Another opening round of the NHL playoffs (henceforth referred to as R1) has been logged into the annals of history, some series exciting, others boring eventless hockey. My final result (not including series bets) was an $824 loss with $1,046 of that coming from the Nashville-Vancouver series. Burning too much money on the Predators and overs after the Canucks were down to their 2nd then 3rd string goalies. Given the circumstances, that’s a defensible mistake, leaving me with little retrospective regret. Once the dust settled, and the final R1 game wrapped, teams favored on the series betting line went 8-0. Anyone who parlayed all 8 favorites cashed a 34 to 1 ticket.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
Had I bet $100 on all 8 of my series wagers, that would have resulted in a $45 loss (because Tampa was my bet, Florida was my pick). Favorites went 8-0, and my 2 underdogs picks were in the #2 vs #7 match-up, where historically there tends to be more upsets (though not in recent years). I went 1 for 8 on my “series correct score” picks, only hitting the Rangers sweep. Had I bet $100 on all of those picks, that would have resulted in a $300 loss (but would have been a net gain if Toronto won game 7). So, technically the previously reported $824 loss is actually $1,170 when factoring series wagers. Had Toronto won game 7, that only would have been a $96 loss. Yet, as a Leafs hater, I’m plenty satisfied with the end result.
Had Nashville and Toronto won in 7 games, my R1 performance would have been outstanding because my bracket would have gone 8-0. When the Dallas Stars fell down 0-2 against Vegas, it was especially disturbing for me having picked them to win the Cup in my bracket, leading me to despair about looking like an idiot for filling out a terrible bracket (which I pinned to my profile before playoffs, which included a 53 to 1 parlay on my bracket picks), even joking about hiring an internet services company to scrub any evidence of that bracket from the web. Home teams went 7-1 in game ones, after going 2-6 last year, which led me to picking too many road teams in those matches.
Fast forward to Friday when my bracket was 5-0, the Leafs pushed Boston to 7 games, Dallas had Vegas on the brink, and the biggest hurdle remaining was needing a pair of wins from Nashville (when they were +270 on the series line). If you had parlayed my remaining series picks before Friday’s games, the parlay combined to +905, which is the area code for Toronto. This felt like a sign from the hockey gods that my 53 to 1 parlay (requiring a Leafs win) was destined to cash. That Canucks-Predators game 6 was 0-0 until Vancouver scored with 1:39 left in the 3rd period to kill my parlay and series bets. Had that aforementioned destiny been properly manifested, my playoff parlays would have collectively produced a giant profit.
In defense of my 2 incorrect series picks, all 8 picks were included in 3 polls to determine my “best R1 series pick”, 2 semi-finals and a championship. Toronto finished first, Nashville 4th. Had you bet $10 on all 29 of my playoff parlays, you lost $136. Sorry about that, but my explanation is degree of difficulty picking winners in playoffs might result in sub-optimal conditions to make parlays, especially considering most of my winning parlays from the regular season included at least one, often two heavy favorites beating a bad team. There are no bad teams in playoffs (Washington notwithstanding).
Round One Results
The worst category overall was underdogs -1.5 goals, which was no surprise because that was not a good wager in previous round ones either. Granted, some of my regular season models aren’t programmed to know that, and the 12% they collectively bet on that category was a big loser. The second worst category (which did have some overlap with the first) was home -1.5 goals, which collectively cost my models $13,500. Specifically mild favorites (-110 to -150 ML) went from an awesome bet in previous playoffs to a terrible bet this year. That completely flipped. While road mild favorites -1.5 goals was the best performer and a net loser in the 3 previous playoffs.
As you might recall, my betting models started hot because home -1.5 goals started hot. Had you bet $100 on H-1.5 in the 8 opening games, you banked $445. Had you bet the same amount on all the remaining H-1.5, you lost $1,800. That’s what wrecked my previously strong Shorting Value, Tailing History, and Max Profit models, who were all demoted to the bench a week into playoffs. Betting Venues and Game Sum were suddenly the best models, rising to prominence in my pick graphics (top 5 models was regularly re-shuffled). I’m continuing to monitor which bench warmers earn re-instatement, and which starters deserve a seat on the bench.
