Fantasy Hockey Draft Bargains 2024/25
Welcome to my annual fantasy hockey draft bargains post, formerly known as sleepers. One such post with the previous title solicited an angry response from a fantasy purist who argued that players on my list were far too awake to be considered sleeping and shame on my for violating the strictly agreed upon definition. Whether or not a player satisfies the sleeper label, if a legit star is getting drafted a few rounds too late, fantasy managers are the ones sleeping (some blame belongs on those ranking for Yahoo). You are the ones asleep, not Miro Heiskanen, but make no mistake, snoozing is happening. All that being said, I actually prefer “Draft Bargains” above “Sleepers”, because it’s just a better definition of what you’re about to read.
In my decades of fantasy hockey experience, my process for identifying “sleepers” has evolved into frequent mock drafts, recording the results, then finding value. At least that’s a strong method for identifying value for shallow public leagues. But there’s also all-stars from last season who are going undrafted in many of these mocks. Given that a large majority of fantasy participants play in 12-team leagues or less, that tends to be my primary focus, but not at the expense of deep leaguer needs. You’re all getting equal representation here, and in my weekly waiver wire reports. If you would like to use my personal draft rankings for your own pre-rank process, click here.
This list contains 10 shallow league targets, 10 deeper league targets, and 10 players 10% owned or less on Yahoo, all 3 sections with 10 runners up, 60 names total. If you’re competing in one of those 20 teamers, it can get nuts (goalie scarcity becomes a problem) and there are names here you can target later in drafts. The Yahoo mock draft lobby is not where you’re going to sniff out the deep sleepers, those meeting the strict definition of purists, so that’s where my player projections come in handy. Those projections will be sent by email exclusively to my free subscribers (one of the perks of paying the $0 subscription fee), and also heavily influence my draft rankings.
This is where I’m legally obligated to disclaim that last year’s draft bargains list contained some hard strikeouts with goalies struggling out of the gate; Stuart Skinner, Ilya Samsonov, Pheonix Copley, and Spencer Knight (who was put in the player assistance program after the list was published). If you drafted any of those goalies last year on my advice, you may have harbored animosity towards my fantasy goaltending advice by November, but at least Skinner and Samsonov were excellent in the 2nd half, so not all the strikeouts finished as such. Problem is; goaltending is the hardest position to forecast and none of the safe options are bargains. “Sleeper” goalies have a high strikeout rate. Occupational hazard.
The most important disclaimer to include here is that these bargains are relative to where they are being taken in Yahoo drafts and/or their Yahoo rank, so if you play on ESPN or Fantrax, some of these alleged bargains may be taken far sooner than the target range. There, you’ve been warned. Though I’m anticipating that my rankings will still be valuable to those competing on other platforms given that my stat projection played a key role in the order. It’s also possible that Yahoo updates their rankings between now and the start of the season, and I’m not posting an updated list if that happens. The Yahoo ownership was recorded last week, so that could be completely different by Monday after a busy draft weekend. Sorry, but it’s time to shift back to betting preparations once the busts go up tomorrow.
Shallow Leagues
Tim Stutzle, Ott, C/LW: The Ottawa Senators 22-year-old star center was on both my fantasy teams last season when he declined from 90 to 70 PTS, but for most of the schedule was satisfied with the output provided. That drop in points is the biggest reason behind his slide down the Yahoo ranks, but I’m not choosing to believe the kid peaked at 21 and it’ll be a downward trajectory going forward (despite the fact peaking at 21-22-23 seems to be growing more common). There is big upside here, which made him one of my most frequently chosen players in mocks. While I did pick him 13 times at an average of 57, Timmy landed 29 in my rankings. He was on both my teams for last year’s decline, and yet I want him back.
Tage Tompson, Buf, C/RW: It would be nearly seamless to copy-paste-edit the Tim Stutzle description into the curious case of Tage Thompson, with the biggest difference being Tage is older with some injury history. Like Stutzle, he took a step backward last season (99 PTS per 82 GP down to 65), but injury played a bigger factor for Tage. If someone offered me Thompson for Stutzle in a keeper league, it would be rejected within seconds. Yet, if Tage is 100% healthy and can reach his previously established healthy ceiling, then where he’s going in Yahoo drafts is a steal. Yahoo ranked him 62, I chose him 9 times at an average of 57, yet he’s 37 in my rankings. Just because he slips to the 50s in mocks doesn’t mean I’ll force myself to wait. My belief in the physical tools is only mildly discouraged. There’s a high ceiling
Jason Robertson, Dal, LW: Where Jason Robertson falls in drafts depends on the collective IQ of the draft room. Yahoo ranked him 31, I ranked him 21. He landed on my roster in 11 of 36 mocks at an average pick of 27. His average when selected by others was also 27. Frankly, he would have been on my roster more often, but at a certain point it became prudent to stop picking him to see where he falls otherwise (same with Stutzle, Thompson, Seider). The young winger dropped from 109 PTS down to 80, but the upside has been established. If he gets the full season playing top line with Wyatt Johnston, that upward trajectory could prove contagious.
