There were 71 round two games last 3 seasons, home teams went 35-36, over 5.5 went 27-18, under 6.5 went 17-9. Home teams favored by at least -150 were terrible wagers. Home favorite moneyline was easily my worst demographic, followed by over 6.5 and under 5.5. My over/under was brutal in round one so I’m not sharing much advice for optimal handling in this report, given my OU confidence is at an all-time low, scrubbed from public pick graphics. There will be some soul searching and re-designing how OU models are structured this summer, but the historical data leans over 5.5 and under 6.5, but no guarantee of history repeating.

Sorting the last 71 R2 games by home moneyline revealed not much profitability in the tails, but road moneyline is a tremendous bet when the home moneyline is between -120 and -190. Road favorites are 21-4 covering +1.5 goals. One observation about round two: even strength shot share in round one has a negative correlation with win % in round two. That’s because 4 of the 6 highest values lost their round two series. The highest correlation to R2 W% was R1 W%. Teams who win round one faster have an advantage against opponents who played more games, but often the two teams both won their previous round in 6.

Here’s a look at the last 12 round two series with lines and wins. The right-hand side are my picks. Good news, there won’t be any Toronto reverse jinx attempts in 2026. The higher seed is 6-6, so finishing with a better regular season has a slightly negative correlation to winning in round two. Whereas the betting favorites are 8-4. Winnipeg winning the west last year, and Florida upsetting Toronto as the 8-seed were responsible for a big chunk of that slightly negative correlation. The betting favorite went 4-0 last season, so instead of a regression model, we (my and GPT) built an “upset probability” model.

Basically, we (me and GPT) took the 4 teams who won upsets, the 4 who lost, take the average of every stat for those 2 groups, looking for the variable with the most significant difference between groups, which in this case is road GF% in round one. Below is an image with the last 12 R2 game ones. Home favorites went 2-5, road favorites went 2-3. The 5 biggest favorites all lost. A big round two game one rule. DON’T PAY TAXES ON FAVORITES!!! Home teams are 8-4 in game two. Dogs that had the best road GF% in round one are the most likely to stage game one (and series) upsets. Being good on the road in round one is important for underdog success round two.

The other good news is my moneyline/puckline models performing well in round one, so they will continue being my primary signal moving into round two. Analysis for this preview began on April 22, nearly all of this report spoiled for paid subscribers if they’ve been reading all my new posts. One way macro trends will be included statistically is with profit scores, with me constructing two different models to estimate profit score based on the lines last 3 playoffs. Only one of those models is being shared here, but also provides free subscribers with a general guide game-by-game, if you trust the historical numbers (after reading my intro).

The first isn’t exactly a “model”, just profit scores for home/road, fave/dog each game of a series, reflected in the image below. These exact scores for these exact situations will be in round two pick graphics, and will be part of the average confidence score guiding my decisions. The other model produces a profit score estimate based on home moneyline, which will also be in the pick graphics. These are replacing “Line Range Historically” and “Models with Teams” in the current graphics for game one round two. Take the dog in game one and the home team game two are the biggest macro level takeaways (history repeating is not guaranteed).

There won’t be any free chat threads this round, but if you’re a freebie getting picks off Substack chat, you should also be getting my public posts on their social platform. All approved picks are shared there 15-20 minutes before puck drop, at puck drop on Twitter, a few hours before the game on Instagram. I’m still trying to build my Instagram following, so that’s where free plays drop first. Paid subscribers get all the picks the moment they’re made, which is often shortly after the final buzzer for early games, next morning for late games. My game one pick for the first three series are included below, nearly all of the round one chat threads unlocked for free subscribers if you want to review these teams.

Reminder to all subscribers, the Hockeynomics Factory doesn’t slow production in the spring and summer. There are no more weekly reports and diminishing daily bets shared, but I’m already waist deep in contract analytics and player valuations. We’re not getting a July “free agent frenzy” with no free agents remaining, but my 2027 preliminary prediction list drops in June. Right now I’m just updating my contracts database with all the new deals signed, then I’m recalibrating my “expected free agent value” model adjusting for shifting market conditions, and forecasting the next 9 years of every player to assign grades to all active deals (excluding minor leaguers who didn’t play NHL this season or last).

The heavy lifting for player forecasts and contract valuations will be wrapped by the time Lord Stanley’s mug is awarded, because the next day my betting model recalibration project begins, where all paid subscribers get a tutorial in model building, and a peak behind the curtain. Most annual subscribers already have a spreadsheet to build betting models and a chat thread explaining how to use it (which is open to everyone if you want to preview the goods before committing), and will get a new one this summer once my new sheet is ready. More spreadsheets are coming, shared exclusively with annual subscribers!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Philadelphia vs Carolina

Series Pick: Carolina (-330), in 6 games (+350)

Our first confirmed series of the divisional championships, Flyers vs Hurricanes, with Carolina a -330 favorite to advance. Looking at some head-to-head stats between these teams, Canes won 13 of the last 15 matches, dominating even strength shot share 63%. I’m also turning a big profit in those 15 GP, so hopefully that will spill into this series. My pick for the series was decided before Philly-Pittsburgh ended, spoiled in the chat, but I’m taking Carolina. The only undecided aspect last week was 5 or 6 games, and because Philly had a 61% road GF% in round one, and that’s the primary upset indicator, Canes were just better at 67%, and the next best R2 indicator is speed of dispatching R1 opponent, Canes 2 games faster.

Tocchet’s system has produced a very goalie friendly environment, which gets us to the Philly x-factor, Dan Vladar. Carolina’s biggest vulnerability previous playoffs were hot goalies, where peppering low danger shots from everywhere produces less offense than shaky goaltending. Vladar has some incredible stretches and was fantastic collecting a shutout win game six, but also let in a couple bad goals. Danny playing awesome is the cheat code to beating the Canes system (no idea if he will), and Carolina goaltending staying sharp (another issue for Carolina past rounds 2/3) is the only antidote to Vladar series theft scenario.

As spoiled in my round two preview chat thread, I’m leaning into road dogs game one, home teams game two, unless models/profit scores convince me otherwise. Those models have a slight preference for Carolina, profit scores leaning slightly Philly. Given the Flyers are 2-13 vs Carolina last 3 years, I’m hesitant picking them straight-up, but they are 10-5 on the puckline +1.5 goals in those games, so that’s going to be my game one pick. Over/under was a coin toss, I opted for under because it is +105. It’s risky because over 5.5 is a dominant round two bet, assuming history repeats, which it hasn’t all season, so why start now?

Minnesota vs Colorado

Series Pick: Colorado (-205), in 7 games (+400)

The Colorado Avalanche swept LA, who really didn’t deserve to make playoffs based on their season, except all the teams beneath them who missed were even more undeserving of a post-season slot. The reason Colorado and Dallas were battling so hard to win the division was avoiding Minnesota in round one, but now that we’re in round two, getting the easier R1 match-up could work against them. Avs broomed a shitty team and haven’t played in days, Wild slayed a top Cup contender, so the “battle-tested” meter swings hard in Minny’s favor. My conflict of interested was picking Colorado to win the Cup in my pre-playoffs bracket.

The top upset indicator in series modelling is road GF%, Colorado 75% and Minnesota 63%, but adjusting for opponent degree of difficulty (which my series modelling did not do), the playing field is more level. Avalanche won 10 of their last 15 head-to-head match-ups, but 6-2 on the road and 4-3 at home, so there is some upset potential in game one, especially with the aforementioned battle-tested meter. That’s insufficient to convince me of a series upset, so Avs are my pick at -205, but there’s more “value” on Minnesota +170 if you like betting at the series level. My correct score pick is Avs in 7 at +400.

Looking at the numbers for game one, models and profit scores are leaning heavily into the road dog, which affirms my macro strategy for game ones. Wild are +142 and that’s a nice number. The longer layoff might help Colorado later in the series, but that can also produce rust in game one, especially against an opponent fresh off defeating a much better team. Confidence testing wanted a green light, but I’m going to cap at a yellow caution, respecting Avs effectiveness against Minnesota in recent seasons. The only problem with that, Wild arguably have a much better team now than most of those games, it’s just confidence is limited by Avs being my Cup pick.

Anaheim vs Vegas

Series pick: Vegas (-190) in 6 games (+400)

The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim just slayed goliath, who was injured and leaking badly from his rear-end, but terminated none the less. Ducks have been a great story this season and we were early passengers on that bandwagon, but they struggled down final the stretch and lost my confidence. Now they face another behemoth, who also struggled 2^nd half, but reversed course after harnessing “new coach energy” right before playoffs and got Carter Hart back from injury. I was skeptical of that bump being meaningful given their cream-puff schedule, but dispatching a good Utah team has restored my confidence. Golden Knights are -190 to win the series and are my pick to advance.

The next question requiring answering is number of games, which is either 5 or 6. The best upset indicator is road GF% and Ducks were under 50% in Edmonton, while the Knights were 57% in Salt Lake City. The biggest red flag is Vegas being 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Anaheim, but 4 of those games were the 2^nd half of a back-to-back where Vegas went 1-3. Home side won 10 of the last 14 meetings between them, Knights have home ice advantage in the series, so I’ll take Vegas in 6 games at +400. If my analyst hat is removed and look at this through a hockey fandom lens, it would be way more fun if Ducks won. The quack attack would be back Jack!

We have already established that I’m leaning dogs in game one, home teams game two, and this one is no different. Of the first 3 series, game one prices are in the same range, which is very profitable for the road dog historically (with the obligatory “history not guaranteed repeating” warning). Downside, very negative profit scores on visitor moneyline for “these teams last 30 days”, me with these teams L30, and teams at venue. That’s why I’m manually reducing the confidence score even further. Nobody expected Anaheim to make playoffs, so the young roster is playing with house money, while Knights are Cup or bust and likely feeling more pressure, just not sure which side that benefits.

Montreal vs Buffalo

The Buffalo Sabres clinched first place in the Atlantic division, giving them home ice in the divisional title round, but that may not matter considering the just outscored the Bruins 13-3 in Boston, while Montreal was 11-9 in Tampa. As just mentioned in the Habs-Bolts chat, Dobes was incredible to close out this series, outduelling elimination game Vasileskiy. Buffalo just dispatched Swayman, but the roster in front of him was barely playoff quality. Lyon was good last series, but Alex Lyon BEING good and STAYING has been a past issue, Montreal with more offensive firepower than Boston. Lyon going from Boston to Montreal is a harder leap than Dobes from Tampa to Buffalo.

This series opened as a pick’em and I’m a little surprised to see that number, but possibly a bigger shock is the difficulty making a decision. At the end of the 2^nd period tied 1-1 and Habs had 4 shots, I didn’t think they’d win the game much less advance to the conference final, but winning the game on the back of Dobes is producing a mental stalemate. I was cheering for the Canadian team to beat Tampa, but Buffalo is almost a Canadian city, in spirit and personality. My grandmother was born in Buffalo and I’m on that bandwagon right now, creating inner-turmoil. The actual metrics I’m using to pick round two winners lean Buffalo, so I’ll take Sabres -110, though just noticed Fanduel has Canadiens favored -118. Best upset indicator is road GF%, Sabres dominated in Boston, so now I’m feeling better about my pick. Draft Kings doesn’t have a correct score line up yet, but I’m picking 7 games.

Okay, that Buffalo -110 pick is now final, but I just looked up the head-to-head stats, and Montreal is 7-1 in their last 8 trips to Buffalo, 10-5 in the last 15 all venues. Buffalo is a -125 favorite to win game one, which where I expected their series line to be. That’s almost enough to convince me into taking Montreal game one, then I ran the numbers and consulted models, all signs point strongly towards Habs. In retrospect, I should have done my game one pick before the series pick, because looking at the game one numbers would have nudged me over to Canadiens winning this series. But the series pick officially dropped on the chat, so I’m beholden to that decision.

Round one of the NHL playoffs has arrived, the best two weeks of the year to be a hockey fan, even if your team pathetically crapped out of the playoff race once again. This is my 7th playoffs since the “picking every game” experiment began, and my general experience is macro strategies that worked one playoff are never guaranteed repeat next year. Studying my previous round one previews/reports to build a strategy for upcoming playoffs rarely works. Each series is a unique organism; and what works each round is the sum of those parts. They can be radically different from year-to-year. This regular season was radically different than previous seasons. Decent chance that mess spills into playoffs.

THIS WAS POSTED BEFORE ALL THE GRAPHIC IMAGES WERE COMPLETED. WRITING WAS FINISHED AND GAMES START TOMORROW. MORE IS GETTING ADDED TO THIS IN THE COMING HOURS!

Looking at all my series picks from the last 3 first rounds. I’m 16-8 picking the winner, but 2-6 picking the lower seed to win. Pro tip, higher seed is 20-4 last 3 round ones, the betting favorite going 22-2. It was tempting to blanket bet every series favorite to win, however this parity season substantially diverged from historical profitability parameters, so expecting a few upsets is perfectly reasonable, if not prudent. Wildcard teams are 0-8 last two years in round one. One key observation from the last 24 series, I’m bad at picking the winner in the correct number of games, going 4-20, so built a model to perform that function, which I’m blindly following in my series picks.