Looking even deeper into the numbers, it was 2022 specifically with the biggest boom in H-1.5 (betting $100 each yielded $2,500 profit). That’s coming out of the pandemic, when Covid protocols were dropped and we were back to full attendance in all buildings. It makes logical sense why year precisely saw a boom in home output. In retrospect, that data was misleading to my models, so this summer when I’m doing a full diagnostic and recalibration of each model (and creating a few new ones), I’ll be specifically ensuring each “vector/angle” was profitable in the 2 most recent seasons (including playoffs) which were completely free of Covid protocols and restrictions. 2021 was an even bigger cluster f**k than 2022. I’d almost prefer throwing all that data out entirely.
My model round one performance (and upgrades made in preparation for round two) were discussed more in my Round Two Preview. So, I’m not going to dwell further on their performance here. Instead, we’ll transition into team-by-team and series-by-series results. Looking at the leaderboard below is a little depressing, as there were only 3 teams I managed a profit betting them to win/cover; Avalanche, Rangers, and a tiny amount on Florida. I went 1-5 picking ML/PL in Vancouver vs Nashville, 2-4 on their over/under.
Round One Series
New York Rangers defeat Washington Capitals
The first series finished was also my first (and only) “series correct score” of the playoffs, picking Rangers 4 games to 0. Washington didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs, and my plan to bet 4-0 for #1 vs #8 was decided well before the match-up was determined. That was a “turtle race” and turtles never win in playoffs (I’m saying that as a blind generalization with no supporting evidence (but we’re speaking in metaphors here, which does not demand evidentiary support (at least I hope not))). Rangers were heavily favored in all 4 games, so the return on the 4-0 moneylines were smaller than the 3-1 pucklines. The one game where they missed the puckline was the only time I bet -1.5.
The over/under was a much tougher beast to tame, leading to a $400 loss that cancelled out my series correct score. My picks went 0-4 (2 unders, 2 overs, all minimum wagers) but two of my picks were in defiance of my Small Council recommendation, who went 2-2. The good news, I’m 1-0 on overs in the Rangers-Hurricanes series, and hope that trend continues. All revenue sources included; this was my 2nd best series with $192 profit. I’m not feeling good about my Hurricanes series pick in round two after watching the first game. My only hope is that they figure out the penalty kill and refs stop calling so many penalties as we get closer to elimination games (pause to write “check average goals by game of series to my “to do” list later today).
Carolina Hurricanes defeat New York Islanders
The New York Islanders were the only “turtle race” contestant who actually got hot the last 2 weeks (FYI: I define the term “turtle race” metaphorically as two turtles running at top speed, not a race to “turtle” into their shells (just wanted to clear any hypothetical confusion)) and earned a spot in the dance. Enough so that I actually considered betting them in game one (despite Canes already being my series pick) solely on the basis of “line value” (which I’ve learned this season might actually be a bad thing). They played well enough in game one that they were my pick +1.5 goals in game two, which only missed because Carolina scored 4 unanswered goals in the 3rd period. Canes were my pick for the rest.
My biggest regret was picking Canes in 6 games, but we might have got there had it not been for that highly improbable choke job, and hitting Canes in 6 (plus Isles +1.5 game two) would have made this a profitable series for me. I turned out to be a net loser betting Carolina to win/cover because my single largest wager was the game NYI won, and the Canes were giant favorites in most of the others. The winnings from my two successful Canes ML bets was not enough to overcome the one loser. This was my 3rd worst series for over/under. Unders went 3-2 and I picked 4 unders in the series, just the wrong ones (also going 0-1 on overs). I have Canes going to the Cup final, and as previously mentioned, I’m concerned after game one.
Colorado Avalanche defeat Winnipeg Jets
My best series of the first round (by a wide margin) was the Avalanche winning 4-straight to beat the Winnipeg Jets in 5 games. Colorado -135 was my series pick, but in 7 games given Colorado’s struggles to close the season, most especially by their goalie Alexandar Georgiev (who was terrible in game one, but got the start in game two because the back-up was sick). That actually proved a stroke of good luck for the Avs, as Georgiev bounced back and helped them secure the victory. Though had Annunen started and won game two, Avs likely win the next 3 because they completely overmatched Winnipeg. My pick was Avs moneyline and the over in all 5, leading to a fantastic return (yet, produced some sadness because I wanted Jets to win).
Some people have blamed Hellebuyck for the loss, but having watched most of those games, it felt like no goalie in the world could have turned that series in Winnipeg’s favor. Sending hookers and blow to Valeri Nichushkin’s hotel room might have been the only way Winnipeg wins the series. Jets had no answer for the relentless attack. A majority of my series profit came from overs, starting with a max bet in game one. Most of you are surely aware, I was on Winnipeg overs weeks ago, Avs too. That bandwagon got crowded after 13 goals in the opening match, but we were on board early.