Martin Necas, Car, C/RW: While we’re on the subject of my most frequently chosen fantasy players, Marty Necas in Carolina needs to be mentioned. Taken in 11 of my first 30 mocks, ranking him as my 5th most commonly taken player at an average pick of 145. There is going to be more ice time available given some of their departures, probably more power play time too. Once we get to pick 145 in a 12-team league, that’s very close to the bench boundary. In leagues that size, my entire bench tends to be expendable. Yahoo ranked him 148, his average in my mocks was 133, but once my projections were finished and used in my ranking process, it was decided the appropriate time to pull the trigger is pick 95. The Canes do need some prospects to take a step forward to maintain the level from last year (especially Nadeau) but Necas should log plenty of minutes regardless.
Jordan Kyrou, Stl, C/RW: My 8th most frequently drafted player in mocks (at an average of 158) was Jordan Kyrou, who scored 140 PTS in the last 2 seasons. This was not a player I intended to target prior to the mock draft lobby’s grand opening, but Yahoo’s ranking at 135 led to slippage down the draft board. In my actual rankings, he slotted in at 93 between Horvat and Necas. Kyrou-Necas are very similar in terms of age, situations, Yahoo ranks, and my projections exceeding rankings. Just because he was frequently available in the 150s, the scoring projections justify a top 100 selection. The Blues are a lesser team, but Kyrou is on the top line with better projected linemates than Necas.
Jake Sanderson, Ott, D: Jake Sanderson was near the top of my 2022/23 bust list simply because Yahoo had ranked him too high and there was just more battle tested options available in that range, but his bright future was never in doubt. His 39 PTS in 2023/24 was hardly disappointing for a 21-year-old defenseman, and he’s poised to quarterback that top power play unit in Ottawa. Yahoo ranked him 196, my rank was 139, which often landed him in prime real estate for my D4. I’m not terribly concerned about Thomas Chabot usurping him on the top power play, and Sanderson could be a big beneficiary if the team finally takes a step forward this year.
Mike Matheson. MTL, D: While Mike Matheson is not guaranteed to retain his position on the Montreal power play (the Lane Hutson scouting report was glowing on Spittin Chiclets this week), that’s where Mike is currently projected to play by Daily Faceoff. Yahoo’s rank clocked in at 197 (which is very low for a 62-point defenseman with 187 shots), my rank for Matheson is 121. He was chosen by me in 4 of 36 mock drafts at an average of 126. At that stage, D tend to be expendable for me, so if he gets bounced off the power play, cutting him loose won’t hurt. If you’re in a deep league, Hutson was ranked at 920 on Yahoo, so you can snag him later in the draft as insurance (my rank is 347, but that was prior to the Chiclets discussion).
Moritz Seider, Det, D: DISCLAIMER ALERT! My life-long status as a Red Wings fan may cloud my judgement here, so consider yourself warned. In my first 30 mock drafts, Mo Seider was taken 16 times (at an average of 85.4), 4 more times than 2nd place Stutzle. It actually would have been more, but at a certain point it became prudent to stop myself from picking Mo, just to see how far he fell otherwise. If you’re drafting on Yahoo, Seider was buried too low in their rankings which have a major impact on average draft position. They ranked him at 139 overall, but he was gone by pick 100 in 29 of my first 30 mock drafts (latest 107). Meaning the public isn’t buying the ranking, but he’s not showing up on people’s screens until the later rounds unless you scroll down the list or set your own rankings.
Update: Seider signed a 7-year deal on the eve of this getting posted. Which I assume means he gets the green light for more power play time.
Linus Ullmark, Ott, G: Part of the difficulty with listing sleeper goalies for shallower leagues, there are not many goalies I’m interested relying on after pick 100. There are deeper league options who could provide upside, but few who have my confidence before any games have been played. In my first 30 mocks, 79% of my goalie picks were in the top 100. The one name I’m taking the most, averaging at 113, is Linus Ullmark. He was the reigning Vezina winner last season, eventually usurped by Jeremy Swayman and traded to the Ottawa Senators. We already saw Korpisalo go from excellent to bad when he was acquired by Ottawa, and Ullmark could similarly struggle with the new team. But the Sens are also a young team on the rise and could take a big step forward.
