Fantasy Hockey Draft Busts 2024/25
"Busts" relative to Yahoo rankings...
Welcome to my annual fantasy hockey draft bust list, which may require a name change. The term “bust” is a popular label in this hobby to denote draft disappointment, but this is also not intended as a list of players destined for Huberdeau-ish catastrophic collapse. That may unfold in some of these cases, but mostly it’s a list of players that I’m avoiding at their average draft position on Yahoo, whether it’s injury risk, battles against Father Time, or just players in bad situations, these are the guys I’m rarely touching in mocks unless they slip into my comfort zone. Others are perfectly fine with no projected decline, they’re just bad draft value because Yahoo ranked them too high, or higher than the aforementioned comfort region.
The preceding disclaimer is important because it’s all but guaranteed that one more players on this list will start the season on fire, and I’ll lose sleep at night regretting my decision to assign the bust label. Dougie Hamilton last year is an example. I was unwilling to take him at his ADP because of injury risk (and the injection of Luke Hughes), then he popped off for 16 PTS in his first 20 GP making me look foolish. At least until his season ending injury 20 games into the schedule. Thatcher Demko also cracked last year’s list with similar justifications as Dougie, and he was a leading candidate for the Vezina before getting injured and missing a big chunk of the 2nd half.
Regretting these decisions in October or November is pointless, because Father Time can strike just as easily in the second half as the first, maybe even more so; and those listed here for injury risk can catch fire before catching injuries that eventually reflect righteously on my concern. Besides, the consequences of adding someone here who does not belong is less than draft value strikeouts. Using high draft capital on a player of my recommending proven wrong will hurt you more than avoiding risk. Ergo, less sleep is lost over whiffed busts. Players at risk of injury don’t always fall victim. Each player’s personal battle against Father Time unfolds differently, but they all lose eventually (exception for those retiring at high points in their careers like Lidstrom).
Today and tomorrow will be the busiest days of the draft season until next weekend when a majority of leagues will wrap drafting. That’s why my pre-draft rankings and draft bargain posts are already up on the blog. My projections are the last piece of fantasy content coming until my week 1 waiver wire report on October 3rd. Those projections will be sent exclusively to my free subscribers and won’t be available to the public. You’ll also really want to subscribe if you like betting on hockey games, as my roster of 40 betting models will be unveiled in the near future. I’m confident my summer recalibration project will lead to strong results, like those produced in the 4th quarter of last season thanks to my Shorting Value model catching fire. Only 1 of the 40 needs to catch fire for me to ride the wave.
One final disclaimer, both the Yahoo rankings and my projection numbers are subject to change. Yahoo did overhaul ranks last preseason and history could repeat. If those get adjusted and some of the names below are moved later, that player may cease having negative value. Most of these players can be effective at the right price. Now that preseason has begun and player injury/linemate news hits the mainstream, I’m reconsidering some of my original decisions. Every player missing the start of the season needs to have somebody else fill the newly available minutes, such as seeing Lehkonen injured compelled me to increase Drouin’s ice time projection.
Good luck!
Blake Coleman, Cgy
Yahoo Rank: 76
My Rank: 200
Mock Avg: 102
While the Calgary Flames were falling from grace last season, one player running against the wind was Blake Coleman, who jumped from 38 PTS per 82 GP up to 57 (the highest of his career). He was especially valuable in leagues counting shots and hits, but avoid drafting him expecting last year’s scoring production. My projection has him dropping back down to 39 PTS, but Yahoo ranked him at 76. His average in my mocks was 102 and his listed ADP on Yahoo is 143. He clocked into my rankings at 200, but there was a big variance between the 3 variations. First rank was 139, next attempt was 193, while the projection-based had him at 269. He is projected for line 2 with Backlund-Zary and not listed on either power play (he averaged nearly a minute per game last season, nearly zero the year prior). In a deeper bangers league, you can comfortably pull the trigger in that 140-150 range, but shallower leagues, avoid altogether; or maybe he gets hot at some point and you grab him off waivers.
Mark Stone, Veg
Yahoo Rank: 110
My Rank: 194
Mock Avg: 139
There was a brief moment when Stone was considered for my bargains list for no other reason than using the tag “everybody must get Stone”, but alas his annual placing on my bust list was retained. The description from last year can simply be copy-pasted: just not interested in the injury risk where he’s being taken. I’m sure he’ll be effective when healthy, but I’ll pass. Maybe if you’re in a salary cap league where you can stash him on IR then play him for free in the playoffs, he’s a fantastic investment. Not sure if that format even exists, but Stoner would be a coveted commodity. Granted, that would require your league count NHL playoffs, given the Knights will have him on IR until day one of real playoffs, not fantasy playoffs. Yahoo ranked him at 110, but his average in my mocks was 139 (zero of those were me). In 36 mocks, he was chosen top 100 three times and after pick 160 eleven times. If he slips far enough, there is upside, but your league better have plenty of IR slots.