For those of you arguing this loss proved the Jets were frauds all along (as discussed on Chiclets) let’s wait and see how the Dallas series plays out before you invest too much emotional capital in that argument. If Colorado trucks them too (which I’m hoping doesn’t happen because Stars in 7 is my pick), then maybe there was nothing Jets could have done. Don’t feel bad Jets fans, this year turned out to be way more interesting than anyone predicted, and hopefully a few more of you bought season tickets for 2024/25.
Florida Panthers defeat Tampa Bay Lightning
Here we get into the fine print of that aforementioned 53 to 1 parlay. My “series bet” was Tampa at +150, but even money would have taken Florida (where it bears repeating, value isn’t always good, in fact it might be bad more often than not (NOTE TO SELF)). So, when giving out my series picks parlay, Florida was in the official 53 to 1 bracket parlay, but a second option with Tampa at 83 to 1 was also included in the Tweet (and preview). Tampa was just a better team than Florida for the final 20 games of the season, which seduced me on the line value, but could not take Tampa in the bracket because there’s no +150 bonus for taking on added risk.
That aforementioned perceived value and the possibility of the Kucherov-Vasilevskiy tandem catching fire at any moment convinced me to pick Tampa in all of the first 3 games, all of them losses. That’s when the law of “3 strikes and you’re out” was triggered, flipping my pick to Florida for the remaining 2 games. It was too little, too late, as this was my second worst series. I’m hitching my support to Florida in the next round, picking them to beat Boston in 5. As noted in my R2 Preview, in the previous 2 playoffs, Florida 2nd round unders went 9-0. My Small Council pushed for a max bet on under 5.5 in game one, a game that will start within 30 minutes of this getting posted.
Edmonton Oilers defeat Los Angeles Kings
For the third straight season, the Edmonton Oilers knocked the LA Kings out of the playoffs opening round, each year requiring fewer games than the last. The Kings made a giant splash last off-season getting Pierre-Luc Dubois, a big, strong, center giving them enviable depth down the middle. Well, it didn’t work out and PLD just finished in my top 5 most overpaid players. That addition did not improve their playoff outcome and perhaps they should have targeted Connor Hellebuyck instead (if he was even available). Oilers in 6 was my series pick, so a little more pushback would have been appreciated. Yet I did finish with $62 profit in this series thanks to over/under. Overs started the series hot, but scoring declined.
I’ll be cheering for the winner of the next round series against Vancouver to win the Stanley Cup and believe Edmonton gives Canada the better chance of ending the drought. It would be more fun for me personally if Vancouver moves on given that I live here, but now that the Leafs are eliminated, I can safely cheer for Canada. I’m very skeptical that the Canucks goaltending can sustain previous effectiveness against the offensive onslaught they’re about to endure. Granted, all that talk about getting past the next round will be much easier said than done, as the winner will be challenged with a mighty offensive blitzkrieg coming right back at them. My bracket has Dallas beating Edmonton, and if that’s the next series, I’m sticking to it.
Vancouver Canucks defeat Nashville Predators
The Vancouver Canucks would have been my pick the defeat the Nashville Predators had Thatcher Demko played more games leading up to playoffs. Concern about insufficient warm-up games was provided in my pick justification, but as it turned out, additional injury should have been the bigger worry, as Demko was lost early in the series. That’s when I doubled down on Nashville. Then the back-up was injured too, so I tripled down, and Silovs was the hero. This was my worst series by a wide margin, losing more than $1,000. Adding insult to injury was my belief that those goalie maladies would help the overs, which they most certainly did not.
Of all my 14 picks, 3 were winners, going 3-11. Getting crushed in every direction. As a Vancouver resident who watched nearly all of their games this season, it feels like negligence on my part to be this miserably wrong on the team I see the most. But what I saw was a goalie who played like garbage in the 4th quarter, replaced with the 3rd stringer, Quinn Hughes was taking punishment with frequent close-ups on his face wincing in pain. Pettersson was struggling. There were plenty of visual indicators that this outcome was trending in a completely different direction after game two. They overcame all those obstacles, and I’m happy we’re guaranteed a Canadian team in the final 4. I stated in my preview that I was cheering for Vancouver to win but was nervous about Demko.
