Welcome to my final betting preview of the 2023/24 season, which won’t take up too much of your time, as it does not contain a round 3 review and only previews one series. This was not originally on my itinerary, but doing some research for my game one pick revealed an interesting angle that’s going to be my finals theme. In the last 3 Stanley Cup finals, home teams are 11-5 and a whopping 15-1 on the puckline +1.5 goals (home favored in 75% of those games). That might be a small sample size and each series has unique factors affecting home/road quality of play. Nothing is guaranteed, but I’m happy taking a big swing at that 15-1 record.
Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
This could be my last betting related post of the summer, but a review of the entire playoffs has not been ruled out. We’ll see how far I fall down the draft rabbit hole. My trades spreadsheet is ready to rock, though still in the early stages. There are a little over 4,000 trades dating back to 2005. The source wasn’t great and there were a bunch of errors, leading me to an exhaustive error checking/repair process. I even found a bunch of mistakes and omissions at HockeyDB.com used to verify the source material, but I’m comfortable we’re close enough to accurate. There were only 23 trades featuring top 32 centers: coming back were 8 top 6 forwards, 2 top 4 D and 27 draft picks (13 first round, 6 seconds, 5 thirds, 3 four+), also 7 U22 players who were former first round picks, 3 seconds.
The objective here is figuring out the precise trade value of any given asset. The spreadsheet also has contract status, rentals vs term, next team signed with, next contract, etc. If you’re a subscriber already tired of this non-betting banter, you can actually edit your Substack settings and choose which of my interests notify you. It requires you to click the unsubscribe button, but that’s where you can edit your preferences. Anyway; enough shop talk, the Edmonton Oilers will be facing the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup final, and this delay has really amped my excitement to watch. Canadian representation adds an element of intrigue and I’ve been listening to a few podcasts to help me prepare, but won’t pretend I have any idea who is going to win.
There was already a big clue in the intro who I’ll be picking in the series. While this does not contain a round 3 review, my net balance was a $47 loss on $4,900 fake dollars wagered on wins-losses-over-under. My series bets went 1 for 3, only hitting Florida -140, whiffing on both my “correct score” picks (Dallas in 6, Florida in 7). In the last 29 playoff series, I have picked the winner in the correct number of games twice. Not trying to brag, but my analytical skills are at the high end of the spectrum, and my obsession with hockey runs deep. I’m 2-27 picking “series correct score”, but stay tuned, because my pick for the final is coming soon. Below are category stats from the last 3 playoffs.
As you can see above, my performance in the last three finals is unlikely to inspire confidence in my upcoming picks, producing a net loss of -$780. The main source of my trouble was road teams and underdogs (which 75% of the time is the same thing), but the bulk of that loss came from the Montreal Canadiens +1.5 goals vs Tampa. That was a pick I was riding hard into the final and the golden goose stopped laying eggs. You can see the evidence supporting home teams, with -1.5 goals narrowly edging out +1.5 (includes favorites and dogs). My over/under tracking did not begin until the following season, so I only have 11 games of data, and overs went 6-5. It feels strange that 9 of those games had a total set at 6, given what we’ve seen lately.
For game one of the upcoming final, I’m laying a max bet on under 5.5 goals, which has strong support from all 3 aggregators. My only cause for concern is the long layoff cooling Skinner’s heater, but a quick glance at the database revealed an even split between overs and unders after layoffs this long. My series bet is a little complicated because I’m cheering for Edmonton almost as hard as my Red Wings by Cup #4. If God offered me the chance to trade all my memories of Detroit’s 2008 Cup for Edmonton winning in 2024 ending the Canadian drought, I might pull the trigger. I’m still not ruling that out if God decides to make the offer. That pro-Canada rooting interest does cloud my vision of the future, but I’m picking Florida for the plain and simple reason, they have home ice advantage.
Series pick: Florida -125 and in 6 games +500
The long wait before puck drops game one brought series withdrawal symptoms the first 2 days, but has actually been refreshing listening to podcasts with plenty of time to reflect and prepare (my picks were logged before listening to Chiclets, you’ll just have to trust me on that). Both teams won in the same number of games with plenty of time for difference makers to rest/recover ahead of a grueling battle. The breakdown for my game one pick won’t be dropping any revelations that have not already been addressed. My strategy is home +1.5 PL and will need 2 strikeouts before abandoning the strategy. Granted, if Oilers win by 2+ goals in each of the first two games, I’ll be happy taking them +1.5 in game three.
The under has moved from +100 to -105, so at least the public money is on my side for now. The Panthers ML has moved from -130 to -142, which now has the alt puckline up to -360. That’s why I’m doing the max bet, keeping in mind that I’m using a 1:5 min:max ratio. Maximum might mean something different to you, so please don’t bet your mortgage on the Panthers alt puckline tomorrow. Sorry, I probably don’t include enough “please bet responsibly” notes given that I’m still playing with pretend money. I’m pathologically cheap with real money. I don’t even own a credit card (the bank would love to give me one). Trust me, if I started playing with real money, my picks pieces would be a lot of “today we have Panthers +2.5 at -700” type of selections. It’s better for both of us if the only thing that I lose from incorrect picks is self-esteem, because I also value that a great deal.
Good luck, and bet responsibly!