Below is a look at my personal profit rankings by team in the last 3 first rounds. This is encouraging. Most of my worst teams missed playoffs, though I’m skeptical those profit numbers are transferable one season to the next. Each series is its own beast; like when Winnipeg played Vegas and lost Morrissey to injury, I went ALL IN on the Golden Knights. I think that series alone pulled me into profit for the entire round. Not sure I’ll be aggressively betting to Vegas to win this year. New coach bump, but they’ve had such an easy schedule last month, not exactly battle tested. Then again, that’s probably true of the entire Western conference, and nobody in the west is playing a hardened eastern team until the final.

The best news is that my two most significant “mind virus” teams (Detroit and Toronto) are both heading to the golf course and fantasy playoffs wrapped, so there is no reverse jinx temptation, aside from slightly Ottawa. Wings losing 8-1 to the Florida Panthers farm team is a symbolically perfect ending to this nightmare, ironically, the song Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald came up next on shuffle while writing this paragraph, another excellent metaphor for what just happened. The only thing easing my sorrow is Red Wings sweeping the season series with Toronto, and the magic monkey paw successfully cursed another Leafs campaign, but dragged my Wings into the abyss…again…but I’ll whip out that paw next Dec 31 too…

My success betting teams last 30 days is one of my most important pick selection signals in the regular season, but those regular season profit scores have weak correlation with who wins within a series historically. For individual games, nearly all my betting models are built with playoff specific programming and I’ll be trusting that often as possible, aside from leaning hard into road dogs hard round one in April. All the game one picks can be found in Substack chat, each series getting its own thread, Carolina-Ottawa open to free subscribers. If any Canadian team advances to round two, that thread will also be free.

The series predictor model constructed would have picked the correct series winner in 19 of the last 24 first round series, and in the correct number of games 13 times. This is built on some smaller samples with no functionality guarantee, but given my disappointing results picking series “correct score”, this was required. In the last 24 round one series, there was 1 sweep, 7 series went 7, 16 series went 5 or 6, so it does aim for a similar distribution here, except that favorites the series lines are already lower price on average than last season, also reflected in game one prices. Parity could lead to a spike in 7 gamers, so modelling on non-parity could prove a mistake. We’ll see soon enough.

There is not much over/under analysis here, at least at the macro level, there is discussion at the series level, because that’s what drives macro conditions. My over/under models are all trained for playoffs and will have substantial sway over my game-by-game decisions, at least for game one. Once these series get going, my picks because more vibe driven by goaltending play, and for sure there’s a few teams I’m not even sure who will be starting game one. In the last 21 game ones with a total at 5.5, overs are 14-7. Only 3 of the last 24 game ones had a total at 6.5 but we have five this year. Oddsmakers are pricing a scoring increase over 2025.

Below is a fun image, playoff team win % against other playoff teams last 2/3 of the regular season, which mentioned frequently below (playoff teams = POT). HOWEVER: that stat is not used by my model, because average moneyline against other playoff teams was the #1 most correlated statistic to series win %. How oddsmakers priced them against other playoff teams was considerably better than actual record against those teams. You can read more about the actual model in Substack Chat. One final fun stat to keep in mind: Last 3 first rounds, home teams facing elimination in games 5 or 6 are 17-5.

If you want picks on the individual games, everything drops first in Substack Chat for paid subscribers often right after the previous game ends, $6.99 gets you the all-access backstage pass. All non-stay-away picks will be shared for free on social media, dropping first on Instagram. I’m trying to build up my following on that platform, so that’s where you’ll get the best access to free plays; next on the Substack social network, and at puck drop on Twitter and Bluesky. If you click on the images for series match-ups, it will take you to the chat thread.

Minnesota vs Dallas

Our first confirmed series opened with Dallas -140, until Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz suffered injuries, then they moved to -125. Miro is the bigger concern because not having him would be a substantial blow and clouds the series outlook. Stars are being quiet about his status, so we really have no idea how serious this might be. My initial lean was Dallas because they won 7 of their last 10 home games against Minnesota and have a strong edge in the head-to-head data. Granted, most of those last 20 games didn’t feature Quinn Hughes, a game-changing talent. Wild loaded up at the deadline and have a very physical team that could cause Dallas problems in a 7-game series.

Completion of my series predictor model revealed Dallas barely winning in 7 games, when coupled with the Heiskanen injury, locked me into Wild +105 and 7 games at +550. As mentioned earlier, the betting favorite won 22 of the last 24 round one series, but feels like we’ll get an extra upset or two given 2025/26 parity pandemic. It’s also possible Heiskanen is fine and I’m overreacting to that news, but he’s questionable for game one, which is at least better than “out”. UPDATE: Since writing that previous sentence, it has been announced Miro is playing in game one, which hasn’t moved the Dallas series line. Regardless, my position was officially declared last week, deadline for mind changing expired.

Of those 20 aforementioned games, the over/under total was 5.5 for 17 of them, unders going 11-6. Both these teams can score, but both have excellent goaltenders and could clamp down the back-end for a low scoring series. These teams were excellent over picks when the total was 6.5 against other playoff teams, but when it was 5.5, Dallas was a good under bet, Minnesota over, but I’m expecting this to be 5.5 for most of the series. I’ll be leaning over 5.5 goals until proven that’s a bad decision, the concern being Wild averaging 6.8 goals per game (F+A) vs other POT last 2/3 of the season.

Utah vs Vegas

Vegas clinched the division and draws arguably a more difficult round one opponent than Edmonton, as firing their coach 2 weeks before playoffs helped bump them past the finish line. Problem is, I don’t know if “new coach bump” is transferable to playoffs, because we rarely see playoff teams fire their coach with a few games left. Didn’t work for the Islanders, who missed playoffs altogether, but if Vegas goes on a long run, we’ll probably see a few more playoff-bound teams fire their coach with a few games left next year. The bottom line is that Utah had a better expected series W% and came out as the projected winner by my newly constructed model, so I’m picking Mammoth.

Looking deeper into the numbers, the stat that pushed Utah ahead was road GF% last 2/3 of the schedule, and we discussed their excellent road record a few times down the stretch, while Knights struggled at home. Vegas on the other hand, went 2-9 at home against other playoff teams. Utah went 11-12 against other POT, Vegas went 8-17, contributing to Cassidy getting fired. That said, average moneyline against other playoff teams is a better predictor and Vegas was favored in 68% of those games (they fell behind in modelling based on the secondary inputs). Knights won 7 of their last 8 games, but 5 of those wins were against non-playoff teams, so that new coach bump might be artificially enhanced.

My biggest question mark is the quality of Carter Hart, who returned from injury two weeks ago and played well (mostly against weaker competition), because Karel Vejmelka was really streaky for my championship winning fantasy team and if he’s outplayed by Hart, my Mammoth pick loses appeal. How these two goalies handle themselves also has a big impact on my over/under picks, but right now I’m leaning over 5.5 and under 6.5 as a general strategy unless models disagree. If either goalie struggles in game one, I would be leaning over 6.5 if that’s the total in game two.

Montreal vs Tampa

Montreal is facing mighty Tampa and my E[W%] model has Lightning at 62%, so that’s a weaker 6-game series win. They’re -245 on the series line, and I’m looking at Montreal +200 with temptation because they’re on an 11-2 heater, but the modelling is calling for Lightning in 6. It failed criteria for promoting to 5 and demoting to 7. Tempting as the Habs line was (my personal preference if for the Canadian team to advance, but Habs are 2^nd from last in my Canadian team likeability ranking), I’m trusting my newly constructed series model and going Tampa. That doesn’t mean I’m picking them in any of the individual games, but I’m trusting the model

Looking at the last 15 games between these teams cooled that aforementioned temptation, with Tampa going 5-2 at home and 5-3 on the road, winning 67% of the games straight-up. The mismatch in goal is arguably the biggest edge, Habs goalies playing better the last month but still lacking playoff experience. These teams had nearly identical 64% winning percentages against other playoff teams last 2/3 of the season, same home road splits, similar GF-GA averages. There is some evidence these objects are closer than they appear, but I’m trusting the modelling for my series picks, with more freedom game-to-game. Tampa did have a better shot share against other POTs.

Over/under is foggy because Montreal had been among the best over teams most of the season, then started getting saves down the stretch and their unders gained momentum. No idea if they’ll continue getting those saves, Dobes posting a .934 SV% in his last 10 GP, Fowler .913, can that withstand the Lightning onslaught? I’ll need to see the lines and model opinions, because this is another “leaning over 5.5, under 6.5”. In the last 24 game ones, only 3 had a total at 6.5, and over 5.5 is a great bet in game one, maybe the best strategy is leaning over 5.5 and under 6.5 every game one, then just play each series as they unfold. You need shaky goalies for over 6.5 to be a good bet.

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh

Welcome to the battle of Pennsylvania! This is fun, glad we got this match-up, Pittsburgh opening at -170, Philly +140. My first impression was -170 feeling too expensive for Pittsburgh, noting in the chat my pending refusal to pay that price. Then Penguins were fed into my series predictor model, and came out winning in 6 games. Looking at the last 15 games played between these teams, home side is 10-5, Pittsburgh 6-2 at home. Flyers won the last game in Pitt, but neither Malkin or Crosby dressed for that one, so let’s not weigh that too heavily in the decision.

The case for Philly is they ended as an excellent road team, and they’ll need at least 1 road win the prevail in this series. Pittsburgh went 5-11 at home against other playoff teams last 2/3 of the season, while Philly went 8-6 on the road vs PO. Yet in those samples, Penguins had a better even strength shot share, better power play, and better penalty kill. Flyers are getting better goaltending, with Vladar at a .908 SV% last 30 days, Skinner .879. There is evidence this might not be the -170 slam dunk oddsmakers think, but series favorites won 22 of the last 24, and this isn’t enough to flip me. Time will tell if my initial instinct or the modelling was correct.

Game-to-game I’ll probably lean more into road Flyers, while over/under I’m unsure. Pens averaged 6.8 goals per game vs PO teams, while Philly was down at 6.0. That number for Pens is 2^nd largest for a high-seed in the last 24 R1 series. I looked it up to see what happens when high scoring meets low scoring, but can confirm that low-seed high-scoring vs high-seed low-scoring were all low scoring series. Whether that 5 minutes of research proves useful will be determined in time. If the total is 5.5, I’m taking the over, but 6.5 probably under.

Ottawa vs Carolina

If it couldn’t be Detroit in the final wildcard, Ottawa was my first choice, as they’re tied with Winnipeg for my 2^nd favorite team, but being in the Wings division presents a conflict of interest. Detroit out, Ottawa is now my favorite team in the playoffs, injecting some bias into my opinion. That’s why this series has been chosen as the thread open to free subscribers. The fact Carolina is only -165 against the last wildcard is a testament to Ottawa’s numbers, which earned a high score from my E[W%] model, but so did Canes. The average series line for 1 vs 8 is -270, only 1 of the last 6 was less favored and that was Dallas against Vegas.

Carolina is my series pick because my series prediction model says they’re winning 59% of the games, not because I’m purchasing sadness insurance or attempting a reverse jinx. My level of emotional investment is below that level. This fell in the 6-games zone, and also met the criteria for promoting to 5 games. By the way, if Ottawa had faced Buffalo, I was picking the upset. Canes present a problem for Ottawa, who produced great numbers with incredible shot suppression, just doesn’t feel like you squeeze Carolina into that vice, and Canes won 8 of their last 12 meetings, Sens 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Raleigh.

Not sure what to do with over/under here, as the Canes were a strong over team down the stretch, both sides don’t give up many shots against, but have struggled with goal prevention at various points in the schedule. My game one pick was under 6.5, just because I would like to see a game get played before leaning into overs, though now that I’m reflecting, these are both teams who give up low shots, but they tend to be higher danger when allowed. That doesn’t mean they’ll be trading high dangers chances back-and-forth, should be a fascinating series just from the rock-paper-scissors of it all.

Boston vs Buffalo

Of all 16 playoff teams, Boston has the 4^th worst win % against other playoff teams, they qualified by dominating on home ice, but will need road wins to prevail here. My ass is still firmly planted on the Sabres bandwagon, but my ticket didn’t necessarily include playoffs given how long it’s been since their last appearance. Several players on this team are playing their very first playoff game, which demands some skepticism the last couple months is transferable to post-season. Buffalo went 17-8 against playoff teams in the last 2/3 of the season (Bruins went 11-14), the series predictor model likes them winning in 6 games, so that’s going to be my pick.

Bruins won 5 of their last 8 trips to Buffalo, and Sabres won 3 of their last 7 trips to Boston, but a half that data Boston was a much better team, Sabres much worse. The historical data doesn’t necessarily reflect current states of the franchises, and I’ve discussed multiple times how Buffalo delivering so many winners for us in the 2^nd half of the schedule ostensibly turned me into a closet-Sabres fan. That said, at no point in that run did the thought cross my brain this team was surviving deep into playoffs, and was hoping they’d face Montreal or Ottawa just so I could pick the upset. Bruins however, are another team I was planning to bet losing round one, offsetting my Sabres doubt.

Looking at their over/under data, there is no firm strategy but leaning over 5.5 and under 6.5 early, and once we get deeper into this, a clearer pattern should be emerging. This also correlates to a potential strength for Boston, we’ve seen Jeremy Swayman steal a playoff series before, we’ve never seen Ukko-Pekka Lukkonnen in the playoffs. The two goalies finished the regular season with comparable save percentages, but looking at the last few years, Swayman is substantially better. Bruins also have substantially more team toughness, which can potentially swing a playoff series, but Buffalo does have grinders and a big defense, possibly nullifying that Boston edge.

