Week 7 NHL Betting Report

Week seven of the NHL season has been logged into the history books as we say goodbye to the 1st quarter and prepare for the playoff race to be decided Thursday (more on that below). I was a Maple Leafs empty net goal away from breaking even for the week, or a Jaxson Stauber start, but instead Yotes rolled out Vejmelka on short rest. Serves me right taking the favorite -1.5 goals after repeatedly saying I’m laying off those in my picks posts after getting destroyed in the previous week. I was having a fantastic week betting over/under until overs surged back on Saturday, which is bringing back memories of an investigation last season that Saturday was the highest scoring day of the week on average. Shit happens.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

• My Weekly Profit: -$751

• My Season Profit: -$2,440 (on $100,000 wagered, so a 2.4% loss)

If you bet $100 on every over and favorite -1.5 goals this week, you lost a little under $3,000. It was a bloodbath on two very popular betting categories among pundits, so surely a few are licking their wounds right now. The advantage to my spreadsheet setup is that I always know what I’m doing wrong as soon as it happens. Remember, “an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why what he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”. I pride myself on always knowing the precise sources of my profit-loss, allowing me to pump the brakes on failing strategies, and quickly join fledgling trends (which can also just be random variance disguised as an emerging heater).

Betting Playoffs on American Thanksgiving

If you’re curious about betting on teams to make/miss playoffs, I recorded all the lines on Draft Kings the last 2 Thanksgivings. Of the last 32 playoff teams, only 6 were outside a playoff spot. On average, 3 teams in will miss, while 3 outside will qualify. Betting $100 on everyone inside to qualify and everyone outside to miss you banked $643. If your favorite team is in the playoffs right now, 80% chance they make it (that should actually be weighed by points). If they are top 16 by betting odds, then it’s 84%. Maybe you’re not guaranteed, but being even 3 PTS out right now makes the outlook bleak.

Last season, if you bet $100 on all 16 teams in a playoff spot on Yankee Turkey day to qualify in the spring, you banked $50. The biggest longshot was Nashville at +250. If you had bet the same amount on everyone outside to miss, you banked $322. The biggest longshot that missed was New Jersey at +250. Pittsburgh was +100, everyone else had a negative line. Of the 16 teams with the best odds to qualify, 13 did. The top 11 teams by implied probability all qualified. In 2022/23, betting everyone in the playoffs this time of year to qualify yielded $136 of profit (biggest payout was 3 teams at -140, zero plus money qualified). If you bet everyone outside to miss, you banked $136, but $270 of that came from the Penguins choke.

Week 7 Results

Unders went 27-13-4 this week and under 6 goals was my best bet from the last 7 days, as the league averaged 5.6 goals per game. October was 6.4, and the 2nd quarter of the previous 2 seasons was 6.2. When the total opened at 6 those years, overs went 150-131, so most of my models are cheating to over 6 goals at a time when unders are dominating. This time of year tends to be higher scoring, so models trained on history will continue getting crushed if this sustains longer-term. Fewer goals are likely driving the crash in favorites -1.5 goals, which ipso facto means dogs +1.5 goals is re-establishing itself as one of the best bets on the board (a throwback to 2019/20).

This was a huge week for dogs -1.5 goals, but only when the moneyline opened at +150 or higher. It was the longshots -1.5 that were cashing (both home and road), not the teams deemed to have a better chance of winning. Be careful not to embrace the big dog alt pucklines too much, because when those get hot, it rarely sustains beyond a couple weeks. Often, it’s just a random confluence of upsets that appears to possibly be the start of a new trend, one reason being that it only takes a small number in the +400 range to pull the entire demographic into profitability. If the slump in favorites -1.5 continues indefinitely, some of my models will get crushed. They just lost $52,500 on those this week.

*Note* “Overall Market Bets” based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

If you look at which teams were driving the dogs vs faves: Columbus, Anaheim, and Montreal were the big winners, while Florida, Edmonton, and Boston were the biggest losers. 4 of those 6 teams cracked my top 5 best/worst to bet on/against. Note Sergei Bobrovsky has an .854 SV% in the last 2 weeks. It’s encouraging to see the Blues as my number two best team betting to lose, given they occupy dead last in my profitability rankings. They just fired their coach and hired Jim Montgomery, so I picked them -1.5 goals Monday hoping for a new coach bump (which is never a sure thing and sometimes there is a delayed bump, as some coaches need a little time to find effective equilibrium).

My Team of the Week: Minnesota Wild, $544

The Minnesota Wild went 2-1 this week and I went 3-0 betting winners and losers, 1-1-1 on over/under. The game I picked them to lose was against Calgary, before learning that Kirill Kaprizov would miss the game. A little splash of good luck there, but he was skating with the top line this morning so injury appears minor. It’s worth keeping an eye on because if his scoring slows down, their unders could catch fire. They’re getting good goaltending from both guys, as Fleury’s earlier season struggles have corrected, so he’s no longer a back-up I’m targeting to bet against.

The New Jersey Devils were my second best team of the week, only playing 2 games but winning both, unders going 2-0, me going 4-0 with my Devils picks. There was recently a hiccup when the goalies were struggling, but both are above .920 save percentages in the last 2 weeks. Like Fleury, Jake Allen is not someone I’m scared of starting when betting Devils to win. New Jersey currently sits first place in the conference, but has played the most games, Carolina 1 point back with 3 games in hand. But winning 7 of their last 10 games is an excellent sign this team is once again the real deal.

