lead in the 3rd period before losing 3-1. Then I watched the same teams play a few nights later in Boston, and the Ducks won outright. It was starting to look like the quack attack might indeed be back Jack. Mason McTavish is evolving, Pavel Mintyukov is a potential Calder candidate, and Leo Carlsson is already very good. The team is getting good goaltending, they have dangerous forwards, a better back-end, there’s a lot to like here (that was written before they went 1-9 in late November early December). My Betting Venues model was the only one who pulled a profit from Ducks games while Tailing History got annihilated betting them to win.

That being said, the early momentum was dissipating by the end of the quarter. John Gibson continued playing well in goal, but the back-up Lukas Dostal began struggling. I’m not confident that this will be a playoff team, but they’re better than before. They were one of my better over/under teams, mostly due to unders. Gibson has a lot to do with those unders popping, and he has a history of falling apart later in the season. But at least wait until that starts happening before you start aggressively betting their opponents, especially -1.5 goals. My old nickname for Gibson was “The Puckline Bandit”. Gibson finished Q1 as my most profitable goalie across all categories, while Dostal was among my worse.

7) Winnipeg Jets, ($774):

My expectations for the Winnipeg Jets were low entering the season, expecting that eventually they would trade Scheifele and Hellebuyck, leading to tanking-rebuilding. Both were signed to long-term contracts which are unlikely to age well, but does improve their outlook in the current schedule. It took a couple weeks for me to warm up to Winnipeg because their line prices seemed unusually expensive right out of the gate. I often found myself betting their opponents because the line was too pricey, but they proved capable of winning hockey games and jumping on their bandwagon was profitable.

There was a big disparity between the goalies, but I mostly did a good job of figuring out when the back-up would get called, betting Hellebuyck to win and Brossoit to lose. Betting Venues would have liked if that advice was shared, running a big profit when Helley started, and losing a large sum from Brossoit. I did a much better job betting Winnipeg wins and losses than any of my models. Basically, every model did well picking Jets to win and lost betting them to lose. Over/unders were a different story, with the bulk of my losses coming on Hellebuyck overs. His unders went 8-6 while Brossoit overs went 4-1. This is where my “Betting Goalies” over/under algorithm can help, once I actually get around to building it (spoiler alert, it’s finished).

8) New York Islanders, ($766):

The New York Islanders are old, boring and trending in the wrong direction with a roster locked into several long-term contracts with players in their late 20s or early 30s. The window to win should be right now, without many bright prospects coming in the pipeline. Yet this is a middling roster with a sometimes outstanding goaltender. Sorokin finished the quarter with a .917 SV%, while his back-up Semyon Varlamov had 2 shutouts and a .930 SV% in 7 games. I actually lost a shade under -$500 betting Sorokin to win, and profited a shade over $500 betting him to lose. That’s not how that’s supposed to work out.

All my models struggled with this team, with Betting Venues laying way too much on Isles -1.5 goals. If those were cashing in past season, they certainly aren’t in the current schedule. Whereas Game Sum lost a pile betting their opponents -1.5 goals (hint: their opponents were strong +1.5 goals) so if I were to introduce team-specific safety protocols for my models, those would be two contenders. The other trick with this team is they are frisky on the road and bad at home. We shall see if that continues, but strong goaltending is one way to deliver profits on the road.

9) Ottawa Senators, ($750):

The Ottawa Senators are a young team on the rise, one that I’ve always cheered for and enjoy seeing their future brighten. This year however, seems to be cursed, with a stupid Shane Pinto suspension, injuries, then losing a draft pick for managerial incompetence and firing the manager. Despite struggles to start the season, it’s a team with talented players who play hard and never take a night off. There are valid reasons to be nervous whether you are betting them to win or lose, and that can be challenging parameters to navigate as a bettor. Despite that volatility, I managed to run a nice profit both when betting them to win and lose.