Los Angeles vs Colorado

The LA Kings drew the short end of the stick Thursday night and will face a mighty Avalanche team in round one. My pick was made in the chat shortly after the series line dropped, and I’m once again tailing the series predictor model which called for a 5-game Avs win. Worth noting however, the Kings actually had a higher E[W%] score than I would have given based on the last two months, but that wasn’t enough to win support from the model. My brain is also anticipating an easy win, but there were some red flags that I’m choosing to ignore, Kings ending the schedule strong, but mostly against bad teams, the heater somewhat misleading.

The biggest concern is Avs struggling at home second half, going 4-7 in Denver against other playoff teams. Kings lost 4-straight games in Denver by an 18-5 combined score. I’m hoping LA struggling in Colorado nullifies Avs recent home downturn. Looking at their records against other playoff teams helps my Avs case because Kings went 5-11 at home, 4-8 on the road, and had a bad penalty kill. One of the reasons for the Avs downturn was goalies struggling at times (but played well more recently) and bad shooting percentage on the power play, so hopefully bad Kings PK helps pump some life into that advantage.

Kings only won 30% of their games against other playoff teams, which is the worst of all 16 playoff teams, but they did have a 50% even strength shot share in those games, just bad goaltending and low shooting percentage prevented them from winning more. I’m not even sure who the game one starter will be, Anton Forsberg substantially outplaying Darcy Kuemper and getting a majority of the starts last couple weeks. Colorado had a 56% 5v5 shot share against other playoff teams, and averaged a -167 moneyline, the most important variable for E[W%]. I took over 5.5 goals game one, but goalie play in that match will dictate choices moving forward.

Anaheim vs Edmonton

The malaise of the Oilers season start to finish failed building the trust I had in this team 365 days ago. Even then my series pick was Kings in 7, but that was “entirely because of the Oilers injury situation”, so they were banged up, and my preview noted I’d be jumping on the bandwagon quick if they steamroll out of the gate. I’m picking Oilers to win this series in 6 games because that’s what the model recommended. Actually, it met the criteria for promoting from 6 to 5, I’m just not 5 games confident in Edmonton. Once again, I’m a little nervous about the injury situation, wondering if Leon is fully recovered, but McDavid went nuclear to close the schedule, so that helps alleviate doubt.

Anaheim was a nice story this year and for a big chunk of that I identified as a Ducks truther, but they finished the season ice cold I’m feeling no warmth/confidence right now. That said, it would not surprise me at all if Anaheim won the series. I’m just trusting the modelling at this moment. Last 2/3 of the schedule, Ducks had the better winning percentage against other playoff teams, the reason they fell behind in E[W%] is because Oilers were favored in 56% of those games, Ducks just 13% and average ML vs other POT is the biggest variable in the model. We’ll see though, Ducks won game one and all my Edmonton confidence evaporates.

Over/under is also a question mark, because Ingram provided Oilers with quasi-reliable goaltending down the stretch, reducing over profitability. While Ducks were the opposite and their overs boomed. Over 6.5 is my game one pick -110, but need to see goals and/or shaky goaltending to roll that back game two. We saw incredible stretches of play from Dostal this season, but also struggled at times too, including recently (.837 SV% last 10 GP), so I’m unsure what to expect. They need to win the battle in net if they have any chance of winning this series, I just disembarked their bandwagon while losing 6 of their last 8 games.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

The other reason for speeding through the card is 7 of 9 games feature back-to-backs, a radioactive subset where I’m ostensibly throwing darts blindfolded, automatically triggering several red lights. No sense carefully aiming when the room is pitch-black. Not much else to write, except another reminder that free playoff plays will be dropping first on Instagram. Quite often, I’ll be posting my pick for the next game in Substack Chat shortly after the previous game ends, exceptions for late games and long overtimes. They will drop on Instagram a few hours before puck-drop, then other platforms at game-time.

NJ @ BOS

Boston won 7 of their last 10 home games, New Jersey won 6 of their last 10 road games, so this is not the fair line mismatch it would have been 3 weeks ago. My models like New Jersey and that’s backed up by profit scores, so I’ll take Devils ML +114. Confidence modelling recommended a 76% score, but I’m pulling that back to yellow, over 5.5 also passing testing and yellow lights. Best news is neither team plays Monday.

WSH @ CBJ

Washington won 7 of their last 10 games, Columbus lost 8 of their last 10 games, neither plays Monday, models-fair line-profit scores-vibes all leaning Caps ML, so that’s my pick. Confidence modelling even gave this a 74% score, but I pulled that back to 55%, barely green. Over 6.5 failed miserably and gets a red light.

CAR @ NYI

Carolina has begun mass resting players, but that didn’t stop them from winning 5 of their last 6 games, while Islanders lost 6 of their last 7 games, leaving me unexcited about either side at first glance. I settled on Islanders moneyline hoping that new coach bump activates, but giving this a red light. Over 6.5 had very positive signals and narrowly failed confidence testing.

MTL @ PHI

Montreal has clinched a playoff spot but hasn’t started mass resting, which might change now that Noah Dobson sustained an injury and will be re-evaluated in 2 weeks. That might increase organization caution with Carrier also injured. The Flyers will be back-to-backing, so this is auto-red light for volatility. I’m just taking the home dog +1.5 as a default but really want no part of this mess. Over/under also had strongly conflicting signals and failed confidence testing by a wide margin.

ANA @ MIN

Anaheim lost 7 of their last 8 games, Minnesota is hotter but at risk of resting their top guns. Ducks are likely playoff bound, but given how much they’ve struggled lately (losing to the league’s worst team yesterday), they have more incentive to spark a fire before game one. Models, fair line, and profit scores all leaning road dog, so I’m tailing on the moneyline, but giving this a red light because Anaheim is ice cold. Over/under had mixed signals and failed confidence testing by a wide margin whether over or under was typed into the cell.

COL @ CGY

Colorado won 12 of their last 13 road games, but Calgary won 7 of their last 10 home games playing for pride. The biggest issue here is Avalanche playing Edmonton tonight, already missing a few players with injury. I assume they would rather dress the “A team” against Edmonton then let the B team mop up the Flames. My choice was between Flames moneyline or +1.5 goals, ultimately settled on red light ML rather than yellow light PL. Over/under has mixed signals and failed confidence testing.

WPG @ UTA

Utah is a mass resting risk, Jets play tonight, so this is max volatility auto-red light. I’ll play safest with dog +1.5 goals, but lacking confidence. Over 5.5 goals on the other hand passed confidence testing and gets a yellow light.

PIT @ STL

Based on Pens roster management since clinching, the Blues might be playing Wilkes-Barre tomorrow, but STL is playing tonight, so this is radioactive red light stay away. I’m just putting a minimum bet on Blues moneyline but want no part of this mess. Over 6.5 had strong signals, but gets a red light too because Blues have good goalies and the baby Pens may struggle scoring.

LA @ VAN

The LA Kings won 4-straight and play tonight, while Vancouver has suddenly won consecutive games for the first time since Dec 20. They are not going quietly into the night or vanishing without a fight, but that doesn’t mean 2 games earned my trust either. I’m taking Canucks moneyline because I like +154 better than -185, but giving this a red light for BTB toxicity. Over 5.5 passed confidence testing and gets a yellow light.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

I’ve mentioned dogs surging final week of season, but that varies year-to-year. Last 3 seasons combined, it’s actually bad for big road dogs >= +150, good for mild dogs +1.5 goals. For sure if you’re betting dogs, +1.5 is better than moneyline, though I ended up with a mix and did take a few favorites. The best bet final week is overs, 77-57 in the sample, turning a big profit at both 5.5 and 6.5. This inspired me leaning hard into overs tomorrow, but once again, history is never guaranteed to repeat and this has been a bizarre season deviating substantially from past parameters values. Come join us in the chat if you want a sneak peak at the playoff preview!

DET @ TB

When this game was copied into my queue, my music player selected Glass Tiger “don’t forget me when I’m gone” next on shuffle, appropriate considering Wings will soon be gone from my daily betting analysis. My biggest issue with Tampa is resting risk and the -192 price tag, so I’m punting on the road dog +1.5 goals, flashing a double red light to stay away (over/under had conflicting signals). I’m planning to forget Detroit when they’re gone, you should too…

NYR @ FLA

Panthers won 7 of their last 10 home games, Rangers lost 7 of their last 10 road games, that’s why I’m picking Florida moneyline. I very nearly went with betting models V-1.5 just as a lottery ticket, but the fair line and profit scores made the final call. This still deserves a red light given that Rangers were nearly my pick and I don’t trust Florida. Over 5.5 passed confidence testing and gets a yellow.

CAR @ PHI

Carolina has already started mass resting players, but won both weekend games with a full press box. My indicators like the Canes here, but I have no idea who will be playing. You may prefer waiting until puck drop, but I’m contractually obligated to make a decision now, so will take Philly ML +114. It’s getting a red light, but confidence testing recommended yellow. I had slightly more confidence in over 6.5 goals, but it failed testing.

DAL @ TOR

Dallas Stars are already missing Heiskanen and Hintz, at risk of resting even more tomorrow, especially after Robertson was injured in a meaningless game last year. I’m also not green or yellow light confident in the Leafs, so I’ll reluctantly take the home dog +1.5 goals, red light because they suck. Over 5.5 did pass confidence testing and gets a yellow light.

MIN @ STL

Minnesota started resting on the weekend, and we could see several healthy scratches in this one. My pick was nearly going to be St Louis +1.5, but the resting starting is emboldening me to go Blues moneyline, which my confidence modelling scored green light. I’m leaving it unchanged. Under 6.5 goals failed by a wide margin, and I’m not changing that score either.

SJ @ NSH

Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, Nashville winning 6 of 10 at home, San Jose losing 6 of 10 on the road, so fair line and profit scores are leaning heavily on the home side, models like the visiting side. I opted for Sharks moneyline because +130 was more visually appealing than -155. That’s not a satisfactory reason to encourage tailing, so we’ll give this a red light. Over 6.5 failed confidence testing by a wide margin.

BUF @ CHI

If or when Buffalo decides to rest players for playoffs is currently unknown, and I’m naturally reluctant green lighting anything with final week volatility. That said, this checks all the boxes and Sabres have been great to us this season, so I’m taking a leap of faith they can dispatch the Blackhawks. Over/under did not check necessary boxes for approval, over 6.5 is a losing bet with these teams last 30 days.

COL @ EDM

Hard to say who if anyone will be resting in this one, but both teams being playoff bound may cancel each other out. Models, profit scores, and fair line are leaning visiting side, so I’m cautiously taking Avs ML. Colorado won 9 of their last 10 road games. Signs pointed strongly under 6.5 goals, but models (and historical results) have me going over.

LA @ SEA

New coach bumps come in all shapes and sizes, including the “delayed bump” where it takes a few weeks for the new coach to reverse course, but that’s what appears to be unfolding. Or they’ve just had a ridiculously easy schedule and are finally starting to defeat inferior teams more reliably, but at least Kraken lost 7 of their last 10 home games. Kings moneyline is my pick, supported by models but not profit scores, failing confidence testing, as did over 5.5 goals.

WPG @ VEG

Unclear if Vegas intends to rest anyone ahead of playoffs, but haven’t started yet. Torts may want his bump fully bloomed by game one, I’m just not comfortable with the -185 price. Models had a slight Vegas preference but weak, so I nearly took Jets moneyline but settled +1.5 goals instead because dogs are better puckline last week. Despite my desire to take mostly overs, evidence on under 6.5 was too strong to deny, but still failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

This is not going out as a free preview to free subscribers because there are no approved wagers. That would perhaps justify sharing the full card, but generosity and outstanding performance on those shared picks is not converting free subscribers to paid. But also, posts sharing all picks for free is the #1 entry point for new paid subscribers, so this requires finding the perfect equilibrium. Calibrating that optimal balance can wait until next season, because playoffs all picks and write-ups will be in the chat. All approved/caution bets will be shared shortly before puck-drop on social media, first on Instagram. The catch is, playoffs can be really difficult, and no guarantee what worked last 3 seasons will work again in 2026, my models calibrated on historical data.

PIT @ WSH

These teams are playing a weekend back-to-back, so copy-pasting my analysis from yesterday was considered, but I’m contractually obligated to share fresh thoughts. This pick was made, analysis written, prior to puck dropping Saturday, the biggest question is whether or not Logan Thompson will start tomorrow too, likely dependent on playoff chances end of night. Pens are 5-5 in their last 10 road games, Caps 7-3 last 10 at home, bad news being my terrible performance VML and HML with these teams last 30 days. Also, Pens are resting Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, Rust Saturday and no idea if they’re playing tomorrow, so I’ll put a low confidence bet on Caps ML. All this roster volatility makes over/under a stay away, but mass resting again would help the under, in theory.

BOS @ CBJ

Underdogs +1.5 goals have been my Sunday salvation last 2 weeks, and that’s the top position of my best models in this game where I’m cheering for both sides to lose. My brain only required a few seconds of selection deliberation, taking V+1.5, which arguably deserves a green light, but residual caution from previous Sunday struggles lowers overall card confidence. Under 6.5 had strong signals but no model support and gets a red light.

