Week 5 NHL Betting Preview
A summary of what worked and failed in week five of the last 4 seasons (last 2 for over/under).
Week Five of the NHL season is nearly upon us and my gaze is already focused on what worked best in past week fives. So let’s hop into my DeLorean to see what my Tailing History betting model (henceforth referred to as T.H) will be hammering this week. After two consecutive losing weeks, T.H made a big comeback in week four, led by a max bet on Columbus -1.5 goals vs Tampa at +300. It is once again beating me for the full season, which is once again deflating my self-esteem, rather than feeling proud of my creation’s success. It was only intended to measure historical replicability, but my decision making was supposed to be superior.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon store. My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
Adding to my inferiority complex was the introduction of a new model this week, as Dr. Frankenstein was in the lab during Halloween. What if you bet $100 on every outcome between two teams in every city dating back to October 2019. There are complicated versions of this which could estimate win probability and measure that against the line price and taking the side offering the most value. But I always start with the simplest version possible to see first if that works, and it just so happened to be a stunning success when applied to the current season.
This model could be retroactively applied to the games that have already happened, because it doesn’t use any data from this season. It doesn’t care what the lines are, who is hot, who is cold, who is injured, who played last night, all variables it completely ignores. The method is simple. Take all the games between these teams in that venue, add up the results, and bet the most profitable. Take Florida and Columbus for example who play tomorrow. Betting every home puckline -1.5 goals yielded $743. The minimum bet is $100, the max $500. Tomorrow it is putting $500 on Florida -1.5 goals. Pretend that sum was -743, it would instead bet $256 on the HML. Its 3rd choice would be $100 on H+1.5. Make sense?
My working title for this portfolio is “Betting Venues” (henceforth referred to as B.V), but that might change if something cooler crosses my inner-monologue. The bet range is the same as my own parameters and Tailing History, just so we would all be making approximately similar sized wagers. B.V will also take the average scores from those games to log an over/under wager. The total is 6.5, and their average is 6.4, so it is betting under. So yes, that’s the only information it’s using from the current season. However, it should be noted that it’s losing money on over/under picks. We’ll have to see if that trend sustains, but it might be poor at O/U selections.
This is all fake money in a spreadsheet, but we can track both portfolio’s performance as a barometer of history repeating in different ways. All this allows my to see which teams/categories are the most predictably repetitive, whenever I decide to dig deeper into historical replicability, there will be plenty to work with. I plan to make more of these hypothetical portfolios. The “Betting Travel” portfolio might have more nuance, but that one is languishing in the search for the best formula phase. Yet whenever it is born, it can be retroactively applied to games that are already completed because all its decisions aren’t affected what already happened. Dr. Frankenstein is struggling to create a consistently profitable travel-centric model. Stay tuned.
Below is the table with the full season results for my own personal portfolio, Tailing History, Betting Venues, and betting $100 on every outcome. B.V produced $9,483 profit, more than doubling me and T.H added together. Wow! Sometimes keeping it simple is the most effective option. Breaking it down by category, you can see the venue system has produced a remarkable 45% return on underdogs -1.5 goals. That’s also the category which has bestowed Tailing History with a significant lead against me for the full schedule. It’s a demographic I’m not hitting nearly often enough.
My biggest problem this season has been road dogs moneyline and home favorites -1.5 goals, but historically week five has been a good time to bet road dogs (and a terrible time to bet home favorites -1.5 goals). There is one home fave -1.5 in my picks at the bottom of the page, but that’s one that my Betting Venues model loves, so I’m going to tail. Road favorites ML and -1.5 goals have been my best category for the full season, and road faves -1.5 have produced a net profit in past week fives. There aren’t any on my ticket for Monday.
