Fantasy Hockey 2023/24 Pre-Draft Rankings
If you are going to be drafting your fantasy team on Yahoo, it’s very important that you pre-rank your players. In the event of a freak power outage, a bad WIFI signal, or a general act of God that prevents you from making your picks, you don’t want to be dependent on Yahoo “xRank”. If you get stuck in traffic and miss your draft, the auto-draft AI will take the reigns and probably select a bad team (at least the Martin Marincin days are behind us). My conspiracy theory is that has always been intentional. They want the less dedicated or zombie teams to lose. It gives the people logging in every day a competitive advantage. The better they do, the more they check their team. It wouldn’t be hard to set accurate rankings that auto-drafts good teams, but it also demoralizes the real users who lose to zombies.
Don’t let yourself fall victim to the auto-draft A.I that wants you to fail. You need to set good rankings in the unlikely event you miss your draft, but also because, the better your pre-rank, the better you’ll be when you’re actually sitting down at the computer. Good players get buried in the Yahoo ranks (again, I believe intentionally), and you want their name coming up in your queue in the range that you should be considering them. It just so happens that I have been drafting fantasy teams since the internet was invented. I’m a pro. Hours of work go into my fantasy draft rankings, including projections for each player, and dozens of mock drafts to get a keen sense of where everyone is going. I don’t like picking players sooner than needed.
One of my annual traditions has been sharing my own personal pre-draft rankings for my followers to use. This is for a standard 12-team league with 192 players chosen, however this year I’ll be ranking the top 300, just to help those of you in deeper leagues. Since shots, hits, and power play points are categories in standard leagues, they are factored into my ranks. If your league is points-only, then you should not be using this to rank your players. It would still be better than Yahoo auto-draft, and it does put more weight on points than shots and hits, so it’s not entirely useless for other formats. I went through the Daily Faceoff projections of who will be playing on each team’s power play, making a projection of power play time for every player that factored into my ranks. Even PTS-only leagues love power plays. In the past I copied and pasted directly from Yahoo, but this year copied from my spreadsheet to add teams and positions.
My Draft Cheat Sheet was published on Tuesday, which was a list of the 102 players I picked most often in 36 mock drafts and the average pick chosen. That’s basically a summary of all the potential bargains on draft day, but I’m not using that to draft my real teams. Those mock drafts had a strong influence on these rankings, but in a very competitive league, most of those players will likely be gone by my mock average. In my real drafts, I assume everyone is a pro (but hope they’re stupid). I still don’t want to pull the trigger too soon, but also don’t want to wait too long and lose out on the most appealing players. It’s a delicate balancing act figuring out exactly where to rank each player, and mock drafts don’t allow any pre-ranking. If so, the results would likely have been much different.
My new magic trick this season to figure out the perfect spot to draft the players I like the most (and avoid those I don’t) was to create a new variable called the “80% range”, eliminating the earliest 10% players were chosen, and the latest 10%. For example; Evander Kane was 62-130. That means he was still available 90% of drafts at pick 62, and was gone 90% at 130. I picked Evander 6 times at an average of 113 (he shoots and hits a lot). He was 83 in my pre-ranks. Maybe he slips, but if my top 83 are gone, he’s my next pick for sure. Nugent-Hopkins has an 80% range from 25 to 40, and was listed at 40 in my pre-ranks. You can also find Nuge on my bust list as a regression candidate. I ranked him where he’s gone 90% of the time. Do you see the pattern?
The biggest difference between my draft rankings and all my many mocks is that none of my mocking was done looking at my projections as a guide, the choices were more instinctual than analytical. I spent a solid 50 hours this offseason preparing stat projections for each player, but once I compared that to my mock results, it became clear some of the “bargains” I was waiting on should have been taken even earlier than that. So you may see 140 for a guy on my Cheat Sheet at 100 in my pre-ranks. But there will surely be players ranked ahead of him who slip past 100 that I’ll take first, so I may still get that guy in the 120s or 130s. That’s how this works.