MTL @ NYI

Islanders won 6 of their last 10 home games and undefeated under their new coach (written before they lost to Ottawa today, but I’m leaving it in because it was supposed to help justify my pick). Montreal won 7 of their last 10 road games and already clinched a playoff spot. Models, profit scores, and the fair line estimator are all leaning visiting side, but I’m playing the new coach bump. Lack of supporting evidence forced the red light and I’m cheering for Isles to miss playoffs, biasing my opinion. Under 6.5 had stronger supporting evidence (and its Sunday) so that earned a yellow light.

OTT @ NJ

Ottawa won 6 of their last 10 road games, New Jersey won 5 of their last 10 home games, fair line and profit scores not leaning towards either side. Models like the Devils, giving us a mixed signal situation, so I’ll default to the home dog +1.5 goals, which is a good bet Sundays. There was enough evidence to support a yellow light for under 6.5 goals, but ultimately failed confidence testing, forcing red.

VAN @ ANA

Vancouver sucks, but Ducks lost 6 of their last 7 games, so I’m not paying -305 for their moneyline or taking them -1.5 goals. I’ll put a minimum bet on Canucks +1.5 goals, but flashing a double red light because dislike both sides, under 6.5 massively failing confidence testing.

UTA @ CGY

The biggest risk taking Utah tomorrow is not knowing who if anyone they might decide to rest. Even at full strength, fair line is showing a tax on Utah moneyline, and I don’t pay taxes on favorites, so declining to tail my best betting models. I’ll take the dog +1.5, a good Sunday bet, and insulation against mass resting. Over 5.5 had very positive signals and passed confidence testing, I’m just not sure that’s a good thing. Conflicting signals produces a better return.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Just a fair warning, the ML-PL Chat GPT ranking thread is getting slow and buggy, but there’s no point creating a new one now. Dying days of the season as playoff seedings get locked, star players start resting and big dogs get frisky. You don’t want to pay -300 for Colorado moneyline then find out an hour before puck drop MacKinnon, Makar, Necas are all taking maintenance days. One game last April Florida sat half their starting line-up against Detroit. It’s a volatile environment, so my general confidence is low. GPT wanted to green light several picks on the card, when I green lit none, but at least those promotions were backed up by my confidence modelling. My emotionally flawed human brain reigned in the values.

I manually downgraded a bunch of GPT values, but it basically just tailed my confidence modelling (which I also heavily downgraded). You may as well take a look at what GPT provided.

TB @ BOS

Tampa lost 3-straight and 6 of their last 10 road games, Boston 5-5 in their last 10, but won 8 of 10 at home. This is also confirmed to be Saturday, when Bruins are great on their own sheet, especially early starts. You may recall Thursday when I picked Tampa and encouraged you to bet Montreal, because I wanted something to feel good about if Vasilevskiy delivered a win to my fantasy opponent. Habs won. That said, my desire to see Boston miss playoffs means I’m going to be disappointed no matter who wins. That means I can just trust the models, fair line, and profit scores on Bruins moneyline, which unbiased confidence modelling gave a yellow light. Under 6.5 received a 29% score.

OTT @ NYI

Ottawa won 6 of their last 10 road games, Islanders won 6 of their last 10 home games, so we have a fair line pick’em with Ottawa a -125 favorite. Betting models liked Isles, backed up by profit scores, and they just hired a new coach. Not all new hires reverse slides, but if anyone can to do it, few better than Deboer. It would have been funny if Detroit immediately fired their coach and hired Patrick Roy, I just doubt Patty would work well with the Wings front office. I’ll take HML because it has supporting evidence on top of the possible bump. Unbiased confidence modelling even gave it a yellow light, which was not the case with over 5.5, conflicting signals, probably better to stay away except my rate of return on stay aways is higher than “strong signals”, so not sure what to write next.

WSH @ PIT

Pittsburgh won 5 of their last 6 games and clinched a playoff spot while Logan Thompson is battling for a championship in the subscriber league, giving me a conflict of interest. Making a decision here was very difficult, I also don’t want Capitals making playoffs. Temptation to reverse jinx both sides broke my brain. Models like Pittsburgh, profit scores prefer Washington, I settled on Caps ML because +110 is a higher payout than -130. This gets a double red light, over 6.5 had strong numbers but lacked model support.

EDM @ LA

The previously terrible LA Kings won 4 of their last 5 games, earning a brake pump on my big short position. Edmonton won 6 of 10, but Connor Ingram is nursing a minor injury, increasing Jarry risk. Models love the Kings here, but that’s not backed up by fair line or profit scores. Oilers also missing Draisaitl and Hyman, so I’m taking Kings moneyline, which failed confidence testing miserably, as did over 6.5 goals. I’m just physically unable to pick under 6.5 if Jarry is possible.

STL @ CHI

Seinfeld’s Law is now 1-2 on Chicago decisions, thankfully last game my instinct proved right, Jerry’s advice ignored. Prudence still demands some caution trusting my Hawks picks, but signals strongly singing Blues praise in tomorrow’s match. The only negative is my own bad VML performance, most of that from picking Chicago opponents. I was nearly tempted to take Blues -1.5 goals +180, fair line at +122, but I’m also getting plenty value on the moneyline. Confidence modelling wanted to green light, but Chicago caution continues. Over 5.5 has some positive signals, but failed confidence testing.

NYR @ DAL

The New York Rangers covered +1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 games, Dallas covered -1.5 goals in 2 of their last 10. Models like Rangers +1.5, backed up by line value and profit scores. Dallas is also locked into their playoff seeding and could start resting stars, so I’m not thrilled about the -205 price tag. V+1.5 is my pick, which confidence modelling wanted to green light, but I’m not even yellow light confident in a Rangers cover. Over 5.5 had some positive signals but narrowly failed confidence testing.

NJ @ DET

My green lighting Philly in Detroit yesterday was NOT a reverse jinx attempt. Flyers moneyline had undeniably excellent underlying numbers and that decision was made by unbiased inputs. At this point I’m excited for the season to end on no more Wings games on my plate, but contractually obligated to play out the schedule. As the Beach Boys just started singing in my music player “this is the worst trip I’ve ever been on”. I feel so broke up, I wanna go home. This game, betting models like Detroit, but profit scores and fair line strongly favor Devils. I’m taking Devils moneyline, which confidence modelling wanted to enthusiastically green light, but I’m flashing red. Pretty sure the ghost of Brian Wilson wants you to stay away, or you might find yourself lying in bed, just like Brian Wilson did. Over 5.5 was a different matter, VERY strong signals, with one of the highest confidence scores I’ve seen yet from the model.

MIN @ NSH

Minnesota won 5 of their last 10 road games, Nashville 6 of 10 home games, but my betting models have a strong preference for Wild moneyline. I’m just not willing to a pay a road favorite tax that’s not backed up by profit scores, so I’m playing the best value on the board, Preds +1.5, which confidence testing wanted to green light, but I flashed yellow instead, lacking model support. Wild are also locked into their playoff position and could start resting stars in these last few games, which is why dogs tend to do well last week of the season. Under 6.5 had some strong signals but failed confidence testing.

CAR @ UTA

Carolina won 6 of their last 10 road games, Utah lost 6 of their last 10 home games, models like Carolina, profit scores and fair line too. Canes moneyline was an easy pick, signal strength sufficient for a green light, but I’m assigning yellow instead. There is a potential conflict of interest with Vejmelka on my fantasy team, but he’s likely to be on my bench for this one. Over 6.5 goals also gets a yellow light with very strong supporting evidence. Both teams went over 6.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 games (one of the reasons Vejmelka likely benched).

CBJ @ MTL

Columbus lost 8 of their last 10 games (but covered +1.5 goals in 7 of 10), Montreal won 9 of their last 10 games, models prefer Canadiens, backed up by the fair line but conflicting profit scores. The biggest concern is that Montreal has clinched, Columbus battling for a playoff spot, so the desperation meter strongly favors BJs. The best value on the board is actually Blue Jackets +1.5 goals, so that will be my pick with a red light. Under 6.5 goals had much stronger signals, earning a yellow light.

CGY @ SEA

Calgary lost 8 of their last 10 road games, Seattle lost 7 of their last 10 home games, so first glance revealed no preference for either side, second glance adding no additional clarity. This is a genuine, “no idea what to do” game, so I’ll default to the underdog +1.5 goals. Confidence modeling wanted a green light, but uncertainty level leans red. Over 5.5 goals had strong signals and passed confidence testing.

FLA @ TOR

Florida lost 9 of their last 10 road games, Toronto lost 8 of their last 10 home games, so we have a classic “can’t bet both teams to lose” situation. Right now, my music player is blasting “train comes I don’t know its destination, it’s a one-way ticket to a madman situation”. I can’t conjure a better word combination to express my feelings about this game and you should heed that warning. The Sugababes are all still alive, so no ghosts hijacked the shuffle (Overload is on my favorites playlist). Models like Leafs, backed up by fair line and profit scores, so I’ll take Toronto ML with a big flashing red light. Confidence modelling actually wanted to score HML 74%, but I’d rather avoid a madman situation. Over/under is a hard pass, either side produced a massive failure on the confidence score.

PHI @ WPG

Flyers had excellent supporting evidence to beat the nosediving Red Wings, but lost despite earning a greenlight from unbiased modelling. Those residual signals are still showing strength against Winnipeg, except my own profit scores betting VML with these teams last 30 days suffered a big loss. I’m doubling down but not with a green light. This should probably be red light considering I really want Jets to make playoffs and have bias here. Under 5.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

VEG @ COL

Some of you may recall a subscriber prophecy a few months ago proclaiming “Minnesota will never lose again” then a butterfly flapped its wings, cascading into a Wild cold streak. That same prophet tried more Nostradamus cosplay with a similar proclamation about Vegas after hiring Torts, this one more specific than sarcastic, saying “Colorado too”. Alas, the lowly Seattle Kraken provided a healthy dose of humility to our friend before Avs could be vanquished. My problem with this game is Scott Wedgewood likely starting, allowing 2 goals or less in 5-straight, and on my opponent’s roster in the fantasy championship, plus Avs lost 6 of their last 10 home games. I’ve been sounding the alarm about high-altitude teams struggling at home in the second half of this compressed schedule, so this game puts me in a tough spot. My models like Avs moneyline, my heart wants to reverse jinx Wedgwood, but ultimately preferred +110 so took Vegas ML. Confidence modelling wanted to give this an 81%, but I pulled that back to 44% because it took me way too long making a decision. Under 6.5 also scored very well on the confidence meter and received a yellow light.

VAN @ SJ

Sharks spent most of the season in the upper-echelon of my profit rankings, but King Midas lost his magic touch last few weeks. My profit scores are red across the board, and it’s not from betting Canucks to lose. This is a red light stay away, my choice is Sharks -1.5 because this is a throw away pick, may as well take +114 instead of -205. This is also my best models largest position. Over 6.5 had some strong signals but failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

We had another Super-Tuesday yesterday; all those picks generously shared with free subscribers. I took the time to look up all the picks shared with free subscribers since the Olympics, 134 games in total, ML-PL picks going 85-49 (63%) (scroll through the blog history and free chat thread if you doubt the accuracy of that number) which also includes red light stay aways, not just cream of the crop, producing a big profit. Over/under is 68-66 for a loss in those games, but most of those were red lights anyway. If you’ve been playing along for free the last 6 weeks, you should have lots of surplus money to invest in a subscription. However, All my new paid subscribers in 2026 were people who recently started subscribing.

The objective sharing so many picks for free was boosting your disposable income and encouraging investment, but fertilizing the soil isn’t producing crops. Don’t worry, I’m not setting up a Scrooge McDuck heel-turn, and anyone wanting to continue cashing free plays has good news. I’m trying to build my Instagram audience, and will be sharing all approved wagers prior to puck drop on that platform. There will be a higher percentage of picks behind the paywall next season, but sharing nightly best bets is a tradition that will continue, not in playoffs because there won’t be any pick ranking. New ways are being invented to keep free subscribers engaged and enjoying content, because it makes me sad when any of you unsubscribe.

Speaking of that, I’m at 297 subscribers and slowly inching towards 300.

TOR @ NYI

Toronto lost 7 of their last 10 road games, Isles won 6 of 10 at home and just hired a new coach (one of the best in the league), putting them on bump alert. Toronto is back-to-backing, adding toxicity to this pick. Fair line and models supported the home side, but profit scores were bad, so HML failed confidence testing miserably, but will still be my pick. Under 6.5 had mixed signals, but faired better in confidence testing, just not enough for a yellow light.

CBJ @ BUF

Buffalo is playing tonight and tomorrow; tired home teams against rested visitors had been one of the hottest bets of 2026, but that’s cooling off nearing season’s end, visitors going 8-5 in the last 13 opportunities. My models love Columbus but are trained on historical data and sustaining a massive loss VbtbA in 2026. The best value on the board is Columbus +1.5 goals, so that’s my pick, but flashing the red light. Tail at your own risk. Under 6.5 goals had enough positive signals to earn a yellow light.

TB @ MTL

Montreal won 9 of their last 10 games, while Tampa is 5-5, so Habs should be a -186 favorite, not a +100 dog. Models love Montreal, as does fair line and profit scores, checking all the boxes for HML green light. Typing HML into my pick cell returned 47% yellow light confidence, VML 36%. However, I’m taking Tampa moneyline because I’m facing Vasilevskiy in the fantasy championship and desire something to feel good about if he wins. That’s a bad reason for you to tail. Montreal moneyline is a MUCH better bet. I came close to assigning a yellow light on under 6.5 due to strong signal strength, but failed confidence testing.

