Saturday Betting Picks
Here are my NHL picks for Saturday November 11, 2023
These picks were sent out Friday afternoon exclusively to my subscribers who indicated their desire to receive bonus betting picks. Some of these games haven’t started if you do want to play along, but many of the lines have moved since my original valuation. If you’d like to receive more picks emails like these, subscribe and send me an email.
Here are my picks for Saturday. This did take me a couple hours and some of the lines moved in the meantime. Sorry if the prices are different, you can decide for yourself what you prefer. Do note that I now have 3 active models who are also making picks for every game. Tailing History only bets which line range produced a better result historically in this week of past seasons, doesn’t care about the teams or the current season. Betting Venues only bets historical match-ups between these teams in this city, and doesn’t care at all about the current season or the line price or back-to-backs. Then “Game Sum”, the new kid on the block, only cares about the current season. It adds up VML, V+1.5, V-1.5, HML, H+1.5, H-1.5 for say, all Columbus road games and Detroit home games, taking the one that paid out the most. The bet sizes are ranked by stars. 1 is minimum, 5 is maximum. I’m now up to 8 over/under algorithms, which is my “advisory team” or “Jedi Council” or something. We’ll see. The primary algorithm is the one I tail the most, and I might start calling it “OU Prime”. I only overruled 2 of its Saturday picks.
I’m also using 2 “line value” algorithms, one that uses venue records (but the sample size is small so it’s a little wonky right now) while the other uses all the games and doesn’t care about home-road splits. Both are flawed, but better than nothing. I’m including picks for every single game, but none of you should be betting all these. Just read through and decide which you like the best. If the line has since moved to far and you don’t like the value, then pass.
CBJ @ DET:
My “fair line estimator” says Detroit should be -160 and not -198, so I’m just putting a minimum bet on the BJs +164 for line value reasons. The majority of my over/under algorithms like under 6.5 goals, so that’s my pick as well.
DAL @ WPG:
Tailing History is going all in on the Jets puckline, but I’m staying away from -1.5 against Oettinger. Since Betting Venues does like the Jets ML too, I’m going minimum bet on Jets to win. The fair line estimators think Jets should be between -130 and -160 on the moneyline, so I like getting +105. My O/U algorithms are unanimously voting 8-0 on over 5.5 goals, so I’ll be betting double on that. But be warned, this should be Oettinger vs Hellebuyck (who has been leaking lately).
VAN @ TOR:
I love the Canucks ML at +114, especially with the Leafs on a back-to-back. Also, Game Sum loves Canucks -1.5 because this has been a good year so far to bet road dogs -1.5 goals in Toronto. Will that sustain long-term, who knows. But I’m on a nice run betting this Vancouver team and am not about to stop. I’m also taking over 6.5 despite 6 of 8 algorithms liking the under. Leafs are trending up in goals per game, especially against.
BOS @ MTL:
McAvoy is back and the Bruins were fine without him. My confidence level in Montreal is low lately. I considered putting some of this on the ML, but ultimately decided the Bruins are a vastly superior team to what I’ve seen from Montreal the last week. Going “all in” -1.5 goals at +110.
CGY @ OTT:
Realistically Ottawa should be more like -116, but that’s not factoring in the back-to-back. All of my betting models absolutely love Ottawa here, and my O/U algorithms voted 6-2 in favor of the over. I’m going 2/3 ML at -142 and 1/3 PL -1.5 goals at +170. Thought it should be noted the Senators have not been reliable lately. That’s why I’m not going all in. Dustin Wolf probably starting for Calgary and he might be good.
CAR @ TB:
If you’re telling me I can get Tampa as a home dog -105 vs a team on a back-to-back, I’ll take that all day long. But they are leaky lately, so I’m only going in for a small amount.
WSH @ NYI:
This is a tough one. Both my line value algorithms think Washington should be favored, but they don’t adjust price for back-to-backs. Still, Betting Venues is making a big bet on the Washington ML, and Game Sum is equally excited about Washington +1.5 goals. The Isles price of -185 is a little bananas and would make no sense if not for the back-to-back. It’s normally my policy to short back-to-backs, but the price is too expensive. I’ll put a minimum bet on Caps ML +154 but don’t love it. My over/under algorithms are voting 7-1 for under 6 goals, so that’s my pick as well.
BUF @ PIT:
I’m putting a small bet on Sabres ML despite the back-to-back. The Sabres have killed me when I’ve bet against them on short rest, and if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. But I’ve also been so spectacularly wrong with my Sabres picks this season that it’s probably smart to bet Pittsburgh here….
ARI @ NSH:
My initial reaction was that +130 for Arizona against Nashville is good value because I’m not sure Preds are any good. Betting Venues does like Yotes -1.5 goals, and it’s been doing well on underdog alt pucklines -1.5 this season. All that being said, Nashville is 3-2 at home and Arizona is 2-5 on the road. By that (small sample) math, Preds should be -200, not -155. Yotes have only covered -1.5 in 1 of 7 road games. I’ll put a minimum bet on Yotes ML +130. Nashville is also returning from a long road trip, where some teams struggle. I’m betting double on over 6 goals because my algorithms voted 7-1. OU Prime loves it.
STL @ COL:
At first glance -250 for Colorado ML felt expensive, but looking closer, Avs are 4-1 at home and Blues are 1-4 on the road. That math would call for a -400 ML, albeit small sample size. Betting Venues likes Colorado -1.5 goals, and Game Sum loves Colorado -1.5. I’m going to take the Avs -1.5 goals at -105, but not for my max amount. The line value estimator thinks there’s a 70% chance that covers (which would be -233). My algorithms voted 6-2 for over 6 goals, so that’s my pick.
EDM @ SEA:
The line value estimator thinks Kraken should be -175 on the ML and -125 on the PL -1.5. The moneylines opened at -110 each. I’m going big on Kraken, splitting my investment 50:50 between ML and PL -1.5. Betting Venues is going big on Edmonton -1.5 goals, but has no idea what the current state of the team is, nor does it care. My OU algorithms voted 7-1 on over 6.5, so that’s my pick.
PHI @ LA:
My confidence in Philly is shaken following their loss to San Jose, they’re on a back-to-back, the Kings look incredible, and my initial instinct was to go all in puckline. However, Ersson is starting tonight, so it should be Carter Hart tomorrow. The line value estimator only thinks the LA ML should be -142, the one that ignores home-road splits says -160, and it’s -238. That’s pricey. I think it’s getting crowded on the Kings bandwagon so the books will make you pay extra to ride this wagon. All that said, I’ll pay to ride because of the back-to-back, but I’m not going all in. There’s serious division among the O/U algorithms, so I’m not giving a pick except to say, longer term liked over, shorter term liked under.