Connor Ingram, Uta, G: One of last season’s goalie breakouts was Connor Ingram, playing 50 games with 23 wins, 6 shutouts, and a .907 SV%. Once he wrestled the undisputed #1 title from Vejmelka in the first half of the season, he went on a wicked heater where he was among the best goalies in the league. That lasted until almost exactly the day that I traded for him in fantasy, then he went ice cold and did not help me at all. Yahoo ranked him at 165 and I ranked him at 129. We got a glimpse of that ceiling and the additions that Utah made on the blueline should help settle the d-zone. In the event Vejmelka outplays Ingram early in the schedule, he could win the #1 job. I’m not too worried given he sucked last season, but nothing is impossible. “Karel the thrill” could stage a comeback.
Runner ups
Matt Boldy, LW/RW, (Yahoo rank 94, my rank 76)
Pyotr Kochetkov, G, (Yahoo rank 134, my rank 90)
Drake Batherson, LW/RW, (Yahoo rank 137, my rank 96)
Lucas Raymond, LW/RW, (Yahoo rank 100, my rank 83)
Thomas Harley, D, (Yahoo rank 203, my rank 140)
Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, (Yahoo rank 103, my rank 86)
Charlie Lindgren, G, (Yahoo rank 211, my rank 116)
Erik Karlsson, D, (Yahoo rank 156, my rank 100)
Aaron Ekblad, D, (Yahoo rank 281, my rank 150)
Wyatt Johnston, C/RW, (Yahoo rank 47, my rank 40)
Deeper Leagues (under 50% owned)
Dylan Cozens, Buf, C: This 23-year-old center’s scoring dropped by 15 PTS last season, but given the age and the upward trajectory of their young forward group, my projection has him rebounding to 62 PTS, similar to players being taken in the 80s and 90s. Yahoo ranked him 222, I ranked him 121, but if you’re in a draft with teams sorting by xRank, you can get him later. Daily Faceoff has him playing 2nd line with Quinn-Benson (both featured in the deep league section below), top power play, and the team has good puck movers on the back-end.
Cam York, Phi, D: For a defenseman who scored 30 PTS last season and is currently penciled into the team’s top pair and power play, Yahoo’s ranking at 519 is insulting. He currently sits 214 in my rankings and is someone you can get really late in a low-IQ draft room. At age 23, there’s still plenty of runway to push that scoring ceiling higher and the breakout can happen anytime. Nobody who looks at the Philly page on Daily Faceoff is waiting until after pick 500 to select York. Jamie Drysdale does have the talent to potentially unseat Cam on PP1, hence why he’s featured below, but York can still put up respectable numbers on PP2 (as can Drysdale).
Dylan Guenther, Uta, RW: Dylan Guenther has yet to play a full season in the NHL, but after 35 PTS in 45 GP last year (64-point pace), his AHL career should be in the rearview. Daily Faceoff has him pencilled into 2nd line winger next to Logan Cooley, and on the top power play. The Coyotes just signed him to a big new extension, which absolutely confirms how they see his future unfolding. With that deal signed, there won’t be any secretive talk between GM and coach about taking him off the power play to limit his output (there were allegations with Mo Seider). Yahoo ranked Guenther 204, I ranked him 134. Bright future.
Quinton Byfield, LA, RW: Byfield was among my most frequently recommended waiver adds last season when he was deployed on top line and top power play. Now he’s penciled in as the second line center, so he should be adding C eligibility soon. Yahoo ranked him 138, my rank was 123. His average in my mock drafts was 157 (11 of those were me at an average of 161), so he’s been slipping in drafts despite a high rank. Surely some see line 2 as a demotion, and it could very well negatively impact output, but I’m a big believer in the physical tools. He’s a beast and will still get to play top power play and with Fiala on line 2.
Yegor Sharangovich, CGY, C/RW: The disrespect shown to Sharangovich in Yahoo’s 404 ranking after a 30-goal, 60-point campaign is shameful. He landed 157 in my final rankings, but belonged at 132 ranking strictly be projections (mine is 61 PTS). My first ranking had him at 178, next 174, which is still a few hundred ahead of his Y-rank. He’ll be top line and top power play in Calgary this year, dual position eligibility, and should get plenty of ice time and opportunity to improve on last season. Yeah, the rest of the team might stink, but Yegor will be getting all the premium minutes with the best center.
Joey Daccord, SEA, G: There is downside/risk in every goalie under 50% owned on Yahoo. Filip Gustavsson might have the best odds of breaking camp as the #1, but he has a history of slow starts, Fleury is still good and Wallstedt is ascending. Next best is Joey Daccord, who broke out last year replacing an injured and struggling Grubauer, playing 50 games with a .916 SV%. Though eventually Grubauer found his form and poached starts. If the higher paid goalie is strong out of the gates, that will hurt Joey’s value. My projection had him for 42 starts, which was enough to land spot 126 in my rankings. At that stage in drafts, the goalie options get thin.