Korpisalo struggled early but eventually settled down, finishing the quarter with a .906 SV%. Both goalies consistently delivered overs, but my problem was betting under 6.5 and 7 when the team was over 6.5 goals 12 times in 16 games. Anton Forsberg was good last season but a trainwreck in the first quarter, posting an .850 SV%. He has been good for stretches in the past, and it’s plausible he’ll find his form having missed a chunk of last season due to injury (spoiler alert, he has improved in Q2). All the models did well betting Ottawa to win and lose, with Game Sum finishing in first place thanks to a stunning performance betting them to win -1.5 goals (all the profit coming from their victories against Toronto and Calgary).

10) Vegas Golden Knights, ($701):

Last season I was too slow reacting to the Vegas ascension, and one of the reasons was betting against all their injuries in goal and not believing Laurent Brossoit and Adin Hill were capable of carrying a team to glory. As a result, they finished very low in my profitability ranks last season, but winning the Stanley Cup is a big eye-opener. I came into this season expecting excellence and they did not disappoint. Well at least unit week six, that’s when cracks in the armour started to show and they were my #1 worst team of the week. This was one of the best teams for Betting Venues, suggesting Vegas follows past patterns, except that they were one of the worst teams for Tailing History.

If you bet them to win every game or lose every game, you lost money (unless you bet them every single moneyline equal amounts). They mostly alternated goalies in Q1, with both posting save percentages above .920. Adin Hill sees a little more action and was a little better (as he should looking at their paygrades), also playing the role of #1 goalie for one of my fantasy teams. All my Vegas profit came from the puckline -1.5 goals, while being a net loser on the moneyline. Their struggles in week 6 caught me with my pants down, but it was hard to say if that was just random puck luck, or if the dreaded Stanley Cup hangover was finally starting to show up. We’ll find out soon enough.

11) Washington Capitals, ($507):

The Washington Capitals are old and looked their age when the season began. It didn’t take long before I smelled blood in the water and started to feed. That was until November came and they started winning a few more games, which did not allude my attention. They at least have a healthy John Carlson this season, who has been a disappointment on one of my fantasy teams, but still makes them better in theory. Just note if you’re planning to bet their opponent, Washington is frisky. That slow start was just temporary, or so it appears for now. They do have an old team, so we’ll see where this goes. Betting Venues did very well betting Washington moneylines, while Tailing History might need a safety protocol limiting Caps bet sizes.

Darcy Kuemper entered the season as the undisputed #1 goalie, but it was Charlie Lindgren who had won the job by the end of the quarter. Lindgren was bad last season with his new team, but was a very effective back-up his last year in St. Louis. This was one of my best teams to bet last season, but mostly because I was picking their opponents. I’m not sure I trust this to last through to the playoffs considering those old legs aren’t getting any younger, but it’s been a nice ride betting them to win thus far. They had a winning record both at home and on the road. It doesn’t matter where they play. They’ve been a good road team in past seasons too. Ovie travels well.

12) Carolina Hurricanes, ($482):

I entered this season believing that the Carolina Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the NHL, especially after adding Dmitri Orlov and Tony DeAngelo to an already stacked blueline. But once the schedule began, they struggled mightily at goal prevention, leaking worse than levies in New Orleans. This led to a nice little run of overs, but I knew that would be temporary because they were a strong under team last season and would inevitably right the ship, which they did. Yet my confidence in their elite status diminished, which negatively affected my performance betting their games. Freddy Andersen emerged as their #1 goalie before sustaining an injury, with Raanta and Kochetkov splitting duties in his absence with mixed results.

Raanta finished the quarter with an .854 SV%, and I was a loser betting him to win and under; generating a nice profit when the other two goalies were in net (Kochetkov .881 Q1 SV%, Andersen .894). You would have done well just betting over 6 and under 6.5 every opportunity. Perhaps one of the best features with this team is their compliance to historical precedence with both Tailing History and Betting Venues crushing Carolina wagers. Neither lost money on any of their categories (B.V did struggle with their over/unders). Shorting Travel also did well betting Carolina to lose, almost entirely thanks to the Canes going 0-3 in the last 3 games of a 6-game road trip in October.