FLA @ OTT

Florida lost 8 of their last 10 road games, Ottawa won 7 of 10 home games, so Sens fair line is -300. Fair line on -1.5 goals is -186 (Panthers covered +1.5 in 3 of 10, Ottawa -1.5 in 6 of 10) and taking the Sens puckline was very tempting. Problem is, Panthers nearly beat Montreal yesterday, Habs > Sens, requiring a Nick Suzuki game tying goal in the final minute (you may recall me recently recommending betting Nick Suzuki game tying/winning goals in the final minute of late season games as a prop bet (if that is even offered by any books)). That scared me away from H-1.5, but not from Sens ML, which is supported by betting models, fair line, and profit scores, receiving 80% from confidence modelling (I pulled that back to 60%). Over 5.5 had positive signals but narrowly failed confidence testing.

PHI @ DET

We’re going on 2 weeks since last I looked at the eastern wildcard standings, so genuinely have no idea if Detroit has any chance, but assume they are ostensibly eliminated. Flyers won 9 of their last 10 road games, Detroit lost 8 of their last 10 home games, so Philly fair line is -567 and I’m getting +114. Models love Flyers, so do the profit scores, almost enough to justify green lighting V-1.5, but I’m happy getting plus money on the moneyline. Unbiased confidence modelling gave this an 88%, so I’ll green light, but pull that back to 65%. Over 5.5 had positive signals received a yellow light confidence score, but barely.

PIT @ NJ

Pittsburgh won 4 of their last 10 road games, New Jersey won 6 of 10 home games and earned support from my betting models. There was insufficient evidence supporting picking Pens, and I’m not -1.5 goals confident in Devils, so will take NJ ML. That failed confidence testing due to poor profit scores, but over 6.5 had very strong supporting evidence, earning a yellow light.

WPG @ STL

Jets won 6 of their last 8 games, Blues lost 3 of their last 5, but slightly favored by the fair line estimator. I’m nervous going against either side, but models like the Blues, and I’m performing better HML than VML with these teams last 30 days, so will take STL ML. Confidence modelling gave this 54% yellow, but I pulled that back to 44% red due to my own nervous energy making the selection. Under 5.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

CAR @ CHI

My terrible handling of Chicago post-Olympics inspired invoking “Seinfeld’s Law” if every instinct you have is wrong, the opposite must be right, hitting a longshot pick on Hawks -1.5 goals at +314. That law was enforced again next game, and inspired some of you betting that too. Sharks -1.5 lost, but they did win, just failed to score on the empty net. Still, you should have been warned that historical usage of Seinfeld’s Law did not reverse my terrible handling of radioactive teams previous seasons, and itself is a bad tailing justification. In tomorrow’s case, Hawks lost 8 of their last 10 home games, Canes won 6 of 10 road games, models love Carolina and that’s backed up by profit scores and the fair line estimator. Confidence modelling scored Carolina ML at a 55% green light, but Hawks radioactivity demanded red. Jerry would say take Chicago ML +190. You can listen to me, listen to Jerry, or avoid this game altogether. Over 5.5 had very strong signals and received a yellow light.

MIN @ DAL

Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games, Dallas won 6 of 10 home games, so fair line is a pick’em. Models are divided with a slight preference for Minnesota, while profit scores and fair line also leaning visiting side. This is a likely round one, game one preview, and I’m torn between Wild ML or +1.5 goals. Confidence modelling assigned a 76% score for V+1.5 and 58% for VML, but I’m not green light confident in Wild winning straight-up. The tie-breaker was +105 being more appealing than -238, but a yellow light. Over 5.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

CGY @ COL

Calgary won 6 of their last 10 games, but only 2 of their last 10 road games. Colorado won 7 of their last 10 games, but only 3 of their last 10 home games (one of those a 9-2 victory over these same Flames). The reason I’m not picking Avs here is because -340 ML is too far away from the -122 fair price. My models like Calgary moneyline, but I’m lacking tailing boldness given that 9-2 score previous match. I’ll take CGY +1.5 and give this a red light. I’d rather just stay away. Over/under had decidedly divergent signals and a stay away.

NSH @ UTA

Nashville won 6 of their last 10 road games, Utah lost 7 of their last 10 home games, fair line estimator thinks Preds should be a -186 favorite, not a +142 dog. My models are divided, leaning slightly Utah, but Mammoth ML massively failed confidence testing and disqualified from consideration. I’m taking Nash ML, but not green light confident, going yellow instead, while over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

SJ @ ANA

Sharks won 5 of their last 6 games, but 4 of those were at home and they lost 7 of their last 10 road games. They’re also playing tonight, adding uncertainty, but Ducks lost 7 of their last 10 games, leaking goals badly lately, and don’t deserve to be a -180 favorite. My models are all in on Ducks, but very BTB biased, while fair line and profit scores fully reject Anaheim as an option. I’m performing better V+1.5 than VML with these teams last 30 days, so that’s my pick, but low confidence red light. Over 6.5 failed confidence testing by a wide margin.

VEG @ SEA

Vegas and their new coach won 4-straight, Seattle lost 10 of their last 11 games, my models love Knights and that’s backed up by profit scores. There is even a case for Vegas -1.5 goals, but they just failed covering against the worst team in the league, so it’s too soon for me jumping back aboard. I’ll take VML, but confidence is reduced by fair line estimator, which is mostly using previous coach data to derive that estimate. Still getting green, but barely. Under 6.5 had some positive signals but failed confidence testing miserably.

VAN @ LA

Kings lost 6 of their last 10 home games, but won 3 of the last 4. Canucks lost 9 of their last 10 and are the league’s worst team. My preference is betting both sides to lose, but that violates the mandate. Typically, dog +1.5 is the default in this situation, but Canucks moneyline is supported by models, the fair line estimator, and profit scores. I’ll take a shot at +220, confidence modeling even wanted to slap a green light on this turd, but was overruled red. Over 5.5 passed confidence testing and gets a yellow light (signals not quite unanimous).

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

We may not have anymore standard betting reports, but we’ll quickly review a few notable stats from the week, with summary images too. It was a bad week for my yellow light ML-PL picks, but Chat GPT went 5-3 promoting yellow to green. My red light ML-PL went 18-16 and broke even, Chat GPT went 8-3 promoting red to yellow, for nearly a 70% promotion accuracy. My red light over/under went 28-25 and nearly broke even, GPT went 12-10 promoting my red to yellow. My yellow over/under went 3-7 for a big loss, so all signals pointing in one direction continues to be a bad indicator. Better return on conflicted signals, but a great week for overs in general, so perhaps I should be playing more macro trends.

BOS @ CAR

Boston only won 4 of their last 10 road games, but covered +1.5 goals 9 times, Carolina won 8 of 10 home games, covering -1.5 goals 3 times. My betting models are divided, but a slight preference for Bruins, except VML and V-1.5 are not backed up by fair line and profit scores. My choice is between V+1.5 at -155 or HML at -192 and I’m taking the better payout Bruins +1.5. Over 6.5 goals had positive signals but lacked model support.

CBJ @ DET

Columbus lost 6-straight, Detroit lost 8 of their last 10 home games, their fair line +186, so I’m not paying -125. My unbiased models have the most money on Wings moneyline, but more total money on the visiting side. Blue Jackets ML is backed up by the fair line estimator and profit scores, so that’s my pick, which should get a red light because of my flagrant Wings pessimism, except my unbiased confidence model scored this 63%, so I’ll give it a yellow light instead. Over 5.5 had more conflicting signals and failed confidence testing (which might be good).

FLA @ MTL

Montreal has already clinched a playoff spot by winning 8 of their last 10 games, so there is no “reverse jinx” temptation or desire to purchase sadness insurance, we can simply follow the signals. Models prefer Panthers, but profit scores and fair line eliminate them as an option, losing 8 of their last 10 road games and devastated by injury. Confidence modelling gives Montreal ML a 76% green light, but there’s also value on Habs -1.5 goals, so that’s tempting, but failed confidence testing. I’ll take home ML just to give this a green light, because -1.5 would deserve yellow at best. Over/under had conflicting signals because Montreal better under, Florida better over, I’m taking over 5.5 but it failed confidence testing.

PHI @ NJ

Philly won 9 of their last 10 road games, New Jersey won 7 of their last 10 home games, models love Flyers, backed-up by fair line and profit scores. All signs pointing VML, so that’s my pick. Confidence modelling even requested a 66% green light, I’m assigning a 55% green light, a barely pass. Over 5.5 goals even passed confidence testing, which doesn’t happen often because my bad OU performance is reflected in average confidence score. Half the score is “my profit with teams” plus “bet all (teams)” you see in pick graphics divided by two. The other half is complex criteria used by my Behaviorist model (discussed in the chat). FYI: This is the first green-yellow light combination, I had to make a new skeleton for this combo. There were a few games where I chose a red light over/under because I was too lazy to make the new frame.

TB @ OTT

Tampa won 7 of their last 10 games but only 1 of Jonas Johansson’s last 5 starts. Vasilevskiy is confirmed against Buffalo tonight, likely Jonas tomorrow, which is already priced into the line. Back-to-back radioactivity disqualifies green light, I’m doing a bad job VML and HML with these teams last 30 days, so I’ll tail my models on Sens -1.5 goals +200 because Johansson sucks and Ottawa is motivated. There’s some fire in that Bolts-Sabres series now, they might be banged up tomorrow. This bet failed confidence testing by a wide margin, as did under 6.5 goals (which had positive signals, hence why it’s my pick).

CGY @ DAL

The Calgary Flames recently won 4 of 5 games, but all of those were at home and they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Dallas cooled off considerably since their previous heater, going 2-7 in their last 9, but a majority of those on the road. My choice is an ugly one, between an overpriced Stars -250 moneyline and better-valued Flames +1.5 at -125, biggest issue being I’m performing better HML than V+1.5 with these teams last 30 days, but at least V+1.5 has model support, so I’ll stick with that chasing the higher payout. Over 5.5 had strongly conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

SEA @ MIN

Seattle lost 8 of their last 10 games, Minnesota won 6 of 10, biggest problem here being Kraken back-to-back, so green light disqualified. My betting models love Wild ML, but they love most BTB, and there’s a tax on the -250 line. I don’t pay back-to-back taxes and Wild only covered twice -1.5 last 12 games. I’ll punt V+1.5 with low self-confidence. Confidence modelling wanted to give this a 67%, actually backed up by my best model (dog lover +1.5 who came included with the Optimizer spreadsheet annual subscribers received) and aggregator, but I’m still pulling this all the way down to 44% because I’d rather a minimum bet. Right now, my bet size is 100% correlated to light color (I can increase auto-price on green lights but rarely do). Also, BTB radioactivity demands red. Under 5.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

COL @ STL

Blues just defeated Avalanche in Denver yesterday 3-2, with a rematch in St. Louis tomorrow. Avs have strangely struggled at home (as we’ve discussed often lately), but won 9 of their last 10 road games. Blues won 6 of their last 10 home games, and covered +1.5 goals in 22 of their last 24 overall. None of my best models like the home dog, so scratch that option. Colorado moneyline is my best bet with these teams last 30 days (Avs road, Blues home), and the fair line estimator even says I’m getting a little value. Given Blues just won the last game, I’m not green lighting the pick, but will give this a yellow. Under 6.5 had very positive signals and gets a yellow light, but “very positive signals procuring a yellow light” has a lower rate of return than “conflicting signals, stay away”. My confidence modelling scored it 40% red so I’ll stick with that.

EDM @ UTA

Utah won 5-straight road games and lost 6 of their last 7 home games, Colorado being the other high-altitude team with drastically better road than home results. Mammoth have not won a home game returning from a road trip since Jan 7. Before consulting models, Oilers moneyline was my desired selection, the biggest red flag being Hyman joining Draisaitl on the injury report. Utah has some injuries of their own, but not a pair of former 50-goal scorers. Models have a slight preference for Utah, but fair line and profit scores lean heavy to the road side. Confidence modelling gave VML a 68% score, but the Hyman injury and model preferences will demote this to yellow. Over 6.5 had conflicting signals and a stay away, but I’m taking it because I could have two goalies starting for my fantasy team and need some sadness insurance.

NSH @ ANA

Nashville is 5-5 in their last 10 road games, but won 4 of their last 5. Problem is they play LA tonight, Anaheim tomorrow, a no-airport back-to-back. That’s still enough to disqualify green light before digging deeper into the numbers. Anaheim lost 5-straight and 6 of their last 10 home games, allowing 24 goals in their last 5 GP, so my Ducks enthusiasm has diminished last 10 days (they are actually now my worst team last 30 days). That deeper dig showed a big tax on Anaheim ML and terrible profit scores home side with these teams last 30 days. I’m not paying a back-to-back tax on a cold favorite, Preds covered +1.5 in 9 of their last 10 road games, Ducks -1.5 in 1 of their last 10 home games, so fair line V+1.5 is -900 and I’m getting -198. That’s my pick, confidence modelling recommended an 80% score, but I’m demoting to 44% due to BTB radioactivity. Over 6.5 had very strong signals but narrowly failed confidence testing.