Sean Durzi, Uta, D: One of the reasons you can find Mikhail Sergachev on my bust list (aside from injury risk) is that he currently sits behind Sean Durzi on the Daily Faceoff power play depth chart. There’s no guarantee he’ll hold that role, but he surpassed a 40-point pace in each of the last 2 seasons and currently sits 247 in the Yahoo ranks. Honestly, how they ranked a 41-point defenseman that low is baffling, but that could just be somebody thinking Sergachev is going to steal all his thunder. My ranking is 175, but depending on the room, you can get him 3-4 rounds later.
Matty Beniers, Sea, C: The dreaded sophomore slump slapped Matty last year, with his scoring rate dropping from 58 to 39, despite a nearly full minute increase in ice time. Yet he’s still only 21-years-old and expected to center line 1, power play 1. He was only drafted 5 times in 36 mocks (192 players chosen) and 4 of those were me at an average of 182. Yahoo ranked him 206, my rank is 187. Ranking solely based on my stat projection had him at 182, my exact average in mocks. Granted, at that stage of mocks, typically it’s 90% auto-drafting. In a smart/awake 12-team draft room, he’s less likely to go undrafted.
K’Andre Miller, NYR, D: The biggest knock on Miller for fantasy managers is that he’s not currently listed on either power play unit, and his scoring rate declined by 14 PTS down to 31. Where Miller helps you most is hits, but it’s entirely plausible he can bounce back into 40-point output at age 24. Defensemen age on a different scale than forwards. My projection has him at 36 PTS and Yahoo ranked him at 287, my rank 195. Trouba is the D listed ahead of him on PP2, and there’s no guarantee that lasts either, given both played 0.4 power play minutes last year.
Cam Talbot, Det, G: The biggest issue facing Talbot is the competition for Detroit starts from the 3-headed monster including Husso-Lyon. That might make my 136 ranking optimistic in hindsight, especially considering Yahoo ranked him 231, so he’s someone you can potentially get later. He was picked in 9 of my 36 mocks at an average of 180. What I like most about Talbot was his hot start last season (added in both my leagues) and he was in the Vezina conversation by November. Husso can’t stay healthy. If Talbot starts hot and Detroit is competitive, sell high.
Runner ups
JJ Peterka, RW, (Yahoo rank 160, my rank 125)
Pavel Buchnevich, C/LW, (Yahoo rank 141, my rank 132)
Filip Gustavsson, G, (Yahoo rank 228, my rank 151)
Anthony Stolarz, G, (Yahoo rank 309, my rank 165)
Matthew Knies, LW, (Yahoo rank 426, my rank 171)
Pavel Mintyukov, D, (Yahoo rank 268, my rank 172)
Jake Neighbours, LW/RW, (Yahoo rank 410, my rank 179)
Sean Monahan, C, (Yahoo rank 322, my rank 218)
Jeremy Lauzon, LW, (Yahoo rank 323, my rank 228)
Lane Hutson, D, (Yahoo rank 920, my rank 347)
The Abyss (10% owned or less)
Morgan Geekie, C/RW, (Yahoo rank 324, my rank 217)
Alex Nedeljkovic, G, (Yahoo rank 340, my rank 220)
William Eklund, (Yahoo rank 609, my rank 232)
Nils Hoglander, LW, (Yahoo rank 418, my rank 234)
Brandt Clarke, D, (Yahoo rank 809, my rank 235)
Daniil Tarasov, G, (Yahoo rank 435, my rank 247)
Jack Quinn, RW, (Yahoo rank 623, my rank 254)
Cam Fowler, D, (Yahoo rank 537, my rank 276)
Jamie Drysdale, D, (Yahoo rank 816, my rank 292)
Marco Rossi, LW, (Yahoo rank 490, my rank 298)
Runner ups
Fabian Zetterlund, LW/RW, (Yahoo rank 345, my rank 162)
Joel Hofer, G, (Yahoo rank 314, my rank 184)
Kirill Marchenko, RW, (Yahoo rank 341, my rank 226)
Dmitri Voronkov, LW, (Yahoo rank 497, my rank 245)
Ryan Pulock, D, (Yahoo rank 468, my rank 286)
Olen Zellweger, D, (Yahoo rank 797, my rank 303)
Pavel Dorofeyev, LW, (Yahoo rank 597, my rank 323)
Jared Spurgeon, D, (Yahoo rank 670, my rank 382)
Zach Benson, LW, (Yahoo rank 627, my rank 388)
Bradly Nadeau, LW, (Yahoo rank 1178, my rank 390)
Mavrik Bourque, RW, (Yahoo rank 1154, my rank 392)