13) St. Louis Blues, ($477):

The window for the St. Louis Blues to be Stanley Cup contenders has long since closed. They do have a few quality young players who are going to help them win some games, but there are too many older players on expensive contracts for this team to make any post-season noise. They have a goalie who can play great and steal games, but is also a psychologically unstable ticking time bomb who at any moment could start to suck, then sustain that awfulness for several weeks. That’s the Binnington script at this stage, so you can’t trust this to be permanent. He was actually among my better goalies to bet, pulling profit from both his wins and losses, but the largest reason was unders.

Betting Venues did very well with this team, whether betting them to win or lose, but hitting the biggest bets on Blues to win by -1.5 goals. Whereas Tailing History struggled mightily on both sides and I’m currently lacking explanation as to why that would be. The goalies had a strong first quarter and that’s why they were sitting in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving, which allegedly guarantees they’ll qualify for the post-season. I’ll personally continue taking them seriously until they prove otherwise. Betting their unders was a profitable wager, but the sustainability of that bet depends entirely on the trajectory of Jordan Binnington, but the good news is that it generally doesn’t take long to figure out when he’s cooling off. It tends not to be a gradual decline.

14) Seattle Kraken, ($406):

The Seattle Kraken were awful in their first season, but made the playoffs in year two. My general impression entering the current schedule was this is a quality team that deserved respect in my betting picks. Unfortunately, early in the schedule, they were very unreliable. My belief that they were good led to monetary losses, costing me a considerable sum betting them to win. The only reason they aren’t lower in my Q1 profitability ranks is over/under (and running a small profit betting them to lose. My Betting Venues model did very well betting them to win on the ML, and lose -1.5 goals while Tailing History struggled specifically with their pucklines, whether betting Kraken or their opponents.

Arguably the biggest issue with this team was goaltending, with Joey Daccord emerging as the better option earlier in the schedule, but eventually his play slipped too, finishing the quarter with an .895 SV% (compared to Grubauer’s .885).  My results were very good betting Joey Daccord to both win and lose, but generated a loss betting his over/under. Whereas for Grubauer, I produced a substantial loss both when betting him to win and lose, but did very well on both his overs and unders. Whether or not that specific pattern continues, I’ll have to note that specific discrepancy when making second quarter bets with this team, maybe limit bet sizes on Grubauer’s wins and losses.

15) Tampa Bay Lightning, ($305):

The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of my best teams to bet historically, and that’s not just because they’re awesome. The playbook was bet them to lose on the road and win at home. They had earned my trust midway through Q1 when Jonas Johansson had 2 shutouts in a week, convincing me he was reliable. Sadly, it was a downward slope from there, and they soon began leaking goals painfully as Andrei Vasilevskiy neared return (he returned for their last Q1 game). Betting them to lose was more profitable than betting them to win, which Tailing History and Betting Venues absolutely crushed. This was one team where it paid to follow the models, but we’ll see if Vasy’s return spoils that compliance.

What I’ll do with this team going forward depends entirely on Vasilevskiy and how well he plays returning from back surgery. It’s entirely plausible he’s never going to be that Vezina level guy again, so I’ll need to see some sustained success before I’m willing to make large wagers on Bolts to win. The team in front of him is flawed, which was painfully clear in their games that I’ve watched. This is not the team that won 2 Stanley Cups, and it’s unlikely they’ll even approach that level again unless Vasilevskiy is unbeatable. All I know right now is Jonas Johansson is not trustworthy, though I did manage a decent profit both when betting him to win and lose.

16) New Jersey Devils, ($218):

Last season I was an early passenger aboard the New Jersey Devils bandwagon, thanks in part to Jack Hughes being on both my fantasy teams. His ascension and Nico Hischier’s Selke-level play (thanks to some draft lottery luck) gives them a mighty advantage at such a crucial position. I entered this season betting New Jersey to win in 5 of their first 7 games, at least until they lost Nico Hischier to injury, that injected some doubt. Once Hughes went down too, I could not bet this team to win (except vs Chicago on a back-to-back). It was more profitable betting New Jersey to lose without Hughes-Hischier than it was betting them to win with the pair.