Alex Ovechkin, Wsh
Yahoo Rank: 36
My Rank: 42
Mock Avg: 36
My past attempts at forecasting Ovie’s battle against Father Time proved futile, driven by the data suggesting that players who throw lots of hits are at higher risk of decline (with exceptions of course). Then last season, Big Daddy Time finally struck a major blow, as the scoring rate dropped from 84 to 67. He’s turning 40 in 2025. His average pick taken in my mocks was 33, The players I’m taking in that range are Jake Guentzel, Sebastian Aho, Mitch Marner, Jeremy Swayman, Jake Oettinger, or even Barkov/Bedard in the 40s. The reason to take Ovechkin is if you want to cheer for him to break the goals record, but I’d rather win my fantasy league. The Capitals did add several pieces which could lead to a “rising tide lifts all boats” situation, so if he does slip into the 50s or 60s, I’m comfortable rolling the dice. He was taken by me once in 36 mocks at pick 65. It felt good getting him there.
Gustav Nyquist, Nsh
Yahoo Rank: 132
My Rank: 210
Mock Avg: 165
Readers of my 2023/24 fantasy reports might be surprised to see this name appear on a bust list given his rank near the top of my most frequently recommended waiver add list last season. If he gets the same deployment as last season, he has a strong chance of nearing the same production, my concern is the additions of Marchessault and Stamkos bumping him down the depth chart. Daily Faceoff still has him on line 1 with O’Reilly and Forsberg, but down to the 2nd power play unit. Even if he starts the schedule on line 1, he’s a risk to lose that job anytime and Yahoo’s 132 ranking is too high if his center becomes Tommy Novak and he gets less power play time. His PTS per 82 GP jumped from 43 to 76 last year and my projection is anticipating regression to 54, not all the way back, but significantly less.
Mikhail Sergachev, Uta
Yahoo Rank: 67
My Rank: 109
Mock Avg: 73
When Sergachev recovered from a broken leg ahead of schedule to return in the playoffs for Tampa, it was an amazing feel-good story. He broke that leg his first game back after missing 17 with a “lower body injury”. He’s a warrior, no doubt about it, but if you’re confident that lower body is now 100% and he’s going to be 100%, you may be setting yourself up for regret. His average pick taken in my mocks was 73, right in the range where I’m frequently drafting Heiskanen, Dobson, Seider. Even if Sergachev plays 82 games, he has competition on the power play depth chart in Sean Durzi and he’s no longer wearing a Tampa Bay Lightning jersey with frequent exposure to elite weaponry. Granted, I have taken Dougie Hamilton a few times average pick 70 and he’s also injury prone with competition of PP time. At least Dougie didn’t speed himself back and risk additional future deterioration. The Devils power play is much more potent than Utah. Daily Faceoff now has Sergachev on PP1, but there’s no guarantee that lasts. Durzi tends to be available 150 picks later.
Alexandar Georgiev, Col
Yahoo Rank: 49
My Rank: 80
Mock Avg: 65
The Colorado Avalanche are among the best teams in the league, but have dropped into a 5-way tie for 5th place in Cup odds. There are some big question marks with this team (like Nichuskin-Landeskog) and the salary cap problems that could ensue. The other concern has to be the goaltending, as Alexandar Georgiev had multiple bouts with the yips, including round 1 of the playoffs. The team has the weaponry to score their way out of trouble, including round 1 of the playoffs, so if you’re in a league that’s heavily wins based, his average draft position could be a solid investment. That ADP is much lower than last year when he was often among the first goalies taken. Feels unlikely those who weathered those storms last year are interested in sailing this ship again. I’m not. He could lead the league in wins, or get benched. The Yahoo rank sits at 49, but his average in my mocks was 65 (could have been a frequent auto-draft target in that range). In 36 mocks, he was taken by pick 49 three times. He was available in the 70s twelve times, with the latest of 36 being pick 79. I’d rather have Skinner or Markstrom, my 2 most frequent picks in the range Georgiev was most actively mocked.
Chris Kreider, NYR
Yahoo Rank: 21
My Rank: 47
Mock Avg: 27
This is another player where forecasting the battle vs Father Time has proven unsuccessful. The same “hitting wears bodies down” rule that’s provable in many cases does have exceptions, but few that have oscillated back-and-forth like Kreider. His PTS per 82 GP the last 4 seasons: 49, 78, 56, 75. That’s an unsettling pattern/variance for someone averaging pick 25 in my mocks. If you’re taking him because your league counts hits, well that’s been trending downwards the last few seasons, dropping from 2.3 per game in 2021 to 1.2 in 2024. Father Time is always lurking in the shadows waiting to throw blindside elbows to 33-year-olds. Give me the younger legs being picked in that range with fewer hard miles on the odometer. If he’s still on the board in the 40s, that’s a comfortable range to pull the trigger, but that was only the case in 2 of my 36 mocks.
