NHL Bets, Tuesday Nov 12
Happy Veterans/Remembrance Day to any of my readers who served in the military, the good news being the threat of America descending into a post-election civil war looks to have been avoided. My day was spent at work, with these picks made in the morning, posted later in the evening. That means there won’t be quite as much writing, but with fewer games than an average Tuesday, posting all these picks required less time. If you’d like to know how my picks are faring, check out my Betting Report from Sunday, breaking down the most effective strategies and recapping results for the week that was.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting almost all of these with bet sizes ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.
Sorry folks, I am a human being who makes mistakes. I probably make less of them than Chat GPT, but they do still happen from time to time.
BOS @ STL:
The Boston Bruins are 2-5 on the road while St. Louis is 4-4 at home, yet Bruins are a -155 favorite. Blues are dead last in my profitability rankings, which would be a larger concern if Boston was not 5th. My largest model position is Bruins -1.5 goals, with my top models investing 74% of their maximum on that outcome. While I’m fairing well picking Boston outcomes, V-1.5 in their road games has produced a large loss (especially when combined with Blues home games). Yet my models are turning a profit with that pick, so I’ll trust them to guide me here. My over/under models strongly prefer over 6, but are not faring well betting these teams when the total opens at 6 in the last 30 days.
CGY @ VAN:
The Calgary Flames visit Vancouver tomorrow after hosting LA tonight, otherwise they would likely be my pick for this match. The Canucks have struggled on home ice, going 1-5 while Flames are 3-5 on the road. That’s why my fair line estimator thinks Van should be a +153 dog instead of a -218 favorite. However, as you may be aware, some of my best models love negative value, paying expensive prices for lines. Shorting Value doesn’t need to know the hottest new angles to work because oddsmakers already do that. They price those scorching angles into the line cost, so when a line is ridiculously priced, Shorty assumes there’s a good reason. 73% of all model money is on Vancouver, so that will be my pick, I just haven’t bet a visitor -1.5 goals in their home games or Calgary road games in the last 30 days. My models have and are getting destroyed. They are doing well betting unders with these teams when the total opens at 6.5, so that’ll be my pick as well, soliciting nearly 70% of total model money.
CBJ @ SEA:
My betting models have 78% of their money on the Columbus Blue Jackets in Seattle tomorrow, but they are all performing terribly betting visitors in Seattle home and Columbus road games this season. Blue Jackets are 1-6 on the road while Kraken are 3-4 at home, which would put the expected home moneyline at -180. It opened at -185. Dogs +1.5 goals might have been among my worst categories last week, but with 3 of my top 5 models all making the same V+1.5 pick, I’ll tail with a minimum bet, albeit with low confidence backing it up. There is more sureness in over 6 goals given that 90% of my model money is invested in that outcome.
NJ @ FLA:
The Florida Panthers have won 8 of their last 10 games, while the visiting Devils are 5-5. Betting against the Panthers is a frightening proposition, but my models feel no fear and have 75% of their money on New Jersey, mostly because they love road teams in the first quarter. The largest position is Devils moneyline at +124 (which has not moved since opening). Both my models and I are turning profit betting VMLs in Jersey road games, yet I’m only making a minimum bet chasing plus money. I feel better about over 6 goals, but see that total has moved to 6.5, which I would bet under.
NYI @ EDM:
My belief is that the Oilers are ready to catch fire after playing well without McDavid, but I’m only going to make a minimum bet on Oilers -1.5 goals because my best models really like that Islanders moneyline. Losing Barzal has not hurt their offense as much as I anticipated. Sorokin is a wildcard, but his SV% is down to .902 in his last 5 games. This morning, I really liked under 6.5 but see that line has moved to 6. I would not bet under 6.
OTT @ TOR:
The Battle of Ontario happens tomorrow, possibly without Auston Matthews in the line-up (which hasn’t hurt Toronto yet). I’m still not convinced Ottawa is good, but they have beat some good teams and have the ability to punch above their weight in what’s been a difficult schedule to start the year. My models largest position is Leafs -1.5 goals, but more total money on the road dog. My top models like Sens +1.5, so that’s going to be pick. Granted, they are not performing well on that bet with these teams in the last 30 days, but I’m always cheering for Ottawa to beat Toronto, so maybe this is just my anti-Leaf bias guiding my choice.
WPG @ NYR:
A 14-1 team is an underdog against a 9-4 team, which means my fair line estimator thinks Jets should be a -250 favorite. That’s also why some of my models are taking the Rangers, those angles hunting for negative value. The Rangers may also just be a better team, soliciting 58% of my model money. Top position is a tie between Rangers ML and Jets -1.5. Instead of paying -142 on a team facing a 14-1 opponent, I’ll put a minimum bet on the Winnipeg alt puckline -1.5 goals to gamble for a big payout.
Good luck!