Neither goalie was good (Schmid .892 Q1 SV%, Vanecek .884) and my results were very similar for both netminders. Minding who was starting in their net was irrelevant. I did well betting their overs, but lost all my wagers when the total was set to 7, which it was 21% of their Q1 games. Their overs went 13-4, which should only continue in Q2 unless the goaltending improves considerably. Tailing History lost a big pile of money betting Devils to win, but all the other models and myself made profit betting their wins and losses. This was among the best teams for the struggling Game Sum model, which did very well betting their pucklines.

17) Dallas Stars, ($94):

I’ll confess to having some difficulty getting a feel for Dallas early in the schedule after they advanced to the Conference finals and supposedly proved they are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Stud defenseman, one of the league’s best goalies, and a dangerous scoring line feels like a winning combination. The biggest issue slowing them down early in the schedule was the slow start of Jason Robertson (who scored 109 PTS in 2022/23), but eventually he started scoring and the team got hot. If you think Scott Wedgewood starting in goal is a good opportunity to bet the Dallas opponent, he actually had a better Q1 SV% than Oettinger (.916 to .911). The players in front of them probably take more risks with Jake in net.

My performance was good when betting their over/under, but not their wins and losses. Betting them to lose rarely worked, and they blew a few pucklines -1.5 goals costing me some wagers. Overall, this was a team that was better to bet moneyline than puckline, winning 78% of their road games and 50% of their home games. That kind of home-road split is typically problematic for me, but the moral of the story might be betting them to win more often on the road. Their overs went 10-9 and neither side was dominant, but over 6 and under 6.5 would have been an effective strategy. Given that my over/under algorithms are handling this team well, there’s no need to adjust my strategy.

18) New York Rangers, ($86):

The New York Rangers were one of my “butterfly effect” teams last season, where they were awesome when I bet them lose, and bad when I bet them to win. Maybe it was a case where they let me down with some losses to bad teams, which eroded my confidence but simultaneously lit a spark that motivated them to be better. If true, I’m sure it’s not the first time bad losses woke up a team but also put me to sleep. The same problem started to arise early in this schedule when they lost to Columbus, but their western Canada road trip opened my eyes to their quality. They won 79% of their first quarter games including an impressive 75% on the road (that’s much better than the previous 4 seasons, so B.V took a big loss on their road games).

Problem was, shortly after that fantastic road trip, Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin were lost to injury. Few teams have both past Norris and Vezina winners on their roster, but losing both to injury would surely have a negative impact, but nope, they continued winning without them, costing me a few wagers (thanks to the stunning resurrection of Jonathan Quick). I began writing in my game notes “I’m gonna love these guys when they get healthy”. I lost money on their wins and losses, but their over/under was predictable enough to overcome that deficit. All my betting models posted losses betting the Rangers (over/under not included), with Betting Venues at the bottom thanks to their road reversal.

19) Boston Bruins, ($68):

If you thought losing their top 2 centers was going to hurt the Boston Bruins, then you were wrong. Don’t feel too bad, I was wrong too. It wasn’t that I thought they’d be bad, but was convinced they would be less good. Turns out they are still one of the best teams and all us pessimists need to shut-up. Watching a pair of Boston games vs Anaheim in a less than a week (Ducks won one and almost won the other) did not help my appraisal of Boston’s quality, but the lesson there was Anaheim’s improvement, not Boston’s decline. The strength of this team is David Pastrnak being among the most dangerous scorers in the league and they have a very strong back-end (most notably a pair of Vezina quality goaltenders).

The previous paragraph was written roughly a week before the end of the quarter, as signs of weakness began emerging. That previously impenetrable back end began leaking goals and they started losing games and blowing pucklines to beatable teams. They were 2nd in my week three Profitability Rankings, and finished the quarter 19th, and that wasn’t from aggressively betting their opponents. My optimism for this team followed a downward trajectory throughout November, leaving me feeling very pessimistic by the end of the month. It does make me feel a little better that all the models struggled with them too, but all our struggles came from betting them to lose, which wasn’t a profitable wager until late November.

