NHL Bets, Monday Nov 25

Monday has an uncommonly busy slate of games, as the league is taking Thursday off for Thanksgiving, squeezing extra matches into the other days. My week saw a big loss on Monday and Tuesday, the last 2 nights of the first quarter. I’m up $1,000 fake dollars Wednesday to Saturday, so my Q2 is off to a great start. The exception being that my over/under models are getting crushed because scoring is decreasing at a time when it increased in past seasons. That shift in underlying parameters throws most of them off. Only my original Goalies Last 10 GP model is turning a profit last 30 days, and it’s crushing. My top 5 are all the members of my original Small Council, simple formulas not complex models. Dogs +1.5 goals is the best bet early in Q2. I’m completely avoiding favorites -1.5 goals until that rebounds.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

DAL @ CAR:

Both these teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games with some very disappointing upset losses that makes me uncomfortable taking either side. My hottest model has the Carolina ML, but my top models have more than double on Dallas ML, so I’ll take the dog +114. My models and I are performing very poorly last 30 days when either of these teams over/under total opens at 6. I’m siding with most of my models taking the over, but don’t feel good about it.

WSH @ FLA:

My models have the most money on Washington to beat Florida, but my worst models are driving that number. Panthers are coming off an ugly loss to Colorado, and the Capitals are playing better than expected without Ovechkin, but I’m tailing my hottest model on the Florida moneyline. I’m tailing the original GL10 model on all my O/U picks. Since Wednesday when the total opens at 6, unders are 13-4, so I’m taking a big risk with my second consecutive over, but I’m tailing the hot mod.

VEG @ PHI:

If not for my previous pledge to avoid favorites -1.5 goals (especially on the road), I’d be tailing my hottest model taking Vegas -1.5 PL. I’ll take the moneyline instead. My hottest OU likes under 6 so that’s my pick too, but my worst models also prefer the under, so it’s not a slam dunk.

NSH @ NJ:

My best models have 52% of their max on the Predators moneyline, and dogs are outperforming favorites this week, but I’m tailing the hottest model on the Devils ML. Scott Wedgewood is overdue for a start, so I can’t take Nashville.

STL @ NYR

The New York Rangers just got schooled by the Edmonton Oilers, while the Blues just fired their head coach and hired Jim Montgomery. I very nearly tailed my hottest model on the Rangers ML, but decided instead to put a little minimum bet on St Louis -1.5 goals at +430, rolling the dice on a “new coach bump”. I took under 5.5 at +115 because my hottest model did too, that has already moved to 6. I rarely pick under 5.5, but am going to try because +115 is a nice payout.

COL @ TB:

46% of my model money is on Colorado, who is healthy and just beat the defending champion 7-4. My hottest model likes the home team again and I may be disagreeing too often, but Tampa has a habit of letting me down whenever I pick them to win.

CGY @ OTT:

Once again, my hottest model likes the home moneyline, but my excuse for avoiding this time is Ottawa losing 5-straight, with me betting them to win their last 3 and losing. Should be Dustin Wolf in net for Calgary and their moneyline is my largest model position, although driven by my worst performers. Flames have won 4-straight.

DET @ NYI

The full roster of 20 models has more money on Detroit than Islanders, but my top models prefer the home team so I’ll tail on the moneyline. Both teams a 4-6 in their last 10 so there might be more value on the dog, but I’m very pessimistic as a Wings fan right now, clouding my judgement (historically excessive pessimism hurts me more than excessive optimism betting Detroit games). This is the first total opening at 5.5 for either team in the last 30 days.

WPG @ MIN:

If this was 2 weeks ago, I’d be jumping all over Jets -1.5 goals, the largest position of my best models. Minnesota was tempting as a home dog, but I’m going to put a minimum bet on Jets ML at least getting on the same side as my best mods. Taking another under 5.5 as this should be Hellebuyck vs Gustavsson and I like getting +105.

SEA @ ANA:

Both teams have won 4 of their last 6 games, but for Seattle all of those wins were at home. They have a 5-game road losing streak are 3-6 for the season. 68% of my model is on road favorite -1.5 goals, but ya’ll know by now I’m avoiding that wager. Instead, I’ll put a minimum bet on the home dog.

LA @ SJ:

This is another case where models really like road favorite -1.5 goals, but I’m settling for moneyline instead. Sharks have lost 6 of 7.

Good luck!