VEG @ VAN

Vancouver covered +1.5 once in their last 9 games, Vegas covered -1.5 goals in 3-straight, evidence the new coach is bumping, and acquitted alleged sex offender Carter Hart is back from injury. My betting models love Vegas -1.5 and I’m tailing, even lifting the green light ban on -1.5 PL. Over 6.5 also had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

My only “New Year’s Resolution” was to start paying money to advertise this site, and doing some podcast interviews to promote. Twitter had too many restrictions on promoted content and wanted you to set up a whole “ad campaign” that was way more complicated than needed. With no more fantasy reports, that’s a substantial reduction of my weekly traffic. Doing a marketing blitz now with my biggest draw wrapped until August isn’t maxing bang for buck. Also, my brain is filled with ideas, renovations, new models, the list of summer projects is growing, including overhauls to how my content is being presented/delivered.

Site promotion will wind down for playoffs, focusing on the content, and unleash the blitzkrieg in September when my fantasy preview material is released. Those posts tend to draw lots of Google search traffic, the draft cheat sheet got a few thousand views.

MIN @ DET

This game was copy-pasted into my queue almost the exact minute puck dropped on Saturdays Wings-Rangers match, and I delayed turning on my television until the Sunday pick/write-up was completed. I don’t want Detroit winning or losing influencing my decision here, which is already compromised by superstition and bias. Models are divided with slightly more on Detroit, but profit scores and the fair line estimator leaning Wild. Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games, Wings lost 8 of their last 10 home games, so Minnesota fair line is -233 and I’m getting -120. Wild ML is my pick, and my unbiased confidence modelling assigned a yellow light. Whether or not that’s sufficient to convince you betting too is entirely up to you. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away, I’m going over because not sure if this will be Gibson, who has started about 15 games in a row.

FLA @ PIT

The injury-riddled Florida Panthers won 3 of their last 4 home games, but 1 of their last 5 road games, while Pittsburgh is 5-5 in their last 10 home games. Models like Penguins, HML has positive profit scores, but big home favorites have a terrible rate of return on Sunday, and Pens are playing their 5^th game in 7 days. That’s why I’m taking Florida +1.5 goals, but don’t feel good about it and giving this game a double red light. All signs pointed over 6.5 but I took under because it’s Sunday.

UPDATE: THAT WAS WRITTEN BEFORE PITTSBURGH BEAT THEM 9-4. Maybe stay away from this one…. (I’m at least encouraged by “all signs pointed over”)

BOS @ PHI

Philadelphia is one of two teams with a day off Saturday, and that rest advantage is likely why they’re a -148 favorite, also why my models love Philly. They love every back-to-back. Problem: the fair HML is a pick’em and Flyers are -148, and I’m still refusing back-to-back tax, so will take Bruins +1.5 goals. Under 5.5 had mixed signals, earning a red light, I’m just leaning unders Sundays.

CAR @ OTT

Senators won 7 of their last 10 home games, Hurricanes won 6 of their last 10 road games, so the fair Sens line is -122 and I’m getting +105. My models like Ottawa, the biggest problem is their injuries on defense (losing 2 more last 2 games), Sanderson a game-time decision Saturday (he returned). This would be ideal conditions for a dog +1.5, but Draft Kings jacked up this line. Typical +1.5 PL price on a +105 moneyline is -238, this one -265. You all know my hatred for paying taxes, and -265 is not a fun number to play, but the Carolina moneyline is also taxed with negative profit scores. This was a difficult decision requiring additional deliberation, but I’d rather play Ottawa moneyline +105 than +1.5 goals at -265. This gets a red light, as does under 6.5, which had multiple conflicting signals but it’s Sunday.

NJ @ MTL

Montreal won 7 of their last 10 home games, New Jersey won 4 of their last 10 road games (but 7 of 10 overall), so Canadiens fair line is -186 and I’m getting -155. Models are divided, largest position NJ ML, but more total on the home side. I’m taking Montreal moneyline, but flashing the red light because home favorites perform poorly on Sundays lately. Under 6.5 had strong supporting evidence but lacked model support.

WSH @ NYR

This game was surprisingly easy to decide, but I’m also sitting down to write this after Rangers beat Detroit, so possibly some Stockholm Syndrome infecting my brain. Both are back-to-back, and we have a high probability of Shesterkin vs Lindgren. My models like Rangers and there’s some value on the moneyline, but profit scores favor VML. I’ll take Rangers ML, but given that aforementioned concern, will only give this a yellow light. I’m not green light confident in either New York team right now. I’m taking under 5.5, but can’t encourage others taking Lindgren under 5.5 if that’s the starter.

STL @ COL

After pointing out high-altitude teams were struggling at home in the 2^nd half of the compressed schedule, Colorado spanked Calgary 9-2, then lost to Vancouver 8-6. The big red flag this game is Avs being on a back-to-back, Blues rested, but Colorado has a tough game in Dallas then flying home. My profit scores home side with these teams last 30 days is atrocious, and Avalanche fair line is +150, so no chance I’m paying -218. Models like Blues moneyline, but I’m performing brutally VML with these teams last 30 days, so must pass despite a juicy +180. The St Louis Blues covered +1.5 goals in 15-straight games and I’m doing good V+1.5 with these teams, so will make that pick with a yellow light. Under 6.5 had positive signals and gets a yellow light too.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

One big announcement, all my approved playoff bets will be shared for free shortly before puck drop exclusively on Instagram. The word “exclusive” in this case directly applies to “free before puck drop” because all picks drop first in Substack chat, and there will be a designated free chat thread in the first two rounds. In the unlikely event Detroit makes playoffs, there will be 2 free round one threads, otherwise Edmonton or Montreal will be the free series. The top ranked nightly bet gimmick won’t carry into playoffs because there’s not enough nightly games to chose from and margins get very thin very quickly.

DET @ NYR

First game of the day is the weirdest. You can’t trust my Detroit advice, and dead musicians are 2-0 invading my music player dispensing betting advice when sitting down to write Rangers write-ups. I need to go with what works until it stops working, the next song for this game is deceased Chan Romero, Hippy Hippy Shake. It’s a perfect metaphor to describe me handling Detroit’s playoff race collapse, because I’ve got a bad case of the shakes. I can’t sit still. Not sure Chan (died April 2024), is trying to push me to either side, just warning you to stay away from this one, and telling yours truly to trust unbiased indicators over feelings, that written prior to model consultation. Also, even if dead musician ghosts are truly invading my music player to dispense Rangers betting advice, doesn’t mean I can correctly interpret their message. Maybe Chan is encouraging me to trust my feelings. He seems to enjoy hippy hippy shakes, and encouraging embracing. After checking the numbers, models like Detroit, but a line tax and bad profit scores, so this is not in the bag. In situations like these, my tendency is default dog +1.5 goals, but low enthusiasm. Just stay away. Chan might enjoy the shakes, but I sure don’t….. (over/under had mixed signals and also a stay away)

MIN @ OTT

Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games, Ottawa won 7 of their last 10 home games, betting models leaning Wild, but I’m performing very poorly visiting side with these teams last 30 days and the fair line is leaning home. I’m taking Sens moneyline, which my unbiased confidence modelling assigned a yellow light, but I’m knocking this down to red because Minnesota winning helps Detroit and my fantasy team because my semi-finals opponent has Ullmark. This might be a happiness hedge, requiring warning sharing. Under 6.5 had very positive signals but lacked model support for a yellow light.

COL @ DAL

After astutely observing the high-altitude teams were struggling on home ice in the 2^nd half of this compressed schedule, Colorado crushed Calgary 9-2, leaving me feeling stupid for yellow lighting Flames +1.5 goals. Next game Avs lost 8-6 to the worst team in the NHL. The good news is, this one is in Dallas where Stars won 6 of 10, Colorado winning 9 of their last 10 road games. Unfortunately, models preferred Dallas while fair lines and profit scores like Colorado, so this gets a red light, but I’m taking the Avalanche because Vancouver just embarrassed Nathan MacKinnon and “angry MacKinnon” produced excellent profit last 2 years when appearing in my game notes. Not sure if that’s a good reason in 2025/26, but that’s my justification. Under 6.5 goals has strong supporting evidence but narrowly failed confidence testing.

FLA @ PIT

Pittsburgh is 5-5 in their last 10 home games, Florida 2-8 last 10 road games, but also won 2-straight with half their roster injured. Models are divided with a slight Pittsburgh preference, HML backed up by profit scores. I’m taking Pens moneyline and my confidence modelling assigned a 66% score, but I’m bumping that down to 44% red light, because I’m nervous about this dead cat bounce. Over 6.5 had very positive signals but failed confidence testing.

BOS @ TB

Boston won 6 of their last 10 games, but only 4 of their last 10 on the road. Tampa is 5-5 in their last 10 home games, but 4-2 on the current home-stand. My models prefer Lightning, but there’s a tax on home moneyline that I’m unwilling to pay, so will default Boston +1.5 goals. Given home favorites are coming off a strong Thursday, I’m giving this a red light, but only by a few percentage points. Over/under was a bigger pass. Stay away from that one.

MTL @ NJ

Montreal won 8 of their last 9 games, injecting more profit into the career return of the words “reverse jinx” in my game notes, building on last year’s excellent season ending. New Jersey is hot themselves, winning 7 of their last 10, excluding the game Tom Petty’s ghost warned me to pick Rangers. Sheryl Crowe (still alive) just popped on to say if it makes you happy, then it can’t be that bad. Feels like a recommendation to continue my current strategy, which fits with “why the Hell are you so sad” because it’s an effective strategy. All that was written before model consultation because it came on right after the game was copied into cue. Best models in this line range are all taking Jersey, but MTL ML did solicit a 50% yellow light confidence score and will be my pick. I’m just manually downgrading that to 37% confidence because Sheryl Crowe isn’t qualified to dispense gambling advice. I am going to yellow light under 6.5 which had excellent signals and passed confidence testing.

BUF @ WSH

Buffalo won 7 of their last 10 road games, Washington won 7 of 10 home games, but blown out by New Jersey last game (where my Logan Thompson blow-up sadness insurance paid off), so we could be seeing Charlie Lindgren’s first start in 3 weeks. Models prefer Caps, fair line and profit scores lacking strong preference either way. I’m taking Sabres moneyline, but need to give it a red light due to lack of supporting evidence. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

NYI @ CAR

Islanders are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and had an epic 2^nd period meltdown against Pittsburgh March 30 that felt momentum killing in magnitude (that written before their Flyers loss tonight). The red flag here is they play tonight and tomorrow, earning no model support, so I’m picking Carolina moneyline. It gets a red light, though I just noticed every ML/PL thus far also received a red light and we’re running out of games. Not sure I should force a green light just for the sake of having one.

WPG @ CBJ

The Columbus Blue Jackets activated the new coach bump at an ideal moment to get back in the playoff race, but the diminishing returns are fully bloomed, losing 6 of their last 7. Jets aren’t bumping much either, winning 4 of their last 6, but losing 6 of their last 10 road games. This is a tax avoidance situation where I’m taking Jets +1.5 goals, BJs a little too pricey for the cold streak. Confidence modelling wanted to green light this, but I had a bad Thursday on confident V+1.5 picks. Modelling likes all of them.

TOR @ LA

Toronto lost 7 of their last 10 road games, Kings lost 7 of 10 home games, an ugly game I can’t bet both to lose. My best models in this line range have the most money on Leafs -1.5 goals, and I’ll take a shot at +376. I’m certainly not paying -198 for the Kings, not in love with Toronto either, so I’ll scratch a lottery ticket. Dogs -1.5 have produced net profit the last few weeks and I’ve barely participated. Leafs +1.5 is a smarter bet that confidence scores might have green lit instead of a very bright red. Over 5.5 had positive signals, but I’m preforming badly with these teams last 30 days over/under.

UTA @ VAN

We finally have a green light, decision made within a few seconds, Utah won 7 of their last 10 road games, Vancouver lost 8 of their last 10 home games, models love Mammoth, supported by fair line and profit scores. All signs decidedly visitor moneyline, confidence modelling even gave that a 74%. Should I be concerned Vancouver just beat Colorado 8-6? Maybe, but I’m excited to use the species I designed for Utah bet of the night images. Over 6.5 had some strong signals, but lacked model support.

CGY @ ANA

Calgary had won 5 of 6 games, but all of those were at home and they’re 0-2 on this current road trip, allowing 15 goals. Ducks lost 3-straight, but played a road heavy schedule lately, winning 6 of their last 10 at home. Anaheim would be a slam dunk pick here, if not for playing Friday. Tired home vs rested road are only 5-6 in their last 11 opportunities, but 9-2 before that. Models love Calgary, but are biased against tired teams. Fair line supports Ducks, profit scores don’t, so my Anaheim ML pick gets a red light. Over 6.5 had stronger signals but failed confidence testing.

VEG @ EDM

Oilers won 5-straight and 7 of their last 10, not missing Leon Draisaitl as much as expected and a big reason is improved play of the goaltending. Ingram is likely to be on my bench for this one, which might actually increase the probability of an excellent performance. Vegas won 2-straight, but against 2 of the league’s worst teams, so let’s not confuse that for bumping. Models support Edmonton, backed up by fair line and profit scores, Oilers are hotter so I’ll take Edmonton ML. Confidence modelling wanted a green light, but possibility of new coach bump (which isn’t a Torts common outcome first 10 games of his stops), forces the yellow. Under 6.5 goals had very strong supporting evidence, but not sure I can encourage that here.

NSH @ SJ

Sharks looked dead in the water, but suddenly won 4-straight, boosted by returning home, where they have won 6 of their last 10. Nashville lost 6 of their last 10 road games and 3 of their last 4, earning support from none of my best models, who love Sharks. Fair line says -150 and I’m getting -115, making SJ ML my pick, but the profit scores are very bad so this failed confidence testing and gets a red light. There was higher confidence (from excellent supporting evidence) for under 6.5, but also failed confidence testing. Sharks are getting stops, so their overs are cooling, Nashville strong under 6.5.