20) Florida Panthers, ($13):

The Florida Panthers stunned the hockey world when they fought back from a 3-1 series deficit to defeat the mighty Boston Bruins, then dispatching Toronto and Carolina before losing in the Stanley Cup finals. Part of that magic was Sergei Bobrovsky catching fire, but he has a history of struggling early in seasons. Adding to my pre-season pessimism was the team losing both Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour for the first quarter of the schedule (both are back now). My issue with this team wasn’t picking wins and losses it was their over/under that threw me a curveball. Part of the reason for that was they were better under 6 but over 6.5, which is a rare combination. There was substantial volatility betting goals totals.

Great as Bobrovsky was in the playoffs, Anthony Stolarz was actually a better goalie in the first quarter, winning 3 of 4 starts with a .917 SV% (compared to Bobrovsky’s .906). He was good in Anaheim last year, so this was entirely predictable. I was up $625 when Stolarz was the starter, and -$612 when it was Bob (my over/under results were similar for both goalies). Tailing History absolutely crushed this team, mostly from betting them to win and lose by -1.5 goals, but did produce a substantial loss when betting them to lose ML. Betting Venues really struggled with Florida, but would have produced a profit if it simply refrained from betting them to win or lose by -1.5 goals.

21) Nashville Predators, (-$297):

The Nashville Predators were dead last in my profitability rankings last season, and that wasn’t the first time I’ve struggled wagering on their outcomes. For a few minutes it seemed like they were tearing this roster down for a rebuild, but then they added several players in the offseason suggesting they still wanted to fight for a playoff spot. They do have an elite goalie, an elite defenseman, and a few quality forwards. It’s not that I’m expecting them to suck, but I’m also not confident they’re good. Juuse Saros did post a sub-.900 SV% in Q1, starting 16 of 20 games. Lankinen was good in his 4 starts, so maybe they should give him more and ease the load on Saros.

They won 5 consecutive games to end the quarter, and that was immediately after losing 6 of 7 games. So, they flipped the switch from ice cold to red hot which caused a few problems for me and Game Sum. The models who don’t care about the current season fared much better, with Shorting Travel crushing Predators bets. If they’ve been on the road too long, bet them to lose. If they haven’t been on the road too long and are playing a home team who just returned from a long road trip, bet them to win. Betting Venues did pull a decent profit with this team, but had mixed results depending on the category. Saros did start improving as the quarter closed and it’s worth noting, since October 2019, his Q1 SV% is .902 and his Q2 is .928. Note to self…

22) Pittsburgh Penguins, (-$315):

If we’re talking about expectations, count me among those feeling Pittsburgh’s acquisition of Erik Karlsson had the potential to electrify their roster. His arrival did not lead to immediate success, as the team actually struggled out of the gate. My first bet of the season was a max wager on Pittsburgh to beat Chicago by at least 2 goals and they lost outright. Let’s just say me and the Pens got off to a rough start, and it took a little time before they were able to regain my confidence. It was difficult for me to get a read on this team, as unusual volatility might be why my models also struggled. Yes, Betting Venues made a nice profit betting them to lose by -1.5 goals, but all that came in 2 games and it lost at everything else.

This was a good quarter for their goalies, with all 3 posting a SV% above .915. As a Red Wings fan, I came into this season expecting Alex Nedeljkovic to suck, but he found stability in his new home with a .937 Q1 SV% despite missing time due to injury. He was significantly better than Jarry’s .918 and should get a bigger share of the starts in the second quarter. Just be aware that he’s a better goalie than last season with Detroit. My Game Sum model struggled because 10 of their first 11 games were decided by 2+ goals, but that trend eventually lost steam and the profitable pattern that it was chasing vanished. I’m neither pessimistic or optimistic about this team heading into Q2. My feelings are mixed.