Dallas Stars defeat Vegas Golden Knights
As previously mentioned, the Dallas Stars are my bracket Cup pick, but gave me an awful scare dropping the first two games at home. On the road in game 3, they beat Vegas 27-4 in high dangers scoring chances. The negative impact on my self-esteem for doubting the defending champ was undone by that game three dominance. It made me feel smart again. Once I jumped on the unders and those caught fire, that alone was enough to finish with a $26 profit on the series. Part of that self-destructive introspection after game two was examining my own desire for Vegas to lose, for the same reason I was cheering for them to miss the playoffs; to be a negative data point for stashing stars on LTIR to load up extra talent.
I’m not accusing anyone of malfeasance. But as I Tweeted after the game: “even in the worse case scenario where a team is allegedly lying about injury severity to a star player in order to put them on LTIR and trade for excess stars circumventing the salary cap; you risk missing the playoffs entirely, or finishing 8th and facing the top seed.” That was the memo I wanted spread around the league. Shenanigans can potentially expose you to a juggernaut in round one, and Dallas is legit. They are my pick in the next round (in 7 games at +420), but Colorado might be an even mightier beast. I may just bet the home team every game, and fortunately for the Stars, they’re guaranteed a maximum of 3 in Denver.
Boston Bruins defeat Toronto Maple Leafs
Last, but certainly not the least, Boston vs Toronto. I think the Propellerheads said it best “the word is about, there's something evolving, whatever may come, the world keeps revolving. They say the next big thing is here, that the revolution's near, but to me it seems quite clear. That's it's all just a little bit of history repeating” (that song is on my model-building music playlist). Despite all the other ways history failed to repeat in round one, the reliability of a Toronto 1st round exit proved true to form. That game 7 lost me 3 wagers; Leafs to win the series +105, Leafs in 7 +520, and Leafs ML +124. Yet had those picks hit, this review would have taken on a more somber tone. If you read my R2 Preview, you know why.
My social media bio explicitly states “Red Wings fan, Leafs hater” because those are the two teams where I’m most vulnerable to bias clouding my outlook (but both for the opposite reason you might expect (biggest losses coming on Detroit to lose and Toronto to win)). That can’t be stated often enough, and has been disclaimed dozens of times on this blog. I could be over 100 career Wing/Leaf disclaimers by now, their frequency increased exponentially once I was regularly giving betting picks for every game tomorrow. I may have finished this series down $420, but if Toronto does the implausible and hangs on to that late 3rd period lead, this would have been my second best series.
“The newspapers shout a new style is growing, but it don't know if it's coming or going. There is fashion, there is fad. Some is good, some is bad, and the joke rather sad. That it's all just a little bit of History repeating…”
Ain’t that the truth… (newspapers notwithstanding)
Upcoming Bets
All my picks for upcoming games were already shared on Twitter (or here in my preview), but I’ll include those again here for anyone who missed. Followed by my pick from yesterday’s preview if you missed that (since Edmonton-Vancouver got moved from Sunday to Tuesday).
Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks
Series bet: Edmonton -260
Exact bet: Edmonton in 5 games +350
The Edmonton Oilers are a giant -260 favorite to defeat the Vancouver Canucks despite being the lower seed starting on the road. Full marks to Vancouver for hanging on to beat Nashville with their 3rd string goalie, killing my 53 to 1 series parlay. If Thatcher Demko was healthy and playing at a Vezina level, maybe the Canucks would entice me to pick them as a series dog (5 PTS better in the regular season), but he’s not. There was no deliberation when logging my picks for this series which team would be me choice, but picking the number of games did cause pause. I settled on Oilers in 5 at +350 but was tempted by the juice on +500 for a sweep. Oilers in 6 was +300, so I went with 5 to get the extra +50.
That entire opening paragraph was written within 30 minutes of the Canucks defeating Nashville before even running any numbers are checking with my models about game one (pause writing to actually consult models). Okay cool, my models have 2/3 of their money on Edmonton and my top 5 models have 10 times more on that pick than Vancouver. They opened at -142 and that has moved to -135, so it looks like public money is coming in on Vancouver. For me the goaltending situation is still too risky against that mighty offense, but the defensive shell Tocchet has setup to protect the net is convincing enough that I’m laying off the puckline (likely for the whole series unless this goes off the rails). That might be hypocritical given that I’m taking over 6 goals, but let’s see how the rock-paper-scissors of it all plays out.