NHL Bets, Saturday Nov 16
Welcome to my last late night picks post, once again all these were made this morning before work, posted afterwards. The justification for each pick is compressed by time constraints, but posting all these on one blog post is better than Tweeting all the graphics. I’m going back to night shifts next week and will continue sharing picks for every single game, but I can finish and post before leaving the house. That will be better because there will have been less line movement and breaking news happening between picking and posting, especially injury and starting goalie news. My next betting report will be coming out Monday instead of Sunday now that I’m back working Sunday nights.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting almost all of these with bet sizes ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.
BUF @ PHI:
My models have 52% of their money invested in the Sabres -1.5 goals, but with the injuries to Tage Thompson and Luukkonen, that’s a risk I’m not will to take. Granted, the Flyers #1 goalie is also battling injury, so that’s why I’m deviating from model consensus and taking over 6.5 goals and Flyers moneyline.
CHI @ VAN:
My top models have 90% of their max allocated to Blackhawks moneyline at +205, while my worst models like Canucks -1.5 goals. Putting a minimum bet on the big dog felt like a worthwhile gamble, especially considering I’m taking a big loss on favorites -1.5 goals this week. I’m also concerned about Silovs being due for start, but that gives me confidence in over 5.5 goals (the first time either team has opened at 5.5 in the last 30 days).
CBJ @ MTL:
Seeing the Montreal Canadiens as a -148 favorite to beat anyone in the league is laughable, but because the Blue Jackets are going to be on a back-to-back with Tarasov likely starting, I’m going to tail 62% of my model money on Habs -1.5 goals (but only a minimum bet). The over/under was a tough call. All 20 models have 60% on over 6.5, but my best performers like the under, so that’s my pick.
DAL @ MIN:
This game was flagged for a high risk of back-ups starting for both teams and my models love Dallas -1.5 goals. My biggest concern is that the records of these teams indicate that Minnesota should be a -163 favorite, but that’s exactly why my value hedgers are taking the Stars. I’m more confident taking over 6 goals, but less so if this is indeed Gustavsson vs Oettinger.
DET @ LA:
The Red Wings are playing Anaheim tonight so won’t require a long flight before this back-to-back, but 77% of my model money is on Kings -1.5 goals so mine is too. Models also strongly supported over 6 goals.
EDM @ TOR:
Auston Matthews will not be playing tomorrow against the resurgent Oilers, that’s why I’m unwilling to tail my models largest position Leafs moneyline. My top models have more on Edmonton -1.5 goals, so that will be my pick too.
NJ @ TB:
The New Jersey Devils defeated the Florida Panthers in back-to-back road games and my betting models pushed me to the right side of both matches. They’re jumping back on Devils -1.5 goals and I’m not going to argue given Jersey has won 7 of 10 while Tampa has only won 5.
NYI @ SEA:
The Islanders are 4-3 in their last 7 games despite missing their best offensive talent, among other injuries. 41% of my model money is on Isles -1.5 goals, but I’ll play is safe with the moneyline. There is an error in the graphic below, I originally wrote V-1.5 into the “my pick” cell, so it’s showing my 0.64 return on $1 when 1.18 is my return last 30 days on VML. You may notice that mistake from time to time, more likely when I’m in a rush like right now. I could correct this in about 3 minutes but it’s been a long day.
OTT @ CAR
This pick might be crazy and here I am 10 hours later trying to figure out what compelled me to pick Ottawa -1.5 against a powerhouse like Carolina, aside from attracting the most model money (and the juicy +375 line). Hurricanes have won 8 of 10, Ottawa just 4. In retrospect, moneyline +164 might have been a more realistic gamble, which was the largest position of my best models. I haven’t hit a V-1.5 in a Carolina home or Ottawa road game in the last 30 days.
SJ @ PIT:
The Pittsburgh Penguins are a -205 favorite against San Jose tomorrow despite the back-to-back. They were just embarrassed by Columbus, so there’s a chance they could bounce back strong. My models did not have the data from that game when they laid 64% of their money on Sharks -1.5 goals this morning. I’ll tail with a minimum bet, once again chasing the bigger payout.
STL @ BOS
The largest position of all 20 models is Blues +1.5 goals, but I’m going to take the top model big bet of Bruins moneyline. I’m having success with HMLs in Boston home and St. Louis road games (despite St. Louis being my worst team), as betting Blues to lose by at least 2 goals has been my Achillies heal with this team. So, I’m taking moneyline here.
WPG @ FLA:
The Jets just lost in Tampa with back-up Eric Comrie in net, which wasn’t announced until after my pick was already logged and shared (I had him at a 40% chance, so the risk was in the data feeding my models, same with Levi and Fedotov). That’s a potential pitfall of getting picks out early, but it often works to my advantage too, getting a team vs a back-up that was not priced into the opening line. My largest model position is Panthers moneyline, so that’s going to be my pick. I actually haven’t bet many Florida home moneylines, often opting puckline (where I’m a net loser).