23) Arizona Coyotes, (-$317):

My history betting the Arizona Coyotes has some lofty peaks and some lowly valleys, but my best success came when they were predictably terrible. Last season when they started excelling at home games in their tiny arena, I enthusiastically jumped on the bandwagon and started picking them to win. Entering the current season, this was a team that generated positive vibes from my brain, but also one that I’m not completely ready to trust. The good news is that management is no longer actively tanking, but despite roster improvements, if you bet $100 ML for Yotes to win every game in Mullett Arena, you lost -$106. Word got out Yotes at home was a good bet, so the prices grew increasingly expensive.

I lost money betting Arizona to win and ran a profit betting them to lose. That might be the biggest lesson to carry into the second quarter, that this team is not quite as good as my instincts are telling me. That being said, quite a difference emerged between their goaltending tandem, which they mostly rotated back and forth. The previous #1 Karel Vejmelka ended the quarter struggling, posting an .892 SV%, while Connor Ingram won 8 of 10 starts posting a .919 SV%. All my negative profit betting Yotes to win was with Vejmelka in goal, posting a nice profit on Ingram to win. None of my models were especially good or bad with this team. Betting Venues did struggle, because this was a historically awful team in 2021/22. This is not the same team, so B.V might need some Yotes safety protocols.

24) Calgary Flames, (-$737):

The Calgary Flames disappointed their fans last season, leading to the General Manager getting fired and players requesting trades out of town. Yet Craig Conroy took control of the team and seemed to stop the bleeding, and there was at least a plausible chance that Jonathan Huberdeau was going to bounce back strong from a disastrous year one. If he could get rolling, this team would be frisky, but nope, he didn’t and they won just 38% of their Q1 games. That being said, they do have good players, sometimes good goaltending and they can give any opponent difficulty any given night. They aren’t reliably bad, but you need to be very careful how much you’re laying down on Flames to win.

Betting Venues and Tailing History both generated impressive profit on the Flames, as they were remarkably obedient to historical precedence. B.V made $1,200 betting them to win, despite Flames only winning 38%. It also generated over $4,000 betting their opponents -1.5 goals (which was a good bet overall). Note to self: follow the models when it comes to betting Calgary to win or lose because they’re doing a much better job at it than I am. My rate of return was nearly identical for both goalies. Markstrom finished the quarter with a .901 SV% in 14 starts (compared to Vladar’s .869 in 6 starts), yet Vladar actually won a higher % of games, and Markstrom was a better bet to lose despite being the better goalie.

25) Chicago Blackhawks, (-$774):

Words cannot express my disappointment in myself that the tanking Chicago Blackhawks finished near the bottom of my profitability rankings last season. Yes, I ran a large profit betting them to lose and was destroyed by their over/under, but exploiting badness is supposed to be one of my better skills as a bettor. But enter 2023/24 and this team wasn’t trying to land Connor Bedard because they already had him. They were frisky early in the schedule, delivering a few big upsets whenever Bedard or Mrazek had a big game, but that momentum slowly dissipated and they sank to the bottom. I was neither good or bad betting this team to win or lose in Q1, with most of my losses coming on over/under.

Erratic goaltending and sporadic scoring created some tough variance that messed up my algorithms. Mrazek was the better goalie early (.904 Q1 SV%), but was in decline by week 1 of Q2. Eventually there was not much difference between either guy, but Mrazek is one of those guys who has great games here and there, then sucks the rest of the time. I was a net loser betting both overs and unders for both goalies, so there was no goalie specific strategy that could have saved me. Betting Venues and Tailing History both hit several big bets and Chicago to both win and lose by -1.5 goals. Indeed, if you bet $100 on Chicago to win every game by -1.5 goals, you banked $300. If you bet them to lose every game by at least -1.5 goals, you banked $299.

26) Philadelphia Flyers, (-$1,018):

The Philadelphia Flyers entered the season as a “big short” candidate when it appeared in the summer that they were dumping assets preparing to tank and rebuild. Why else would anyone trade for Cal Petersen? There were Carter Hart trade rumours and the potential for a massive tear down. What I failed to account for was the return of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson, as it’s hard to get worse when you inject a former Selke winner into your line-up. Even if management was hoping for a last place finish, there’s no way John Tortorella is going to give any less than 100%. Well, they shipped Petersen to the AHL and had a winning Q1 record. Carter Hart was very reliable, and betting too much on him to lose was my biggest problem.