It’s also very important to note that this list is for drafts on Yahoo. I did no mocks on Fantrax and they have completely different rankings. A bargain here might not be a bargain there. I only play on Yahoo. My Draft Bargains and Busts posts are ostensibly ready, I just need to work on the introductions. They’ll be out by Friday afternoon. I wanted to get my Cheat Sheet and Pre-draft Rankings out first to help you with pre-ranking your players for anyone drafting Friday or Saturday. This is going to be a big weekend for NHL fantasy drafts and hopefully I’ve helped you prepare to be a shark in your draft room. If you’d like to review my rankings from last season, click here. To view my Fantasy Busts, click here. To view my Fantasy Draft Bargains, click here.
Also note, I tend to wait on goalies in 12-team drafts, which is reflected in these ranks. In deeper leagues, or even certain 12-team leagues, there will be a run on goalies early in a draft, and you could get screwed if you wait too long. If you’re doing a snake draft, you need to always keep an eye on which goalies are still available. If there’s hoarding going on, then you need to pull the trigger on your #1 goalie sooner, especially if it’s going to take a while to snake back to you. You’ll need to adapt. Auto-draft can’t adapt, so a deeper league pre-rank probably needs to boost the goalies in the rankings, ESPECIALLY if you’re in a crazy deep 20-team league. That’s where goalie hoarding is the worst. Good gatekeepers become a precious commodity. Good luck!
Also, subscribe for free to my new Substack site and you’ll get email notification when all my Waiver Wire Reports come out this season, either Friday night or Saturday morning. I’m brainstorming additional for subscribers and it’ll be free all season.
“Chance favors the prepared mind”
*Updated Oct 6 after browsing each team’s projected line-ups on Daily Faceoff, and tweaking a few based on my own first draft.*
Connor McDavid EDM C
Leon Draisaitl EDM C,LW
Nathan MacKinnon COL C
David Pastrnak BOS RW
Matthew Tkachuk FLA LW
Mikko Rantanen COL RW
Auston Matthews TOR C
Nikita Kucherov TBL RW
Jason Robertson DAL LW
Jack Hughes NJD C,LW
Brady Tkachuk OTT LW
Kirill Kaprizov MIN LW
Tage Thompson BUF C
Mitch Marner TOR RW
Cale Makar COL D
Tim Stützle OTT C,LW
Alex Ovechkin WSH LW
Elias Pettersson VAN C
Sidney Crosby PIT C
Igor Shesterkin NYR G
Ilya Sorokin NYI G
Jake Oettinger DAL G
Timo Meier NJD LW,RW
Roope Hintz DAL C
Brayden Point TBL C
Steven Stamkos TBL C
J.T. Miller VAN C,RW
Artemi Panarin NYR LW
William Nylander TOR RW
Alexandar Georgiev COL G
Mika Zibanejad NYR C
Kyle Connor WPG LW
Adam Fox NYR D
Roman Josi NSH D
Rasmus Dahlin BUF D
Linus Ullmark BOS G
Erik Karlsson PIT D
R. Nugent-Hopkins EDM C,LW
