Week 8 NHL Betting Report

Week eight of the NHL season has been logged into the history books, and I’m excited to report a $94 profit! That number would have been much higher had I taken the week off from over/under (as my sister did (she beat me in per $ return)), but my mandate is two wagers on every single game, so market volatility is no reason to abstain. That’s why my bets are with pretend money, then each week I report what worked and failed. If you read my report last week, you knew that scoring was trending down at a time of year it tends to trend up. Ironically it was a great week for my Tailing History OU model who was anticipating goals. Sadly, the model I was tailing had too much low scoring input data. Time to stop defaulting under.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

• My Weekly Profit: $94

• My Season Profit: -$2,345

For those who are new here, that -$2,345 number you see above is from $110,000 fake dollars wagered, so a 2% loss. $1,900 of that is from over/under, which is why some time was spent this week plugging holes in the models. My simple algorithms are performing better than my complex models, so optimization may require downsizing complexity in favor of simplicity. Once again, all my picks were shared either on the blog or social media this week and if you ignored my over/under and just tailed every single one of my moneyline/puckline bets, you had a good week. Over/under is supposed to be easier than picking winners, but that’s not the case for me this season.

This is my last report from my old computer, as a new one was purchased today, still waiting to open the box. This report needed to be finished first. I’m just jacked to have a “page down” key again, as highlighting large data samples in spreadsheets is annoying with the page up button when the starting point is in the middle of a large sheet. I’m also hoping the faster CPU will make this all run more efficiently, consuming less total time. The size and scope of my gambling spreadsheet has gotten bigger than its home, so it was time to upsize.

Week 8 Results

One of my big observations from the market bets below, I took an $800 loss betting big favorites on the moneyline (at least -150). I smartly avoided the minefield of faves -1.5 goals, but did hit a big bet on Boston vs Montreal because we were on Cayden Primeau alert. At the same time, I banked $600 on mild road favorites, so it wasn’t all faves who screwed me, just the ones with the best odds of winning. Dallas was one of those teams, but you can read more about them below. It’s still unclear how long dogs -1.5 goals will remain hot, but check in to my report each week for updates on the latest trends.

*Note* “Overall Market Bets” based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

My two biggest failures this week was not betting San Jose to win more often, or betting Seattle to lose. Kraken have lost 3 in a row and currently sit 5 PTS back of the wildcard with 4 teams ahead (including Anaheim who has suddenly won 6 of 10). Both the Hockey PDOcast and Spittin Chiclets recently blasted the head coach in Anaheim for the terrible job he’s doing, and suddenly the team is showing signs of life. The Florida Panthers are probably the best team in the NHL right now, after what they just did to Carolina. It’s time to board their bandwagon, though I’m not sure that I ever fully departed, aside from when Barkov-Tkachuk were injured.

My Team of the Week: Minnesota Wild, $895

The Minnesota Wild went 3-1 this week and I went 4-0 picking those outcomes, with the loss coming against Winnipeg. They are 8th in my full season profit ranks, running a profit betting them both to win and lose. Their unders also went 4-0 as scoring was resurgent and they are officially my best team to bet under for the entire season. Goaltender Filip Gustavsson has a .935 SV% in his last 11 games, even Fleury has been decent, with a .911 SV% in the last 30 days, but on a light workload. They are riding Gustavsson pretty hard, which has helped them overtake Winnipeg for first place in the division, bolstered by their 10-4 road record.

The St. Louis Blues were dead last in my profitability rankings 7 days ago, but all those demons were exorcized when they fired their coach and hired Jim Montgomery. They just happened to be going on a cross-conference road trip and were big dogs against the Rangers and Devils, so my Betting Venues and Division vs Division flagged both as a lucrative bets -1.5 goals, both lines around +400. That was my dog of the week. They did lose their last game against Philly as the favorite, otherwise they would have ranked as my #1 best team of the last 7 days. I’m hoping the new coach bump is permanent, but I still like them more as a dog than favorite.

My Worst Team of the Week: Dallas Stars, -$717

The Dallas Stars were my pick to win the Stanley Cup last season in my NHL.com bracket challenge, with an insanely deep and talented roster. They are 10-2 at home and 5-6 on the road. My error was betting the road team in all of their games. NOTE TO SELF: BET HOME TEAMS IN DALLAS GAMES. Please don’t let me forget that. I’m working so many different angles in my brain, it’s hard to keep track of everything. The good news is that I’m turning a full season profit on Dallas, so the situation is not nearly as dire as Tampa or Los Angeles, two teams you should probably be fading my picks because I’m outstanding at picking the wrong outcome. Dallas 6-2 defeat vs Chicago was my single biggest loss.

My second worst team was the Colorado Avalanche, who ranked #2 in my profit ranks entering the week, entirely from overs and betting them to lose. I went 0-4 on their over/unders, and took a big loss betting them to win. One of those games was against Tampa when they got rocked 8-2, so I felt shame having recommended the Avalanche, but there surely would have been a disclaimer that I suck betting Tampa, if not sorry. They just acquired Scott Wedgewood to solve their goalie crisis, but Wedge has been struggling this season. Maybe their goalie coaches think he’ll be a good fit in their system, otherwise my expectations of saving the franchise are low. The forward group is deadly though.

Team By Team Profitability Rankings

These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.

