NHL Bets, Thursday Nov 14
Welcome to another picks post, sharing my models picks (and less importantly my picks) for all 10 games tomorrow. These were all made this morning before work and are mostly just rapid-fire thoughts similar to social media posts. Instead of Tweeting all these in a venue where the algorithm conspires to hide my work from readers, I’ll send them to your inboxes instead. The good news is that my employer is moving me back to the night shift, which means I’ll have time before work every day to make all my picks and get them up on the blog not long after opening. Betting reports are also moving back to Mondays starting this week.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting almost all of these with bet sizes ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.
SJ @ NYR:
The Rangers are likely going to win this game, I just hate -400 moneylines and my worst models love this one. All 20 models have the most in Sharks +1.5, so I’m punting with a minimum bet at +124. That line has not moved at all. I took over 6 and that has moved to 6.5.
PHI @ OTT:
While I’m somewhat of a Sens believer, the -180 price was a turn off. Ottawa moneyline was my largest model position, but my worst models also loved Ottawa while my best love the Flyers. So, I’ll tail the largest top model wager and take Flyers +1.5 goals.
UPDATE: This is confirmed to be Ivan Fedotov for Philly, so I’m rescinding my endorsement of under 6.
STL @ BUF:
Tage Thompson left last game with injury but might play. St. Louis has lost 3 straight and only won 3 of their last 10, so I’ll tail my top models biggest bet and take Sabres -1.5 goals, but only a minimum wager. I’m lacking confidence because the Blues are my worst team. They are good when I bet their opponent and suck when I bet Blues. Maybe that means you should be taking Blues here…
UPDATE: Confirmed to be Devon Levi, Thompson and Samuelsson are out. I rescind my Sabres endorsement.
WPG @ TB:
The Jets soundly defeated the Rangers in Madison Square Garden last game and Tampa has lost 4 straight. It’s nice to see my betting models getting on board the Jets bandwagon. I’ll tail their largest position Jets -1.5 goals. Also love over 6 goals.
UPDATE: This is confirmed to be Eric Comrie in goal, so my Jets -1.5 goals pick loses some luster, but the over gets stronger.
NJ @ FLA:
The New Jersey Devils just beat the Florida Panthers 4-1 two days ago when my pick was the Devils moneyline. The problem with Devs ML again is my worst models love that bet, while my best models like the alt puckline -1.5. Seems unlikely lightning will strike twice in the same barn, but I’m putting a tiny bet on +265 for a shot at a big payout. The over/under was a tough call. Top models liked under 6, the rest liked over.
UPDATE: This is confirmed to be Jake Allen in goal for New Jersey, so I rescind my Devils -1.5 goals bet.
MTL @ MIN:
I’m not taking Montreal +1.5 because I think that’s a good bet. It’s my pick because my mandate is to record a wager for every single game with no abstentions and my worst models were too enthusiastic about Wild -1.5 goals, while my best models preferred Montreal +1.5 goals. That’s the calculus there. Wild won 7 of 10, Habs only 3. Maybe I’m crazy.
NSH @ EDM:
My models have a strong preference for Nashville tomorrow, but Preds struggle against Edmonton and are last place in the conference. My top models laid 50% of max on Oilers -1.5 goals while my worst really like Nashville. I’ll side with the better performers once again.
NYI @ VAN:
I’m just tailing my largest model position with a small bet alt puckline at +315, again taking a small shot at a big payout. This is not a wager I’m confident making, but Isles have covered +1.5 in 4 of their last 5, so I’m uncomfortable taking Canucks -1.5 like my top models. My confidence is higher betting over 6 goals.
BOS @ DAL:
The Bruins have lost Hampus Lindholm to injury, and he plays key minutes. Even with Lindholm they were 8-9. Stars are only 5-5 in their last 10 but are 6-1 at home, so I’ll tail my largest model position, Dallas -1.5 goals at +154.
CHI @ SEA:
I’m still trying to figure out if Seattle is good, but one thing we do know is they are only 2 PTS ahead of Chicago in the standings, so I’m not buying the -175 moneyline (which has moved to -162 so the public isn’t buying either). Granted, that’s precisely why some of my modes prefer the Kraken, but Hawks -1.5 at +335 is a fun one.
Good luck!