Week 3 NHL Betting Preview

A summary of what worked and failed in week three of the last 4 seasons.

Week three of the NHL season is upon us, and after an embarrassing performance in week one, I bounced back with a strong week two (many of those picks were shared in blog posts and tweets). Granted 2 games have yet to be played, but I’ll still have a healthy profit even if those bets miss (I have Boston beating Anaheim and Calgary beating Detroit on a back-to-back). My “Tailing History” portfolio (henceforth referred to as T.H) which makes bets based on historical precedence was shockingly spectacular in week one, coming back down to Earth in week two (as I predicted) but still produced a small profit.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.

If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I actually wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. It’s ostensibly a journal of my experience; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? To read more, visit the Amazon store.

My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. I wouldn’t put anything past him at this point, and I’ve got too many eggs in that basket. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

I have enough subscribers now to justify writing exclusive subscriber-only content. If you subscribe and did not receive my “thanks for subscribing” email, check your spam filter. I need to know who wants bonus fantasy content, who wants bonus betting content (mostly picks), and who wants both. Substack allows me to curate who receives the bonus material, which can’t be done for my public posts. The bonus betting content will be Monday, Wednesday, or Friday night discussing picks and betting lines for tomorrow’s slate. Max 2 per week, maybe none. We’ll see. I’ll wait a couple weeks first until there’s enough data to activate my other algorithms.

These previews are being used to guide the decision making of my “Tailing History” portfolio, which kicked my ass so badly in week one that I’m now in direct competition with my own creation, in a desperate attempt to prove that my own decision-making process is superior to a series of algorithms. I’m labelling this rivalry “me vs myself”, and it will be discussed regularly throughout the season. That might make it awkward to give out betting picks. Who should you trust? Me or myself? Even I don’t know the answer… You’ll need to rely on your own instincts to navigate these difficult waters.

The first thing that immediately jumped out up feeding the historical week three data into my “preview machine” is that unders crushed every other category. It didn’t matter if the total was 5.5, 6, 6.5, or 7, unders soundly defeated overs in every case (going 60-37-4 overall in the last 2 seasons). As a result, this week T.H will be betting under for every single game, even Carolina. I am officially employing a quasi-algorithm for over/under decisions and had a very good week. All I did was take average goals for and against for the two teams and compare it to the total, almost following the recommendation exactly. It worked.

My primary algorithm needs each team to have played 7 games before it is activated (it is average goals last 7 games minus the highest and lowest), but I’ll be using a similar formula as last week (average goals per team this season) to guide my own week three choices. When it’s close, I’ll be leaning towards the under. If you look at the table below, it shows my betting results by category next to T.H results (this does not have the 2 Sunday games). I was expecting T.H to have a bad week because it was destined to go big on underdogs -1.5 goals, which is typically a weak category (except in week two for some reason).

There was enormous risk investing $6,000 in underdogs -1.5 goals, but it walked away with $248 in profit (thanks laregely to hitting a max bet on Chicago +600 Monday). It was actually favorites -1.5 goals that did the most damage to me, but most of those games I was also laying down action on the moneyline, often more so. Favorites moneyline generated more profit for me than what was lost on their pucklines. It may not be time to pump the brakes on favorite pucklines, as heavy faves at home (at least -200 moneyline) produced a strong return -1.5 goals in past week threes.

Tailing History will not be living as dangerously as week two when it invested a substantial amount of its bankroll on longshot alt pucklines. Although, it will be throwing down some max bets on home dogs with moneylines of +170 or higher, but they’ll all be +1.5 goals. In past week threes, home teams were much more profitable than road teams, so T.H will be leaning heavily in that direction, but will be making max bets on visitor moneylines between -150 and -199. It may bet a few road dogs +1.5 goals if the moneyline is between -109 and +120.

My own historical week three data shows a clear advantage to home moneyline and unders, while my worst categories were easily road moneyline and overs. One reason to believe that history will repeat itself in regards to home-road splits is that Anaheim and San Jose will be on road trips. Chicago only plays 1 home game. It’s mostly good teams playing at home, but be weary of Washington, Montreal, and Edmonton. I’ll be surely leaning on the home side myself, maybe less so for those aforementioned 3 teams. There may not be many (if any) home longshots (maybe Chicago vs Boston and Montreal on a back-to-back vs New Jersey)

Once again you can see the fingerprints of my very lucrative shorting of the 2021/22 Arizona Coyotes. Keep in mind, the team data above that I’m posting here every week doesn’t directly inform any of my or T.H’s choices. It’s here for interest’s sake, and to show what might have driven the individual category results, but many teams are very different from 2019/20 and 2021. San Jose being a good team to bet on is surely completely irrelevant because this is a much worse team than previous seasons. It’s here because my preview machine spits it out, but it’s more relevant in my Monday reports discussing only recent data.

Note that the table directly above is what’s used to derive my T.H picks. Which line range was more profitable, or lost less? If the profit/loss was less than $100, then it makes a minimum $100 bet. If it’s above $500, it makes a max $500 bet. If the profit is $154, it bets $154. It will be going puckline -1.5 goals for all home teams favored by at least -150 on the moneyline. Also note: Minnesota overs were the best O/U wager of the last 2 seasons in week three and their overs are 4-0-1 so far this season. They just gave up 54 shots at home to a tired Columbus team.

Good luck in week three! I’ll be back tomorrow with my week two review (which will have more picks because the Tuesday games will be up by then). T.H bet $273 on Buffalo -1.5 goals at home vs Montreal on Monday. I’m also taking the Sabres, but have more on the moneyline, with just a small amount -1.5.