Betting Models Results

It was a bad week overall for my models, with scoring surging back up and favorites still getting crushed. It did boost my self-esteem to see my own results that high on the leaderboard, considering I’ve been in the bottom half most of the first 8 weeks. One of my old favorites Max Profit (aka Maximus) is now the “hottest model” in my pick graphics. Though after seeing Gladiator 2, that nickname has lost some of its nostalgic coolness. I was not entertained, nor will the movie echo in eternity. The new Maximus had no charisma and I’m not sure how he got cast in the role. That’s a better movie with the Rock…

Top Model Week 8: Division vs Division

For the first 7 weeks, my Division vs Division model (aka DvD) was among the worst, an experimental concept that sorts games into divisional match-ups, then uses a variety of input variables to bet the most probable outcomes within (like Central traveling to Metro, or Atlantic playing itself). Then out of nowhere, it has the best week of any model this season, generating more than $12,000 profit (note: I didn’t actually verify that’s the highest, I just assume it is). The best angle only had two bets, big dogs from the Central travelling to Metro, max bet on visitor -1.5 goals (both credited to the St Louis Blues). This model is a cousin of Betting Venues, who also has a very lucrative “cross-conference big dogs” angle that’s been very successful. Most models don’t differentiate cross-conference from intra-conference.

My top over/under model was the Profit Hedger. My old Goalies Last 30 Days model I tailed all week went way too heavy on the unders, as the input data was too low scoring. My new plan is basically following the top 10 model consensus, given that some big holes were patched in the mod roster, at least the few closest to relevance. A bunch of them might get downsized for simplicity during the world tournament. As most of my simplest algorithms are outperforming the complex counterparts. Things like if expected goals minus the total is greater than 1 in the 2nd quarter, then do this, but in the 3rd quarter do the opposite. Feels like there was too much splicing and cuteness in the construction process. I got too greedy.

Worst Model Week 8: NHL Last 7 Days

My NHL Last 7 Days model enjoyed a brief run as my hottest model for roughly a week, but alas hit a speed bump last in the last 7. The bulk of the losses came from favorites, but it also posted one of the biggest losses betting dogs -1.5 goals, which was a great category overall. It’s discouraging to see models struggle at something that’s otherwise on fire, but it’s live by the sword, die by the sword. Its picks were being featured in my graphics recent;y, but that’s something I’m constantly updating. Who is the best in the last 30 days? This model did receive some repairs this week, so I’m hopeful that’ll be helpful in restoring what’s ailing NHL7.

The complex version of Goalies Last 10 Games was my worst over/under model this week, but still ranks in the top 10, which is sadly a low bar to clear. This one also received some bandages on its open wounds, but does a few things very well. It may also be time to install some safety protocols limiting bet size on failing angles, but I’m hoping the maintenance performed helps boost output. The original version is still my hottest over/under model last 30 days despite the bad week, but because of that downturn, I’m not exclusively tailing the picks anymore.

Tomorrow’s Picks

WARNING: If you feel like dogs +1.5 goals are boring, you may want to follow my betting model advice more than mine…

Also, Betting Venues has two max visitor -1.5 bets on cross-conference road dogs tomorrow, Seattle and San Jose. I know a few of you will prefer that to my boring +1.5 picks…

FLA @ PIT:

After stating earlier in the report that Florida looked like the best team in the league against Carolina, I’m going to roll the dice on Panthers -1.5 goals, but only a minimum bet. Moneyline was briefly considered, but none of my models like that and I just finished writing about my big loss on big favorites moneyline. Also, Pittsburgh has won 3 in a row, hurting their draft lottery odds and providing further justification for a smaller wager.

DET @ BOS:

The Boston Bruins are 5-5 in their last 10 games and a -205 favorite against Detroit tomorrow, who are only 4 PTS back in the standings with 2 games in hand. Boston is 7-8 at home. Despite not trusting Detroit this season, I like getting them as a big dog against a mediocre opponent. I’m performing better puckline +1.5 than moneyline in the last 30 days with these teams, so that’s going to be my pick. My only reservation is Ville Husso being named starter, which might explain the line, but also why I’m going to take over 5.5 goals. Make a little back if Husso sucks.

SJ @ WSH:

The San Jose Sharks have suddenly won 3 of their last 4 games, following a 1-6 stretch. Even when slumping, 5 of their last 7 losses were only by a single goal, so they have been an excellent team on the puckline +1.5. It’s the largest position of my models with the best proficiency betting dogs, so that’s my pick too.

SEA @ CAR:

I watched Carolina’s 6-0 loss to the Panthers and it was an ugly 3rd period, coming of a 6-3 loss the game prior, also against Florida. The good news is that Pyotr Kochetkov is back from concussion protocol, which will give me the courage to take Canes moneyline. I’ll also take the over as a hedge in the event Spencer Martin gets another start.

COL @ BUF:

The Buffalo Sabres have lost 3 straight games, but frankly I don’t trust either of these teams right now. I’m just taking the home dog +1.5 goals as a default because I don’t skip games.

NYI @ MTL:

The New York Islanders have lost 7 of their last 10, Montreal only 6. I have trouble buying a team struggling that much as a -155 favorite, but also don’t trust Montreal much. I’ll take the home dog +1.5 goals because everything else feels bad.

STL @ WPG:

The Winnipeg Jets have lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last 10. St. Louis is also 4-6 last 10. This might be getting boring but I’m defaulting to the dog +1.5 goals again. My top models are divided on what bet is best.

VAN @ MIN:

Sorry folks, I know dog +1.5 is not a sexy pick. My top model largest position is the dog -1.5 in this game if you’re feeling more adventurous.

CBJ @ CGY

The Columbus Blue Jackets have won 6 of their last 8 games, following a 6-game losing streak. The Flames are currently on a 4-game losing streak of their own, but they are 9-3 at home so my fair line estimator things they should be -233 instead of -148. Blue Jackets moneyline is my largest top model position, so I’ll take a shot at the hotter hand.

EDM @ VEG

I don’t trust the Edmonton Oilers enough right now to pick them as a favorite in Vegas, but also don’t trust Vegas enough to make a larger wager. At least underdog moneyline is sexier than +1.5 goals.

Good luck!