CHI @ SEA

Chicago lost 5-straight and 8 of their last 10 games, while Seattle lost 7 of their last 8, but most of those road losses. Big problem here is my brutal handling of the Blackhawks last 30 days, so this is double red light before even looking at the supporting evidence, which provided conflicting/negative signals. I’m going off the board and taking Chicago -1.5 goals +314 because the wise philosopher Jerry Seinfeld once said, “if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite must be right”. Not sure Jerry is a proficient gambler, so maybe stay away from this altogether. Over 5.5 had strong supporting evidence, but still gets a red light for lacking model support.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

It’s been at least 10 days since I looked at the Eastern Conference wildcard standings, but can gather from the scoreboard Detroit is screwed. They were +200 to make the playoffs before losing their last two against wildcard competitors, the silver lining being my opponent in the fantasy semi-finals has John Gibson. There is no reason to purchase “sadness insurance” by defaulting to their wildcard competition anymore, as disappointment is virtually guaranteed. This card was completed mostly free of personal bias, following the numbers, aside from the ghost of Tina Turner possibly nudging me towards Montreal moneyline, but otherwise accepting fate.

BUF @ OTT

Buffalo won 8 of their last 10 road games, Ottawa 7 of their last 10 home games, so Sens fair line is +122 and they’re -125. We just discussed dogs surging, and I’m getting a hot one here, so Sabres ML is my pick despite betting models showing slight Senators preference. That lack of model support is why Buffalo is getting a yellow light instead of green. Under 6.5 had very strong supporting evidence, but I’m red lighting all my OU picks on this card.

DET @ PHI

Philadelphia won 7 of their last 10 games, Detroit lost 7 of their last 10. My models like Flyers, fair line estimator supported, and I’m performing well HML with these teams last 30 days. Removing my own bias, all signs point Flyers, and my unbiased confidence modelling gave that a yellow light. Over 5.5 goals, however, failed confidence testing, models like over, recent results favor under. My own bias was removed, letting the numbers drive bet selection.

BOS @ FLA

Florida lost 6 of their last 10, but won 6 of their last 10 home games. Boston won 7 of their last 10, but lost 6 of their last 10 road games. Panthers have several key injuries, but that didn’t stop them from spanking Ottawa yesterday. My models like Panthers +1.5 goals, fair line is -900 and I’m getting -218, plus Bruins only covered -1.5 goals once in their last 13 road games. I’m still giving this a red light because of the injuries, at the very least there’s strong evidence to stay away from Boston here. Over 6.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

MTL @ NYR

The ghost of Tom Petty tried encouraging me to pick Rangers last game by invading my music player and selecting “even the losers get lucky sometimes” next on shuffle. I ignored and lost. If we’re letting ghosts pick Ranger games, Tina Turner Simply the Best just popped on next. Montreal is clearly the better team, winning 6-straight and 7 of their last 10. Sadly, my betting models prefer Rangers (who won 3-straight) and I’m doing a bad job VML with these teams last 30 days. I’m listening to Tina and taking the better team, but that failed confidence testing and gets a red light. Under 6.5 had more positive signals and nearly earned a yellow light.

CBJ @ CAR

Columbus lost 5 of their last 6 games, including a 5-2 loss on home ice against these same Canes yesterday. My pick for that game was BJs +1.5 goals, citing how they covered in most of their last 25 games. Then they failed to cover, and it lacks logic expecting a better result as this goes to Carolina where Canes won 8 of their last 10. My models are divided, most money on VML, but more total money on home side. Problem with Carolina is the line tax, -185 instead of -150. Favorites aren’t performing well enough to justify paying taxes, so I’m rolling back my Columbus +1.5 pick. Confidence modelling gave that 76%, but I manually adjusted to 44% because this same bet lost last game against same opponent. Over 6.5 was nearly given a yellow light by confidence modelling, but lacked model support and fell short.

PIT @ TB

Pittsburgh lost 3 of 4 before winning 3 of 4, Tampa 5-5 in their last 10 home games. The tax on the Tampa line eliminates their eligibility despite models liking H-1.5. Pens are great covering +1.5 goals so that’s my pick here, confidence modeling gave it a 79%, but I’m adjusting that down to 50% due to models supporting opposite. Confidence modelling loves dogs +1.5 goals if you haven’t noticed from my write-ups and Chat GPT keeps telling me I’m punishing the entire demographic way too much. We have very strong signals on over 6.5 goals, but I’m red lighting all OU today.

WSH @ NJ

Washington won 3-straight but only 4 of their last 10 road games. Devils won 6 of their last 10 home games, but dealt us disappointment losing vs Rangers. Big problem, models like Washington, fair line and profit scores like Devils. This is auto-red light. Yes, Logan Thompson might be starting for my fantasy team, but he also started 8-straight. Caps +1.5 has even more negative value than ML, because all 6 of those road losses were by at least 2 goals. Devils -1.5 is the best value on the board, but that drew a 29% from confidence modelling. It’s my pick, just rolling the dice on a +200 payout. Over 5.5 received a green light from confidence modelling, but lacked model support for yellow, making this match double red light.

WPG @ DAL

Jets won 4 of their last 5 games, and covered +1.5 in 9 of their last 10 road games. Dallas lost 6 of their last 7 and covered -1.5 once in their last 10. Fair Stars ML is -122, so I’m not paying -180. Models like Dallas, but I’m taking Jets +1.5 goals -175, that fair line -567. Confidence modelling gave that 80%, but I’m not prepared to green light this, especially without model support. Over/under had mixed signals and failed confidence testing.

VAN @ MIN

Vancouver lost 6-straight, all by at least 2 goals, and 9 of their last 10 road games (covering +1.5 only 3 times). Problem, Canucks play tonight, adding radioactivity to this contest. Next problem, Wild won 3 of their last 9, covering -1.5 goals zero times, 5-5 in their last 10 home games, so there’s a big tax on this line. My hard rule not paying back-to-back taxes is still intact, but this game is likely to be on my TV, and don’t want to be cheering for Vancouver to prevail. I’ll go Wild -1.5 goals, which will automatically sink the confidence score well below red light. Proceed at your own risk, over/under is a pass.

UPDATE: This write-up and bet selection was made prior to puck drop in Vancouver-Colorado. It’s currently 6-4 Vancouver at publication.

CHI @ EDM

Chicago has 1 win in their last 7 games and allowed 20 goals in their last 4. Oilers are only 5-5 in their last 10 home games, so we’ve got a big red flag on their taxed moneyline. The even bigger red flag is my awful handling of the Chicago Blackhawks last 30 days. They win when I pick them to lose, and visa versa when picking wins/covers. My models are leaning Chicago, I’m just doing a bad job V+1.5 with these teams last 30 days. I’m taking Chicago +1.5 and hate the pick. My confidence modelling wanted 67% but I bumped that down to 35% because Hawks radioactive, Oilers unreliable. Edmonton only went over 6.5 twice in their last 6 games, both overs by half a goal. Ingram is playing well, the only risk is Jarry getting this start. Oilers went over 6.5 in 8-straight Jarry starts. Ingram I’d take under, Jarry over, and right now don’t which is starting. I’m taking over 6.5, the tie breaker being I’m facing McDavid in fantasy and might start Ingram if he’s playing. I need a sadness hedge for both hurting my fantasy team. That’s a bad reason to tail my pick. If you want to play over/under, wait until the goalies are confirmed.

TOR @ SJ

Leafs won 3 of their last 4 games, and 4 of their last 10 road games, San Jose won 2-straight and 5 of 10 at home. Very similar hotness profiles, but complicated by Sharks on a home back-to-back. I’m taking Leafs ML to get the +100, but it gets a red light advising you to stay away. There were positive signals on over 6.5 goals, but failed confidence testing. Running Against the Wind just came on shuffle, an excellent way to describe my handling of home back-to-back disadvantages this year. Bob Seger is still alive, so unlikely a ghost invasion situation. That song is a great fit on my model building playlist, more so on the over/under side. I might listen to that on a loop rebuilding my OU models this summer….

UTA @ SEA

Utah lost 6 of their last 10 games, but won 7 of their last 10 road games. Seattle is returning home from a 1-5 road trip, but are 5-5 in their last 10 home games. Fair Utah line is -150 and I’m getting -135, supported by betting models and profit scores. My confidence modelling awarded VML a 74% score, but I’m pulling that down to 56% because my week is off to a bad start and my average confidence is lower as a result. Over/under is a stay away.

CGY @ VGK

The Flames fledgling heater was smothered by an Avalanche, losing 9-2 to Colorado last game (and I may have overreacted to Colorado’s performance). Most of Calgary’s recent wins were at home, losing 8 of their last 10 road games. Vegas only won 4 of their last 10 home games, so the fair line is -150, meaning -250 is being taxed, probably with everyone expecting a Bowness-style new coach bump (and not a Kings-style pot-hole). When Vegas wins, it tends to be by 2+ goals, so I’m gambling on home -1.5 here, but lacked the model support for a yellow light. My own confidence modelling is very punitive on big favorites -1.5 goals and gave this a 27% score which I boosted to 41%. Over 5.5 also failed confidence testing. Double red light.

NSH @ LA

Nashville won 5-straight before losing 3-straight, Kings lost 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10 on home ice. Models prefer Nashville, but with very weak support. Fair line and profit scores also favor VML, the biggest issue is that Kings are back-to-back, which seems to help home teams win now. Preds moneyline did receive a green light confidence score, but the home btb forbids approval and gets a red light. Under 5.5 failed confidence testing by a much wider margin, but was my pick for the plus money. Over had worse signals.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Free subscribers have been receiving lots of free bets lately and you’ll get the full Tuesday card with all the pick graphics and analysis once again. More gets pulled behind the paywall in playoffs and I’m really hoping the exceptional hit rate of those bets shared has your bank accounts filled with disposable income to invest in full access. There are no more “best bet of the night” in playoffs, but free subscribers will be getting the round one preview with my series and game one picks. Chat GPT won’t be ranking my playoff picks, because the environment is radically different than the data we’re currently using. None of those rules apply anymore. My betting models all have unique playoff-specific instructions, so whoever was hottest the previous few weeks loses all relevancy.

Last week was outstanding for underdogs, so the whole post-deadline favorites surge that history predicted never materialized. It was also a big week for overs, but I’m not letting macro conditions dictate these picks, aside from leaning slightly over and increasing reluctance to pay taxes on favorites. We’re also approaching the stage when teams locked into their playoff positions start resting players, which is why dogs tend to thrive in the final week of the season. That said, history hasn’t been repeating this entire year, so expecting the unexpected has exceed betting historical precedence.

Tomorrow’s Games

Not as busy tomorrow as last Tuesday, so this post is going up earlier. We do have two new Chat GPT ranking threads, separating ML-PL and over-under. If you don’t trust GPT, you can also see my own personal confidence score beside the GPT score.

DET @ PIT

We may as well address the elephant in the room first, Wings are now +200 to make the playoffs and perilously closer to contention elimination. It’s not potential Wings bias that red flags this game, it is Pittsburgh playing tonight, and home teams dominating and short rest the last few months. The biggest issue with this game is Crosby-Malkin status remaining unclear at the moment. Malkin isn’t playing tonight but was a full participant in practice, Crosby a game-time decision, but both could play tomorrow. Strangely, profit scores and the fair line estimator are leaning Detroit’s way because they’ve been slightly better on the road than Pens at home. Still, I’ll take home +1.5 goals, but with 35% confidence. Just stay away from this altogether. Models liked Detroit too. Over/under had mixed signals and also failed confidence testing.

DAL @ BOS

Dallas was among the league’s hottest teams but have since lost 6 of their last 8 games while Boston won 3-straight and 15 of their last 17 home games. Betting models like Boston and home moneyline is backed up by profit scores and the fair line estimator. This checked all the boxes for a green light, confidence modelling even scored HML at 64%, but I manually adjusted that down to 54%, just shy of the green light cutoff, out of respect for Dallas and my own desire they win this game. Under 6.5 had positive signals but lacked model support and earned a red light.

NYI @ BUF

The Islanders are playing tonight with Sorokin in goal, so the back-to-back immediately draws a red light regardless of the side I’m choosing. They could go back to Sorokin on short rest, but it adds risk (Rittich .868 SV% last 30 days). I’m still on the Sabres bandwagon, but given Islanders road proficiency, there is a massive tax on their -198 moneyline. I’m still refusing to pay back-to-back taxes, while the fair Isles line +1.5 goals is -400 and I’m getting -148. BTB forces the red light, but my confidence modeling really liked it (but with a tendency to love most dogs +1.5). Chat GPT might like this because I’m excellent at red lights +1.5. Under 6.5 had strong profit score support, but not models.

MTL @ TB

Montreal won 5-straight and 6 of their last 10 road games while Tampa won 6 of their last 10 home games, making the fair line a pick’em, which also eliminates Tampa moneyline -170 as an option. My models like Lightning -1.5 goals, but Montreal covered +1.5 goals in 19 of their last 22 games. That’s also why Montreal +1.5 goals is my pick, but lacked the signal support for a green light (confidence modelling loved the pick, which it tends to do with dogs +1.5). Over 6.5 had some strong signals but failed confidence testing.