Samuel Ersson was much worse with an .881 Q1 SV% but started improving in late November. Betting too much on Ersson to win was another of my Flyer-specific issues this quarter. I ran a profit betting their over/under, mostly thanks to Carter Hart unders going 8-3. You did not want to bet overs with him in goal. Tailing History really struggled betting the Flyers to win and lose by -1.5 goals, but the team in general produced a considerable profit if you bet them to win by at least -1.5. Betting Venues did very picking the Flyers to win, but not to lose. I’m still not convinced this team is good, but they’re one of those teams who can beat anyone or lose to anyone any game, hard to trust either way.

27) Toronto Maple Leafs, (-$1,181):

The Toronto Maple Leafs near the bottom of my Profitability Rankings is not a new sight for my long-time followers. This can be a tricky team to bet because their large fan base can potentially skew the lines unnaturally in one direction or the other (depending on the collective mood of Leaf nation). But blurred lines aren’t the reason for my Leaf struggles, nor is it my hatred of this organization (Leaf hater is in my bio). The problem is they seem to disproportionately struggle and lose to inferior teams when I bet Leafs to win, and are seemingly invincible whenever I bet them to lose. More than 100% of my losses were betting this team to win but they only won 53% of their games.

Perhaps this is a team where I should be following my models, because they all beat me betting this team in Q1. Although a mighty chunk of that profit came from Chicago winning 4-1 in Toronto, hitting -1.5 goals at +600. Betting Venues hit another big bet on Buffalo -1.5 at +380. Are those types of events replicable? The goaltending and team defense isn’t a strength anymore, but Woll was good with a .910 SV%, Samsonov was bad (.878). Although Woll was the more profitable option to bet against, but a lot of that had to do with him starting for 2 of their biggest upset losses. Maybe the best strategy is to refrain from making any big bets until it looks like Samsonov will be starting. We’ll see. Whatever I’m doing isn’t working.

28) Detroit Red Wings, (-$1,405):

My long-time followers are probably sick of hearing this, but full disclosure, I’m a Detroit Red Wings fan. This can make me vulnerable to overreactions when they do well, and extreme pessimism when the outlook gets grim (which actually helped me in 2019/20). Hence why they’ve been near the bottom of my Profitability Rankings the last few seasons. For this reason, it might be prudent to recuse myself from giving out picks on Wings games, but it doesn’t hinder my ability to do a post-mortem on their results after the fact. Betting them to win too much wasn’t the problem, which seemed like a real vulnerability with their strong start to the season. At one point I was wondering what the line was to bet DeBrincat over 50 goals.

Alas my problems began after they had a few bad games and my pessimism took hold. It was all too easy to start believing this success was just an illusion, but they continued trucking right along, sitting 3rd in the division as late as December 8th. Alex Lyon didn’t play his first game until November 17th, but started a Vezina campaign once he got an opportunity (.952 SV% in 3 Q1 starts). Reimer was technically a better goalie than Husso in the first quarter, but found himself as the 3rd string by virtue of salary. Tailing History did well betting Red Wings games, but Betting Venues got crushed. Keep in mind, this is a much different team than those in the B.V sample, so it makes sense it’s messing up pucklines specifically.

29) Buffalo Sabres, (-$1,680):

The Buffalo Sabres were among my best teams to bet last season. I boarded the bandwagon very early and rode it all year for a big return. My ass was planted right back on that wagon when the current schedule began, expecting a full season of Devon Levi to give the team a boost. But alas, my “Midas touch” betting Sabres games where picks turned to gold, swung all the way to the other end of the spectrum and everything I touched turned to shit. They were bad when I bet them to win, and outstanding whenever I bet them to lose. They were dead last in my profitability spectrum for a few weeks, but rose out of the basement after the Tage Thompson injury and their opponents became a safer pick.