The fifth week of the previous 4 seasons (only last 2 for over/under) produced strong results for road teams. This was a good week in past seasons for me betting favorites -1.5 goals, almost entirely because of heavy favorites (at least -200 on the ML). But home favorites -1.5 was a big loser overall, with most of the damage being done in the -110 to -150 ML range. This is also a terrible week historically for underdogs -1.5 goals, so we’ll see if that trend sustains, because it’s the category most responsible for my hypothetical portfolios kicking my ass this year. Certainly T.H will be laying off, unless it’s a home dog between -109 and +120 on the moneyline. Then it’ll be making max bets -1.5 goals.
I’m not putting too much stock in the team data being presented here, it’s just here because my “preview machine” spits it out for my weekly reports about the current season and it provides some context as to what might be behind the numbers. This has been a good time to bet against Buffalo, San Jose, and Philadelphia historically, but Buffalo has improved considerably as a team. Philly might be a decent short target with injuries to Hart and Couturier, but that didn’t stop them from spanking a healthy Buffalo team Friday.
Note that the table directly above me is what’s used to derive my T.H picks. Which line range was more profitable, or lost less? If the profit/loss was less than $100, then it makes a minimum $100 bet. If it’s above $500, it makes a max $500 bet. If the profit is $159, it bets $159 (similar concept as B.V). There are 4 games scheduled for Monday and all my picks for those games are included below, in addition to what my models are choosing. T.H will be betting over 5.5 & 6 and under 6.5 & 7. It’s crushing me at over/under this season, looking at league trends instead of averaging participating teams.
TB @ TOR: Both my betting models are putting large wagers on Tampa tomorrow; T.H is going +1.5 goals and B.V is putting a max bet on -1.5 goals. Since B.V has produced a 45% return on underdogs -1.5 goals, I’m going to tail, but am going to try half a unit each on T-Bay +1.5 and -1.5. This might be my first time trying both pucklines, but I’m feeling adventurous. There is mostly unanimous agreement on under 6.5 among my team of algorithms (even the 10 game algorithm has enough data for permanent activation), although the full season counter is 11 overs and 8 unders between these two teams. Still, the recent data supports under (despite 10 goals in each of their last games).
CBJ @ FLA: My line value algorithm only thinks Florida should be a -132 favorite based on the team records, so -238 is a crazy number. But B.V understands why, as the Panthers have won 7 of their last 8 meetings versus the BJs in Florida, covering -1.5 goals in all 7 victories. So I’m going to tail with one unit on the Panthers PL. T.H is going to take the Columbus ML here, so we do not have unanimous agreement. My primary over/under algorithm wants me to bet double on under 6.5 goals, and I’m obliging. 5 of my 6 O/U algorithms also recommend the under, and both betting models are taking the under, which strengthens my confidence in that pick.
BOS @ DAL: My line value algorithm is telling me that Boston should be favored, so normally I’d be jumping on the +114 ML. The problem is the Charlie McAvoy suspension scaring me away from the Bruins. The sample size between these teams in this venue is small, but B.V has a small bet on Stars +1.5 goals and I’m going to tail, but with a full unit. My Tailing History model coincidently also loves Dallas +1.5 goals, and the two models are 24-8 this season when they have the same pick. This game should feature head-to-head Vezina candidates, but I’m taking over 5.5 because most of my algorithms/models are leaning in that direction. B.V is taking the under, while me and T.H are betting over.
EDM @ VAN: The Canucks are 8-3 and the Oilers are 2-8, yet somehow Edmonton is favored. The explanation can likely be found in B.V’s bet on the Oilers ML. They’re good in Vancouver, which obviously didn’t help them in week one. Tailing History on the other hand has a max bet on Vancouver -1.5 goals. The two models are in disagreement, but I’m fully aboard the Canucks bandwagon and will be putting a full unit on the Canucks ML -102 and a half unit on the puckline (which isn’t up yet). I want no part of the Oilers right now. Every algorithm (last 5 games, last 8, last 10) and both betting models are taking under 7 goals, and I will too (don’t worry, this shouldn’t be Jack Campbell).
Come back tomorrow for my Betting Report, where we dig deeper into what worked best in week four. Also check out my October Betting Awards, for a breakdown of the best bets from the month.