My Worst Team of the Week: New York Rangers, -$500

The Rangers were my best team last week, then sunk all the way to the bottom 7 days later. My last report praised them as one of the league’s best teams, then they went on a Western road trip and went 1-2, me going 0-3. They beat the Canucks but I had the puckline, then they lost to Calgary in a close game (I also had puckline), then got crushed by Edmonton. My recent praise of Jonathan Quick’s tremendous start to the season also blew up in my face when he got the Oilers start. The next problem was they went over 6.5 twice, and I’m generally on the opposite side of that total. When the total opened at 6, that was the only game going under (and was an empty netter away from a push).

The Utah Coyotes were my second worst team of the week thanks to covering +1.5 vs Toronto on Sunday. My embargo on faves -1.5 goals was lifted because a strong chance of Jaxson Stauber starting, but alas Vejmelka got the call, so no action for Jaxson. Personally, I’d like to see the head coach fined for this atrocity. Vejmelka currently being on one of my fantasy rosters offered me no solace, as my sister had a full dollar on Leafs -1.5 goals. She did win some of that back on the under, which I was nervous betting given the likelihood of Jaxson action, but in hindsight it was a sound insurance policy if the desired goalie didn’t start.

Team By Team Profitability Rankings

These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.

Betting Models Results

If scoring does not return to the levels seen the last two seasons, several of my models will require recalibration. I get a full week off at Christmas, so that will be on the agenda. It’s pretty easy for me to verify which specific angles are bleeding the most money then altering either the selection or the size. My Small Council is emerging as the best over/under option. The “top 5 models” you see at the bottom of my pick graphics is now majority comprised of Small Council members. Those are the simple formulas, not complex models. They were very effective as a collective in the 2nd half last season (before taking a shit in the playoffs) and I’m already leaning on them for my current picks.

You’ll also see that my line movement models are now part of the tracking, but neither has the mandate of betting every game. The over/under version has been abstaining a lot lately (meaning neither side in the historical comparables was above the minimum profit threshold). The rest of my models are forced to bet every game just like me, but only make minimum bets on the least profitable angles or those with small sample sizes.

Top Model Week 7: Goalies Last 10 Games

My best model in week 1 returns to the top of the 7-day leaderboard at a time when the rest of the gang took a big loss on favorites -1.5 goals. This one was up near the top for most wagered on dogs -1.5, which many other models turn away from in the second quarter. As mentioned earlier, dog alt puckline streaks are never sustainable, though if the gap between good and bad teams narrows (aka: parity), those alts could persist longer than past observations. This GL10 model currently sits in 6th place in the full season standings and is turning a healthy profit. It doesn’t simply bet the team with the best goalie, it estimates line “value” based on projected starter and reacts. Some situations it likes value, sometimes it doesn’t. Similar to Shorting Goalies but different inputs and subroutines (S.G rarely likes positive value and sums ML and both PLs, while GL10 is only moneyline and uses a larger sample of games).

Most of you should already be aware that I’m exclusively tailing my original GL10 over/under model while this unders scourge burns. Simple concept. Calculate the expected goals to be scored in a game if either goalie starts for either team, estimate the probability of either goalie starting, and abracadabra, you have a goalie-based prediction of how many goals will be scored. Is that above or below the total? My over/under models are collectively down $67,000 this season, so there might be a major overhaul coming, if not Christmas then the world tournament.

Worst Model Week 7: Profit Hedger

The Profit Hedger was running a full season profit until getting crushed this week, sustaining a $6,000 loss betting favorites, $5,000 of that coming from puckline -1.5. That was the largest loss sustained by any model on faves -1.5 goals. It’s a close cousin of Max Profit, who strictly adheres to the ideology and makes the bet that was most profitable with these teams in the last 30 days. Profit Hedger can go either way. If you go back to my betting reports last December to January, that’s when the original Max Profit was really cooking and I was frequently tailing Maximus (who is currently 8th place in the full season standings, running a full season profit).

My worst over/under mod was Shorting Value, similar concept to its cousin who bets moneyline/puckline, but with totals. This one is much less successful and is 3rd from the bottom of my full season standings. I didn’t have an over/under version of this concept last year, so this one came out the lab untested on unplayed games. Perhaps the answer to my OU model struggles is simplification. Some of these were too cute and clearly spliced the data into too many different subroutines. Perhaps changing their behavior when the total opens at 6 or 6.5 is flawed construction.

Tomorrow’s Picks

We only have 2 games tomorrow, very light compared to most Tuesdays with the schedule getting adjusted for Thanksgiving.

UTA @ MTL:

Both these teams are 3-7 in their last 10 games, and Utah is 4-8 on the road, hence why my fair line estimator thinks Montreal should be a -150 favorite instead of a +120 dog. Habs moneyline did solicit some attention from my top models, but I’m unable to tail because Cayden Primeau is overdue for a start. That’s also why I’m picking over 6 goals despite the current unders heater. My models have the most money on Coyotes -1.5 goals, but I’m laying off faves -1.5 until there’s a recovery from that category. Give me the moneyline instead.

VAN @ BOS:

The Canucks are currently missing key players, Kevin Lankinen might be turning back into a pumpkin, and they are currently +235 to miss the playoffs (that came as a recommendation from Nizzy). They are currently 1 point back of Colorado and Edmonton with games in hand, but there’s cause for concern in Vancouver. If they can survive this, it will only make them stronger when back to full strength. All this preamble aside, Canucks are 6-4 in their last 10 while Bruins are 5-5. 80% of my model money is on Vancouver, but I’m playing super safe and taking Van +1.5. Dogs +1.5 are hot, and deserves more of my attention. I’m taking under 6 because GL10 is, my only good model right now.

Good luck!