NHL Bets, Thursday Nov 21
Welcome to another picks post and it saddens me to report bad performance the last 2 days to end the first quarter. Over/under picks have produced a net profit, I just got hammered by favorites with underdogs having a big week. My picks for today were all shared on social media and there was an obvious shift in my model bets away from road dogs -1.5 goals in just night 1 of Q2. If you bet $100 on every road dog -1.5 goals on Monday-Tuesday, you banked a shade under $1,000. You have been warned that I may officially be on a cold streak.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister has begun betting hockey based on my advice and I’ll be sharing all those picks with you.
To review my Wednesday bets
Tomorrow
VEG @ OTT:
The Vegas Golden Knights play Toronto tonight and Ottawa tomorrow, so of course my models like Ottawa vs the back-to-back. Their goaltending is once again concerning, with Linus Ullmark sporting an .871 SV% in the last 2 weeks, Forsberg .882. The good news is Vegas goalies haven’t been much better, with Ilya Samsonov the likely starter tomorrow sporting an .875 SV% in his last 4 games. I’m not taking the largest model position at -1.5 goals, instead putting a minimum bet on the moneyline at -120. I’m also taking under 6.5, but that’s a risky bet given the porous goaltending. I’m just hoping the league trend towards unders sustains (Monday-Tuesday was an even split).
UTA @ BOS:
The Boston Bruins have lost 4 of their last 5 games and Jeremy Swayman has an .875 SV% in his last 10 GP. If you’re going to bet Boston, you almost want Korpisalo. On the Utah side, we should see Karel Vejmelka tomorrow with a .917 SV% in his last 6 games. That’s why I’m taking Utah moneyline at +136. My models were very strongly on over 6 goals, but I opted for the under because in the last 30 days unders are 47-43-19 when the total opens at 6. Overs are making me nervous given the last week of results.
CBJ @ TB:
Warning: I’m performing awfully betting Tampa games this season, sustaining a big loss both betting them to win and lose in the last 30 days. 59% of my model money is on Tampa -1.5 goals, but they are struggling with V-1.5 in Tampa road and Columbus home games last 30 days. The other major concern is that Jonas Johansson is due for a start, so I’ll lay a minimum bet on Columbus moneyline +154. That also makes me nervous betting under 6.5, but I’ll stick to the general unders strategy until overs recover. At least Merzlikins has a .915 SV% last 30 days.
NYI @ DET:
My betting models largest position in this game is Detroit moneyline, but I’m unable to tail because Alex Lyon (.880 SV% last 4 GP) is going to be starting and the Wings have lost 4 of their last 5 games. It doesn’t matter who starts for NYI because Varlamov has been outplaying Sorokin last 30 days. The over/under was a tougher call, but I decided to take the over because of Lyon and I don’t want entirely unders tomorrow.
CAR @ NJ:
The Carolina Hurricanes play Philadelphia tonight and New Jersey tomorrow, which is why 57% of my model money is on Devils -1.5 goals. I’m going to tail with a minimum bet because betting against the Canes can be a scary proposition.
COL @ WSH:
The Washington Capitals hot start is at risk of cooling considerably after losing Alex Ovechkin to injury. The Avs meanwhile have been getting healthy, with Lehkonen, Nichuskin, and Drouin all returned to the line-up. 46% of my model money is on Colorado -1.5 goals, and that will be my pick too. The only concern is Avs goaltending, but Georgiev might be back for this one.
SJ @ STL:
Warning: The Blues are dead last in my profitability rankings, so proceed with caution. St. Louis opened as a -250 favorite to beat the Sharks tomorrow despite only being 1 point ahead of San Jose in the standings. That’s because San Jose will be on a back-to-back, which is also why my models have 59% on Blues -1.5 goals. I’m just going to put a minimum bet on San Jose +1.5 at -125, which might signal a strong likelihood of Blues -1.5 hitting. You decide. Once again going against model consensus and taking under 6 goals.
FLA @ CHI:
The Chicago Blackhawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and are without their top defenseman Seth Jones. That’s the primary reason I’m unable to tail my largest model position. Chicago has been getting good goaltending and this should be Spencer Knight for Florida, but Spence has a .902 SV% in the last 30 days, giving me some confidence in under 6.5 goals. My best models are 4-1 on Florida, so I’ll take Panthers -1.5 goals at +114.
MIN @ EDM:
The Minnesota Wild have won 7 of their last 10 games, the Oilers 6. Minnesota is 8-3 on the road, Oilers 4-6 at home. My models have the most money on EDM moneyline, but my best models have 52% of their max on Minnesota, so that’s going to be my pick too. My only fear is that Fleury is overdue for a start, but hopefully he’ll get the weaker Flames in their next game. My over/under models put 98% of their money on over 6, so I’m not going to argue with that one.
NYR @ CGY
The New York Rangers have won 7 of their last 10 games, while the Flames have sustained their winning record by going 5-5 in their last 10. The Flames have been getting great goaltending from Dustin Wolf, but he has started 2 in a row so this could be Vladar. 36% of my model money is on Rangers -1.5 goals and I’m going to tail despite having bad luck with favorites in the past week. My models actually preferred under 6, so I’ll take that as a strong endorsement.
Good luck!