Aleksander Barkov FLA C
Connor Hellebuyck WPG G
Sebastian Aho CAR C
John Tavares TOR C
Quinn Hughes VAN D
Miro Heiskanen DAL D
Zach Hyman EDM LW,RW
Matt Boldy MIN LW
Juuse Saros NSH G
Jake Guentzel PIT LW
Dougie Hamilton NJD D
Brad Marchand BOS LW
Nico Hischier NJD C
Alex Tuch BUF RW
Clayton Keller ARI LW,RW
Alex DeBrincat DET LW,RW
Jeff Skinner BUF LW
Jack Eichel VEG C
Andrei Svechnikov CAR LW,RW
Jesper Bratt NJD LW,RW
Connor Bedard CHI C
Andrei Vasilevskiy TBL G
Moritz Seider DET D
Kevin Fiala LAK LW
Carter Verhaeghe FLA C,LW
John Carlson WSH D
Mikhail Sergachev TBL D
Ilya Samsonov TOR G
Jordan Kyrou STL C,RW
Joe Pavelski DAL C,RW
Dylan Larkin DET C
Evan Bouchard EDM D
Filip Gustavsson MIN G
Charlie McAvoy BOS D
Jeremy Swayman BOS G
Adrian Kempe LAK C,RW
Vitek Vanecek NJD G
Evgeni Malkin PIT C
Johnny Gaudreau CBJ LW
Victor Hedman TBL D
Chris Kreider NYR LW
Vince Dunn SEA D
Josh Morrissey WPG D
Evander Kane EDM LW
Claude Giroux OTT C,RW
Sam Reinhart FLA C,RW
Tristan Jarry PIT G
Frederik Andersen CAR G
Andrei Kuzmenko VAN LW
Jared McCann SEA LW
Martin Necas CAR C,RW
Jamie Benn DAL LW
Dylan Cozens BUF C
Sergei Bobrovsky FLA G
Noah Dobson NYI D
Mats Zuccarello MIN RW
Mark Stone VEG RW
Tyler Toffoli NJD RW
Pierre-Luc Dubois LAK C,LW
Stuart Skinner EDM G
Cole Caufield MTL LW,RW
Bo Horvat NYI C
Jonathan Huberdeau CGY LW
Seth Jones CHI D
Filip Forsberg NSH LW
Darcy Kuemper WSH G
Drew Doughty LAK D
Darnell Nurse EDM D
Devon Toews COL D
Pavel Buchnevich STL C,LW
Adin Hill VEG G
Alex Pietrangelo VEG D
Morgan Rielly TOR D
Drake Batherson OTT RW
Travis Konecny PHI RW
Mark Scheifele WPG C
Brent Burns CAR D
Rickard Rakell PIT RW
Kris Letang PIT D
Rasmus Andersson CGY D
Joonas Korpisalo OTT G
Brandon Montour FLA D
Joel Eriksson Ek MIN C
Justin Faulk STL D
Tyson Barrie NSH D
Zach Werenski CBJ D
Logan Thompson VEG G
Devon Levi BUF G
Gustav Forsling FLA D
Shea Theodore VEG D
Hampus Lindholm BOS D
Luke Hughes NJD D
Jon Marchessault VEG RW
Jacob Trouba NYR D
Thatcher Demko VAN G
Patrik Laine CBJ LW
Jacob Markstrom CGY G
Jake DeBrusk BOS LW
Matthew Beniers SEA C
Anze Kopitar LAK C
Troy Terry ANA RW
David Perron DET LW,RW
Brock Nelson NYI C
Akira Schmid NJD G
Elias Lindholm CGY C
Brandon Hagel TBL LW
Thomas Chabot OTT D
Jakob Chychrun OTT D
Aaron Ekblad FLA D
Mike Matheson MTL D
Vladimir Tarasenko OTT RW
Anthony DeAngelo CAR D
Viktor Arvidsson LAK LW
Nazem Kadri CGY C
John Klingberg TOR D
Dawson Mercer NJD C,RW
Marc-Andre Fleury MIN G
Tom Wilson WSH RW
K'Andre Miller NYR D
Vincent Trocheck NYR C
Tyler Bertuzzi TOR LW
Sam Bennett FLA C
Seth Jarvis CAR C,RW
Robert Thomas STL C
Jordan Eberle SEA RW
Pheonix Copley LAK G
Trevor Zegras ANA C
Patrick Kane UFA RW
Chandler Stephenson VEG C
Nick Suzuki MTL C
Anders Lee NYI LW
Nick Schmaltz ARI C,RW
MacKenzie Weegar CGY D
