NHL Playoff Bets Tuesday April 30

Welcome to another picks post that will be featuring a set of parlay options, thanks to the Islanders and Tampa extending their series Saturday. Otherwise, there likely wouldn’t be another 4-game night, my minimum requirement by current parlay parameters. The hockey gods wanted more parlays, which was actually bad news for me having picked Carolina and Florida (the law of “3 strikes and you’re out” failed me), but I’m happy just having more games on television. My historical database has a small sample size problem with playoff games, which means the longer these series go on average, the more that’s added to the sample that will guide my recommendations next spring. It’s the circle of life (that might be an incorrect usage of that expression, but it sounded smart in my brain).

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.

There have been a few noteworthy recent developments on the model front. First, my old friend Betting Venues is back in the pole position sharing picks underneath mine in graphics. That’s now my top performing playoff model. Evidently past performance in a specific building between these two teams has become really important again. On the flip side, two of my best performing 4th quarter models were dropped out of the top 10 (Shorting Value (who has lost $3,000 on home favorites -1.5 goals) and Tailing History (same problem H-1.5)), meaning their picks are no longer being shared in graphics. The Orthodox Zig Zag was dropped from the playoff model aggregator, while Macro Daddy was reinstated after going 7-2 after I fixed a big mistake in its programming (that also impacted Value Voodoo (who used the same 5v5 expected goals stat) and that model was also reinstated after a sudden turn-around).

Tuesday should be the last 4-game night, so aside from my round two preview, this should be the last set of parlays shared. That’s fine, we still haven’t hit any in the playoffs, so I doubt many of you are even tailing at this point. At least I’ve been saying for the last few attempts that these are not working out well post-season, so everyone was warned. My picks for Monday night (shared on social media Sunday) are Dallas and Florida, but I’m 0-7 picking winners in those series, so you may want to bet Vegas and Tampa instead. The only reason I even shared those picks is because I promised sharing my choices (models included) for every playoff game. The Tweets included mention of my futility with these series for people to possibly fade my picks.

Road teams started the playoffs going 1-7 in game ones, but surged back in the week that followed. I’m picking 3 road teams on Tuesday, so let’s hope that momentum sustains.

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

The Colorado took a commanding 3-1 lead in their series against Winnipeg, as the Jets return home fighting to stay alive as a +100 underdog. Aside from the fact that I’m cheering for Winnipeg to win the series, I also have Colorado winning in 7 games at +500, but having watched the last three matches, that feels entirely unlikely (you can still bet Colorado to win in 7 at +750, meaning roughly an 11% chance). Jets to win the series is also +750 (which I suppose means they think if it goes 7 games, then Jets are 50/50 on home ice). While 58% of my model money is on Winnipeg (mostly moneyline), I have to continue riding Colorado, who has been my best team to bet in the playoffs thus far.

Unless someone in Winnipeg sends a kilo of blow and Russian prostitutes to Nichushkin’s hotel room tonight, this feels like it’s going to be done in five. Last game was the first missed over, falling half a goal short. The total is once again set at 6.5 with both my Small Council and best performing models strongly on the over. The playoff models give the under a slight edge, but weak confidence. That’s not discouraging me from putting a max bet on over 6.5.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

William Nylander finally returned to the Leafs line-up lighting a fire that carried the team to victory but that was not enough to overcome Swayman the Leaf slayer as the Bruins took a 3-1 series lead, now -1200 to advance. Arguments between players broke out on the Leafs bench, “trade Marner” is regularly trending on Twitter, as the Toronto outlook has drifted into darkness. Leaf nation is melting down at another potential first round defeat, and I’m now 1-3 picking them to win in this series, requiring a shift in my strategy. 58% of my model is on Toronto, with Betting Venues making a minimum bet +1.5 goals. Yes, Leaf record in Boston is bad, but version 2 of this model uses expected GF%, meaning goalies are ignored. Although this specific set of circumstances historically only solicited a minimum bet +1.5 goals, meaning that angle was only minimally profitable (or possibly a net loser).

The downside of expected goals is that it ignores goalies and Swayman is dominating the series, but I’m still going to tail Leafs +1.5 at -218 (which has moved to -198) mostly because they are my pick to advance to the conference final. Granted, looking deeper into the numbers, Toronto expected goals in Boston is better historically than recently. When you include special teams (where the Leafs have sucked), Toronto fared much worse than if you’re only using 5v5 data. There’s the downside in using 5v5 as a predictor, turns out special teams are vital to success, so ignoring them completely is potentially flawed. But hey, all my Leaf picks are “potentially flawed”.

Note: All this was compiled and written before finding out Auston Matthews might not play, but I don’t want to re-do this entire analysis. Bet the Bruins. I’m not changing my Leaf pick, but will be taking under 6 goals (against model recommendations).

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

The New York Islanders stayed alive with an overtime win on home ice, pushing the series to game five (much to my disappointment with a large wager on Canes moneyline). My top models strongly favor the Hurricanes at home with 54% on the moneyline, including a max wager by Betting Venues who loves their home ice advantage against the Islanders specifically. Aside from a single Isles +1.5 pick, I’ve been riding Carolina all series and do not see any reason to stop now. The playoff models have a little more love for New York, but mostly because my probability calculator identified low seeds down 1-3 in game 5 of round 1 as having a better chance of winning. That’s not enough for me to tail. I’m also taking under 5.5 goals, but my playoff models disagreed (albeit with weak confidence). I do have Canes in 6 games at +350, so won’t be heartbroken if they lose here.

Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks were down to their 3rd string goalie last game, but Arturs Silovs was up to the challenge. They very nearly lost the game but tied it up in the dying seconds. Yes, that killed my Predators moneyline bet, but cashed the over, so the game was revenue-neutral for me. Vancouver is now up 3-1 and -900 to win the series. Predators might have been favored to win the series if that goal never happens, but now we’ll never know. The Canucks are a -120 favorite to win this game, despite the goaltending situation, a price I’m unwilling to pay on a 3rd stringer (good performance last game or not), and will put a minimum wager on the Preds ML.

The Predators to win the series in 7 games is my pick at +590 (which is now +600, the same as their series line given 7 is the only possible permutation). None of my top models are taking Vancouver, and my playoff models strongly prefer Nashville. That does boost my confidence in that Preds pick. There was also strong support for over 5.5 among my models despite only 2 of 4 games in the series exceeding that total. What I like about this bet is the Canucks goalie situation, but I’m still going to lower my bet size down from maximum.

Parlay Combinations

There are a two options for you here, and we were an Oilers empty net goal away from hitting the previous 3-leg parlay. There should be a couple parlays in my round two preview, but this should be the last set for the opening round.

Betting Venues

Carolina ML, Colorado -1.5 PL, Nashville +1.5 PL, which currently parlay to +478. Add Toronto +1.5 PL for +769.

My picks

Carolina ML, Colorado ML, Nashville ML, which currently parlay to +400. Add Toronto +1.5 PL for +653 or Boston ML for +709.

My top 3 picks are the same as the top model positions, which are currently competing in a Twitter poll. If you click on the image, it should take you directly to the poll. The poll has Boston instead of Toronto.