In Devon Levi’s 8 first quarter starts, I went 0-8 on my over/under picks, divided nearly evenly between blown unders and blown overs. I managed a nice profit betting Levi to lose (.876 Q1 SV%), but that wasn’t enough to overcome my struggles with his goal totals. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen emerged as their best goalie, posting a .914 SV% and winning 5 of 8 starts. Levi was sent to the AHL, which is the best thing for his development. Unfortunately, Eric Comrie hasn’t been any good either, so he may get recalled sooner rather than later (he was back up due to a UPL illness early in Q2). Tailing History and Game Sum both really struggled with this team, as they were unpredictable in nature, but Betting Venues did very well, so there was compliance to historical precedence, it was just geographic.

30) Edmonton Oilers, (-$1,764):

The Oilers have been languishing deep in my profitability basement since week one of the season. In their first game I made a big bet on Oilers to beat Vancouver (who typically struggle early in the schedule), Canucks won convincingly, so I doubled down next game expecting good teams to respond strong to embarrassment. Wrong. It later cost me even more money thinking this was just a temporary blip in the radar, then once I finally started shorting them aggressively, that’s when the season began to reverse course. By the time the quarter closed, I made a nice profit betting them to lose, but was down over $2,000 when picking them to win.

The biggest issue with this team was the goaltending, but for a while they also struggled scoring. Jack Campbell was sent to the AHL (.873 SV%), but Stuart Skinner wasn’t any better (.877 SV%), they just saved a little more money with Campbell in the minors. That goaltending issue resulted in the coach getting fired, and the team did improve significantly after the firing, notably Connor McDavid suddenly caught fire. Did he want his old junior coach to replace Woodcroft? Connor would never admit that, but it’s on the table. They might have only won 35% of their Q1 games, but my Betting Venues model ran a considerable profit betting them to cover -1.5 goals, hitting big bets against Seattle, Calgary, Nashville, and the Islanders.

31) Columbus Blue Jackets, (-$1,832):

The Columbus Blue Jackets finishing near the bottom of the standings last season was completely by accident, as the team made big acquisitions that suggested they would improve on the previous season. Johnny Gaudreau missed Matt Tkachuk and took a big step backwards, Patrik Laine battled injuries, and Elvis Merzlikins suddenly couldn’t stop beach ball (part of that may have been the defenders in front of him). They made more acquisitions in the summer targeting that back end, and suddenly Elvis was good again (.907 Q1 SV%), getting very good late November, early December. If that sustains, it changes the way I’m looking at this team going forward.

It’s strange to see the Blue Jackets this low in my Profitability Rankings because this is a team I’ve bet very well in the past. But they’re not here because they’re better or worse than what I’m betting. They have been one of my “butterfly effect” teams, where the opposite of my bet always seemed to hit. Letting me down when I expected them to win, but then looking like a completely different team when I was expecting them to lose. For all my struggles, this was one of the better teams for the Tailing History model and a good team for Betting Venues. Both those models crushed Blue Jackets -1.5 goals, delivering on a few longshots, but if they continue improving, those lines will get more expensive.

32) Montreal Canadiens, (-$1,899):

Frankly, I had no idea what to expect from the Montreal Canadiens entering this season, except that they probably were not going to be worse. Strong prospect base, trending generally in an upward direction, but actually picking their wins and losses proved to be a monumental challenge. Whenever you get a team who can upset good teams but also consistently lose to bad teams, that’s probably a team you want to avoid betting (unless you’re able to decode their secret sauce, which I’ve done before). But since I’m playing with pretend money and a mandate to bet every single game, abstention is not an option. But at least when I’m sharing picks with subscribers, it needs to be noted that I’m terrible betting this team.

Giving people any kind of advice on something you’re doing a terrible job with yourself is probably not ideal. But it does provide me some solace that all my models struggled with Montreal too. Shorting Travel avoided them completely, and finished in first place. All my other models were worse than me, so clearly this team was not complying with historical precedence in any way. They were bizarre in how they were rolling 3 goalies, with Sam Montembeault being the best (.908 SV%). I ran a small profit betting Jake Allen wins, Cayden Primeau’s losses and overs, but lost a substantial amount of money betting Montembeault to win, lose, over, and under. He was the source of all my problems.