NHL Bets, Saturday Nov 23

There are 15 games on Saturday and I’m working in a few hours, so today’s picks post will be short and sweet. My results for the current week; down -$1,600 betting favorites (thanks to a few longshot upsets), and up $600 on over/under, mostly coming from unders. There is growing evidence of a decreasing scoring trend and if you bet $100 on every favorite -1.5 goals this week, you are down nearly $1,000. I’ll be avoiding favorites -1.5 goals tomorrow.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bet sizes ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

CHI @ PHI:

A large majority of my losses on favorites this week and last were from road teams, so I’ll tail my largest model position on the home moneyline. My models are 72% on over 6 goals, but I’m riding an unders heater lately.

MIN @ CGY:

The Calgary Flames have been winning more games than expected thanks to outstanding goaltending from Dustin Wolf. There is risk that Dan Vladar is due for a start, but he has not been terrible either. Give me the home dog +124. My largest model position is actually Flames -1.5 goals, but I’m happy with the moneyline.

SEA @ LA

My best models prefer the Kings, but my largest position all models is Seattle ML, and I’m shifting away from favorites until they re-heat. Give me the Kraken +140. I’m taking over 5.5 because I always do, but don’t feel good about it.

COL @ FLA:

The Colorado Avalanche are finally healthy, attracting the bets of all 5 top models, so I’ll take Avs ML at +114. Also really like under 6.5.

BOS @ DET:

My top models love Boston -1.5 goals against Detroit, but my confidence in the Bruins is too low for pucklines. I’ll just put a minimum bet on their moneyline and under 6 goals.

DAL @ TB:

My ability to decide when best to bet on or against Tampa has been very flawed this season, and I’m struggling betting visitor moneylines in Tampa home and Dallas road games last 30 days, but will tail the 80% of my top model money on Stars ML. Really like under 6.5 too. Should be Oettinger vs Vasilevskiy.

CAR @ CBJ:

63% of my model money is on Carolina -1.5 goals, but I’m trying to avoid that bet, sticking instead to moneyline. Though I’m getting crushed on VMLs in Columbus home games last 30 days, but am hoping for positive regression. Really like under 6.5.

UTA @ PIT:

The Penguins play Friday night against Winnipeg then host Utah tomorrow on a back-to-back. That’s why my models love Coyotes -1.5 goals, but I’ll take the moneyline and under 6.5 goals.

NJ @ WSH:

After watching Washington vs Colorado last night, doesn’t look like the Capitals will miss Ovechkin as much as I feared, hot as he was. My models once again like the favorite -1.5 goals and once again I’ll settle for the moneyline.

VAN @ OTT:

The Canucks are without J.T Miller on an Eastern road trip, so I’ll pass on my models largest position Canucks -1.5 and opt instead for the 2nd largest, Ottawa ML, but only a minimum bet because Sens have a habit of letting me down.

VEG @ MTL:

Same deal as the rest of this slate, models prefer -1.5 goals, I’m taking moneyline and under 6.5 goals, but you may want to make sure this isn’t Cayden Primeau for Montreal before tailing that one.

WPG @ NSH:

The Jets play tonight with Hellebuyck in goal, so this should be Comrie tomorrow (who has not been terrible). My trust in Nashville is low and Wedgewood is due for a start, but I’m still going to tail my largest model position Preds moneyline with a minimum bet. I’ll take over 6 goals hoping this is a battle of back-ups.

STL @ NYI:

The Blues are my worst team, so you might want to fade my Isles moneyline pick.

BUF @ SJ:

It should probably concern me that 57% of all model money is on Sabres moneyline despite being on a back-to-back against rested San Jose. But my best models have the most on Sharks moneyline +136, so that’s my bet. High risk of James Reimer starting for Buffalo.

NYR @ EDM:

My largest model position is Oilers moneyline, but my top models prefer Rangers -1.5 goals. I’ll take the moneyline at +120 because it feels nice getting this team at that price.

Good luck!