Frederick Andersen, Car
Yahoo Rank: 82
My Rank: 102
Mock Avg: 89
When Freddy Andersen is healthy and standing between the Carolina pipes, that’s a fantastic option for any fantasy team in any league. Sadly, healthy Freddy seems to be a diminishing commodity, with an average draft position of 89 in my mocks. At that stage in drafts the tier of reliable high-volume goalies is mostly gone and you’re left choosing from the next tier of risk-reward options. As you may have noticed on my Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheet, I’m also taking Adin Hill every so often despite suffering through his often-injured status on one of my teams last year. Is that more injury bust hypocrisy from me? Maybe, but my average Adin Hill pick is 92. The goalies I’m taking in the Freddy range are Markstrom-Skinner-Sorokin when they slip that far. My rank of 102 is only 20 behind his Yahoo rank, but he was gone by pick 103 in 100% of my mocks. Sadly, I cannot verify how many of those were auto-drafts. He could slip further in a high IQ room that’s aware of the health risk (and Kochetkov ascending).
Thatcher Demko, Van
Yahoo Rank: 83
My Rank: 99
Mock Avg: 62
Thatcher Demko returns to my bust list after embarrassing me in the first half of last season, but that was partially due to him embarrassing me one year earlier on my bargains list, when he stunk then got injured. The injury history was responsible for a fair share of my hesitancy last year, and now we’ve learned he’s not ready for camp and could miss the start of the season. He’s dynamite when he’s on, but the injury risk for a top 100 pick is unacceptable. There was also a disturbing conversation recently on Chiclets about his health. Biz has been living in Vancouver and heard something unsettling blowing in the wind, that playing with pain might be his new normal. Yet the reports on Daily Faceoff say he’s skating and could be ready for the start of the season. If he’s ready day one and the team continues playing strong team defense under Tocchet, he could embarrass me once again. If that happens, I’ll try not to lose any sleep because when he’s out a few months later in the schedule, this synopsis will be entirely redeemed.
Claude Giroux, Ott
Yahoo Rank: 123
My Rank: 181
Mock Avg: 170
Claude Giroux has performed admirably evading predatory hits from Father Time, but the age and ranking have made him a prime target for my last few bust lists. I’m not going back to check, but this could be his 4th or 5th consecutive appearance here. If you think of the rounds of Claude’s fight vs Papa Time like a game of musical chairs, I don’t want to be holding stock if the music abruptly stops and my ass hits the floor. But the fat lady may stay quiet until further along the schedule. She’s been off-stage warming up for the last few years waiting to wail “nananana nananana, hey hey hey, goodbye” to Giroux productivity. Yahoo ranked him 123, my rank is 181. His average in my mock drafts was 170, so that’s another player nobody was buying at the ascribed rank.
Tomas Hertl, Veg
Yahoo Rank: 73
My Rank: 165
Mock Avg: 136
Including Hertl on this list brings risk because it’s entirely plausible he’ll be productive his first full season in Vegas, my concern here is the rank and who he is expected to play with. He’ll be filling the role as second line center and is currently projected to play with Stone and Dorofeyev. If Olofsson struggles on line one, Stone could find himself with Eichel and feels likely to be injured eventually anyway. This team is wickedly strong down the middle, but the wings are suspect, enough that I’m concerned about Hertl’s full season 5v5 scoring. Yahoo ranked him 73, where my rank was 165. He was chosen in all 36 of my mocks at an average of 136, only taken in the top 100 three times. The mock draft lobby was largely ignoring the 73 rank; even the auto-drafters mostly filled their 2 starting center slots by that range, so they weren’t interested either. I took him once at pick 147.
Sidney Crosby, Pit
Yahoo Rank: 18
My Rank: 24
Mock Avg: 21
I’m not sure what to make of the 2024/25 Pittsburgh Penguins, aside from feeling it’s unlikely they’re better than last year. Dubas did pick out a few interesting names from the discount bin this summer, but they’re also +125 to make the playoffs with a 44% implied probability. Oddsmakers aren’t buying that Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass will move the needle. Crosby continued his impressive evasion of Father Time’s flying elbows, but that’s not exactly true for all Sid’s aging teammates, and a rescinding tide lowers all boats. Guentzel was injured before being traded near the deadline so their time together was limited, but this year it’ll be exactly zero minutes. The only problem with declaring Crosby a draft bust is that my own stats projections have him being taken in a very appropriate slot. My rank is only 6 slots below Yahoo, with my projection dropping him by 7 PTS down to 87. If he scores 87 PTS for $8.7M this season, taking him at 24 is perfectly fine, I’m just nervous about the team, and maybe that should have impacted his projection more than it did. The latest he fell in any of my mocks was 34.
Received Consideration
Evgeni Malkin, Pit, (Yahoo rank 133, my rank 178)
John Tavares, Tor, (Yahoo rank 55, my rank 71)
Brock Nelson, NYI, (Yahoo rank 80, my rank 107)
Anze Kopitar, LA, (Yahoo rank 86, my rank 130)
William Karlsson, Veg, (Yahoo rank 130, my rank 236)
Darcy Kuemper, LA, (Yahoo rank 129, my rank 163)
Anders Lee, NYI, (Yahoo rank 194, my rank 250)
Evander Kane, Edm, (Yahoo rank 104, my rank 290)
Casey Mittelstadt, Col, (Yahoo rank 170, my rank 239)
Arturri Lehkonen, Col, (Yahoo rank 111, my rank 161)