Connor Brown EDM RW
Reilly Smith PIT RW
Pyotr Kochetkov CAR G
Brayden Schenn STL C,LW
Owen Power BUF D
Owen Tippett PHI RW
Mathew Barzal NYI C,RW
Bowen Byram COL D
Cam Fowler ANA D
Pavel Zacha BOS C
Ivan Barbashev VEG C,LW
Shayne Gostisbehere DET D
Tomas Hertl SJS C
Ville Husso DET G
Valeri Nichushkin COL RW
Noah Hanifin CGY D
Cam Talbot LAK G
Adam Larsson SEA D
Rasmus Sandin WSH D
Michael Bunting CAR LW
Brock Boeser VAN RW
Brady Skjei CAR D
Boone Jenner CBJ C,LW
Philipp Grubauer SEA G
Jake Sanderson OTT D
Nikolaj Ehlers WPG LW
Neal Pionk WPG D
Taylor Hall CHI LW
Gabriel Vilardi WPG C
Artturi Lehkonen COL LW
Mikael Backlund CGY C
Bryan Rust PIT RW
Barrett Hayton ARI C
Joshua Norris OTT C
Mason Mctavish ANA C,LW
Anthony Beauvillier VAN LW,RW
Jason Zucker ARI LW
Blake Wheeler NYR RW
Lucas Raymond DET LW,RW
Adam Fantilli CBJ C
Ryan Hartman MIN C,RW
Oliver Bjorkstrand SEA RW
Oliver Wahlstrom NYI RW
Matthew Knies TOR LW
Calen Addison MIN D
Matt Duchene DAL C,RW
Filip Hronek VAN D
Evgeny Kuznetsov WSH C
Dylan Strome WSH C
Jonathan Drouin COL LW
Radko Gudas ANA D
Wyatt Johnston DAL C
Filip Chytil NYR C
Andrew Mangiapane CGY LW,RW
Max Domi TOR C,LW
Alexis Lafreniere NYR LW
Luke Schenn NSH D
J.J. Moser ARI D
Jordan Binnington STL G
Mattias Ekholm EDM D
Dmitry Orlov CAR D
Carter Hart PHI G
Luke Evangelista NSH RW
Torey Krug STL D
Nino Niederreiter WPG RW
Lawson Crouse ARI LW,RW
Casey Mittelstadt BUF C
Kent Johnson CBJ C,LW
Antti Raanta CAR G
Jeff Petry DET D
Phillip Danault LAK C
Andre Burakovsky SEA LW,RW
Kirby Dach MTL C
Logan Couture SJS C
Lukas Reichel CHI LW
Kaapo Kakko NYR RW
Tyler Seguin DAL C,RW
Alex Killorn ANA LW,RW
Frank Vatrano ANA C,LW
William Karlsson VEG C
Dominik Kubalík OTT LW
Kevin Hayes STL C
Conor Garland VAN RW
Tanner Jeannot TBL LW
T.J. Oshie WSH RW
Josh Anderson MTL RW
Logan Cooley ARI C
Ryan Donato CHI C
Cameron York PHI D
Thomas Novak NSH C
Tomas Tatar COL LW,RW
Charlie Coyle BOS C
Yanni Gourde SEA C
Eeli Tolvanen SEA RW
Karel Vejmelka ARI G
Ryan Pulock NYI D
Daniel Sprong DET RW
Scott Laughton PHI C
Victor Olofsson BUF LW,RW
Dillon Dube CGY C, LW
Jesperi Kotkaniemi CAR C
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI C
Morgan Frost PHI C
Matias Maccelli ARI LW
Arthur Kaliyev LAK RW
Andreas Athanasiou CHI C
Alex Newhook MTL C
Ross Colton COL C, LW
Brandt Clarke LAK D
Taylor Raddysh CHI RW
Spencer Knight FLA G
Cody Glass NSH C
Adam Henrique ANA C, LW
John Gibson ANA G
Sean Durzi ARI D
U.P Luukkonen BUF G
Rasmus Ristolainen PHI D
Gustav Nyquist NSH LW
Teuvo Teravainen CAR LW
Anton Lundell FLA C
Anton Forsberg OTT G
Joel Farabee PHI LW
Jakub Vrana STL LW
Jaden Schwartz SEA C, LW
Samuel Girard COL D
Michael Rasmussen DET C, LW
Noah Cates PHI C, LW
Jonas Johansson TBL G
J.T. Compher DET LW,RW