OTT @ FLA

Florida lost 6 of their last 8 games and half their team is injured, so there’s no way I’m taking them. The bad news, Senators had no model support (best model notwithstanding), there’s a slight tax on the Ottawa line, and I’ve a little outcome bias, so Sens ML -170 gets a red light. Over 5.5 goals had stronger signals but failed confidence testing.

NJ @ NYR

New Jersey won 10 of their last 14 games while the Rangers are 7-7 showing a refusal to die. Even the losers get lucky sometimes (RIP Tom Petty, that song came up next on shuffle (from 1,100 songs) as I was writing this), but in this case the loser is lacking model support and sufficient profit scores to earn my consideration. Hopefully Tom wasn’t trying to communicate with me from beyond the grave through my music player with a hot tip to bet Rangers here. I’m tailing my models with Devils moneyline, but it fails to get a green light because there’s a slight tax. Models liked under 5.5 goals, but New Jersey went over 5.5 in 11 of their last 13 games. Over had strong profit scores and received a rare 65% score from confidence modelling. I’m not performing well enough top of card for over/under to green light any OU picks, so we’ll give this one a 54% final score.

PHI @ WSH

Philadelphia won 12 of their last 16 games, even formerly terrible back-up Samuel Ersson has 5-straight wins. Washington has been mediocre, better at home but the fair line estimator says Philly should be favored, that’s backed up by models and profit scores, checking all the boxes for a green light. Both teams are competing for the wildcard, so that eliminates potential bias (aside from Logan Thompson on my fantasy team, he has just started several games in a row and not a lock to play here, so I may bench for Connor Ingram). Though betting Washington to win was just my top bet of the week. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

CAR @ CBJ

Columbus lost 4 of their last 5 games and are 5-5 in their last 10 at home. Carolina won 6 of their last 10 road games, so the fair line estimator agrees they should be favored. Problem is, my models are divided, largest position V-1.5 goals, but more total money on home side. Neither moneyline is “structurally clean”, the best bet on the board is actually Columbus +1.5 goals, which they covered in 24 of their last 25 games. Fair line is -300 and I’m getting -218, confidence modelling gave this a 74% score, but manually downgraded to 52% to produce yellow instead of green light. Over 6.5 had positive signals and nearly received a yellow light, but fell just short. I’m doing a good job on 6.5 totals with these teams last 30 days.

WPG @ CHI

First glance I had no idea which side to pick, as I’m eager for both these teams to drop out of my daily life. Chicago especially, because they are my worst team last 30 days and I’m taking a giant loss both betting them to win and lose. Jets rank top 10 in L30 profit and won 3 of their last 4, but I’m playing the best value on the board, Hawks +1.5. I’m manually adjusting confidence down from 76% in modelling to 39% because this team is radioactive in my hands lately. Over/under is a hard pass.

SEA @ EDM

Seattle won 3 of their last 12 games, Oilers won 3-straight and 6 of their last 10, but still not a team I trust. Kraken lack models support and profit scores to justify a pick here, so I’ll put a minimum red light bet on Oilers moneyline, despite a slight tax. Ingram could be starting for my fantasy team, but if this were attempting reverse jinx (or purchasing sadness insurance) Oilers wouldn’t be my pick. Over 6.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

One content announcement, Sunday will once again be free for everyone, since it’s loaded with back-to-backs and probably all losers. Maybe that’s not the best marketing slogan, unders are still a good Sunday bet, it’s just my ML-PL are so terrible, you’re doing well betting the opposite side. Maybe that’s the slogan “HOCKEYNOMICS FREE FADE GIVEAWAY!” I’ll make a concerned effort to stay consistent, not switching up methodology to bust the slump, I’ll just keep being me, and you can show up Sunday and bet the exact opposite of all my non-under bets. We’ll see, Chat GPT is aware of the Sunday problem and my just demote the entire card (except unders).

FLA @ NYI

You are entirely justified not trusting my Islanders advice given my eastern wildcard emotional bias, but the Panthers lost 8 of their last 10 road games, have 8 important players listed as out or day-to-day. The Islanders fair line is -233 and I’m getting -162, supported by profit scores, the largest position of my best models (they do have more total money on the visitor), and received a green light from my unbiased confidence modelling (I’m downgrading to yellow because I don’t trust myself). Maybe you don’t trust my opinion here (I don’t either) but there’s strong supporting evidence. Under 6.5 was also backed up by strong evidence, so that gets yellow too. Only issue is that was priced -150 and moved to 5.5. Looking at their game logs, I actually prefer under 5.5 at +105 than under 6.5 at -150.

OTT @ TB

You’re right mistrusting my opinion (a common theme on this card), but Ottawa won 7 of their last 10 road games and Tampa won 6 of their last 10 home games, so TB fair ML is +122 not -175. Bias or not, that’s a very strong negative Tampa signal. My models are divided, but Sens ML was a close 2^nd place and supported by profit scores and the fair line estimator. My unbiased confidence modelling gave VML 53%, I moved that down to 49%, still good for a yellow light. There was more signal conflict on under 6.5 goals, which failed my confidence testing miserably.

ANA @ EDM

Ducks won 6 of their last 10 road games, Oilers 5 of their last 10 home games, so Anaheim fair line is -122 and I’m getting +120. Models like Ducks moneyline and it’s backed up by profit scores. This actually checked most of the boxes for a green light, but I’m assigning yellow because my best model and aggregator are taking Edmonton. Over/under, there is a significant tax on over 6.5 goals. Ducks went under 6.5 in 6 of their last 10, Oilers went over 6.5 in 6 of 10, but 4 of those by only half a goal. Edmonton dominance over 6.5 goals is losing momentum but still priced like it’s full steam ahead. This gets a yellow light, but barely. Losing Leon diminishes their scoring output and Ingram is playing decent, Jarry not playing much.

MIN @ BOS

You’re correct doubting the legitimacy of my pick given my frequently discussed eastern wildcard bias, but I’ve been riding Bruins at home since long before Detroit’s nosedive. Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games and a better team, but Bruins won 8 of 10 at home, so fair line is -150 and I’m getting +100. My best betting models like Boston ML (the worst do too), and that’s backed up by profit scores. This checked all the unbiased boxes for a green light (my own unbiased confidence modelling gave Bruins ML 67% approval), but I’m downgrading to yellow due to lack of trust in self. Under 6.5 goals had nothing but positive signals and also earns a yellow light.

NJ @ CAR

Devils are 9-3 in their last 12 games, Carolina won 9 of their last 10 home games, and these two conflicting heaters added outcome volatility before consulting models and evidence. The issue with taking Canes is their goaltending struggling last 30 days, Devils getting good goaltending. Betting models prefer Canes moneyline, but profit scores are split, fair Carolina ML is -150, and reluctantly taking a big favorite despite a big tax is a strong negative signal. Cleanest bet on the board is Devils +1.5 goals, which they covered in 11 of their last 12 games. That’s where profit scores are the largest, fair line -400 and I’m getting -142. My confidence modelling gave that 78% but I manually reduced that to 52% yellow due insufficient model support. Over 6.5 had positive signals (only lacking model support), receiving a yellow light by confidence modelling.

SJ @ CBJ

You should be skeptical of my bias towards this game’s outcome, but Sharks lost 8 of their last 10 road games, Columbus won 7 of their last 10 home games, so their fair line is -300 and I’m getting -205 (though GPT says that’s a negative signal citing line value on a big favorite). Betting models like BJs moneyline and that’s backed up by profit scores. My unbiased confidence modelling gave Columbus ML 58%, but I need a yellow downgrade because bias undeniable. Under 6.5 checked all the boxes but failed confidence modelling and earned a red light (checking all the boxes is not a positive signal for over/under (often means you’re picking up a trend too late) under 6.5 might be the exception).

DAL @ PIT

For a moment Dallas was the hottest team in the NHL, but now they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games, enough to declare the heater ended. They still won 6 of their last 10 road games and Rantanen joined the road trip expected back in the roster any game now. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 5-5 in their last 10 home games, Malkin missed last game with injury and Crosby left last game with injury. The possibility neither plays tomorrow is the primary reason I’m taking the cooling Stars moneyline, but lacking model support, so green light disqualified. It’s backed up by the fair line and profit scores, so sufficient confidence for yellow. Over 5.5 goals also checked all the boxes for approval, I’m just not sure that’s a good thing. My yellow lights at 5.5 totals have been bad lately. No Crosby or Malkin takes scoring juice away from the Penguins. I’ll still give it a yellow, but barely.

SEA @ BUF

WARNING: Tired home team against rested visitor. Sabres are comfortably above the wildcard, so no bias here, except bias towards Sabres awesomeness. My models still love VbtbA visiting side because they’re trained on outdated data. There is a tax on Sabres moneyline, but supported by profit scores. I’ll stay on the wagon, but circumstances demand a red light. Under 6.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

WPG @ COL

Colorado lost 7 of their last 10 home games, but I’m still skeptical they’ll stay cold at high altitude where they’ve dominated for so long. Maybe the compressed schedule is taking a toll, because Utah is also better on the road last 30 days (this was the last game in my queue, and it was writing this which had me look up the home-road splits of the high-altitude teams in March). Jets only won 4 of their last 10 road games, but covered +1.5 goals 8 times. V+1.5 earned a 76% confidence score by my modelling, but was manually downgraded to yellow. Under 6.5 goals also had enough positive signals to pass confidence testing and get a yellow light.

MTL @ NSH

Two hot teams collide in Nashville tomorrow, Canadiens winning 4 of their last 5, Predators winning 5 of their last 6. Obviously, I’m very biased about the outcome of this one, so doubting my opinion is entirely justified. Betting models are divided, but slight edge for Habs ML, not backed up by profit scores or the fair line estimator. I’m taking Montreal ML, but my unbiased confidence modelling gave that 34%. Under 6.5 had strong supporting evidence, but also failed my own personal confidence scoring system, so double red light.

TOR @ STL

St. Louis won 7 of their last 10 games, Toronto lost 6 of 10, and I’m taking hotter team moneyline. Fair line estimator says that Blues ML is priced right, but it lacked model support, and I’m doing a bad job VML and HML with these teams last 30 days. My own confidence modelling gave it a low-grade yellow, so I’ll stick with that. Over/under had significant conflicting signals, and earned a red light. One team hotter over, the other hotter under, adding volatility to outcome.

PHI @ DET

WARNING: you can’t trust my opinion. Not only because Detroit is directly involved, but they play Friday, so a home back-to-back a game-type dominated by tired hosts since Christmas. From a playoff race perspective, I’m hoping that holds, but my gut says 100% chance Flyers win (fair line only 70%). Still, Flyers fair line is -233 (winning 7 of their last 10 road games) but we’re getting +114. Philly checks ALL the boxes for an enthusiastic green light, even getting 68% from my unbiased confidence modelling, except the crucial VbtbA. All those get red lights whether involving Wings or not. Under 5.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence testing. There is a little goalie uncertainty here, they may be desperate and roll Gibson out back-to-back, but they’re already riding him hard last couple weeks. Talbot tweaked an injury yesterday but was a gametime decision to possibly back-up Friday (.889 SV% last 4 games). If it’s Talbot, don’t bet the under. Vladar vs Gibson, I like the under.

UTA @ LA

Utah lost 7 of their last 10 games, but won 6 of their last 10 road games. Kings suck on the road and at home, Mammoth ML was going to be my pick regardless of model advice, who sadly swung Kings. My confidence modelling gave VML a 61%, which I’ll manually downgrade to 55%, minimum green light threshold. The light is green, but the pedestrian signal is flashing a red hand. I’m a net loser on green lights under 58% confidence. Fair line and profit scores loved Utah. Over/under is a hard pass with very negative conflicting signals.

VAN @ CGY

Vancouver lost 9 of their last 10 road games, Calgary won 6 of their last 10 home games, so Flames fair line is -300 and I’m getting -155. This just lacks model support for a green light, my own confidence modelling going low-grade yellow. I’ll stick with that, but quasi-confident Calgary wins this easy. Over/under also hard conflicting signals and a stay away.

WSH @ VEG

Washington lost 7 of their last 10 road games, but Vegas lost 6 of 10 home games, so neither side lighting up the heat map. We did mention Vegas strong underlying numbers last game, getting lots of high danger chances, but very low shooting percentage, which probably won’t stay low (their low save percentage is bad across a larger sample). On the other side, Logan Thompson has been hot, but my fantasy team is on bye so no reverse jinx temptation. My models are divided but lean slightly Vegas, while fair line and profit scores lean Caps. I’ll take Caps moneyline to get +130, which even received a green light from the confidence modelling. Vegas had a much easier schedule this month as part of the western wildcard turtle race, Washington battle tested out east. I’m giving it a yellow light lacking model support, under 6.5 goals also lacked model support but passed confidence testing and got a yellow light.

Good luck!

Welcome to another Thursday on the heels of a unique Tuesday. A few hours were spent in the morning starting a new Chat GPT bet ranking thread with a new twist (outlined in our free chat), Tuesday picks had already been logged and sorted by the previous thread, this one was scheduled to debut Thursday. Shortly before puck drop on early games, I gave it the Tuesday card for ranking as a test run. It takes my confidence scores (which is manually tuned, but built an actual model to produce scores (half the time I’m not even changing it)) then modifies them into new scores with quantified language queues from my write-ups.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

One bug present in all the previous 3 threads was a tendency gravitating towards over-promotion. Mistakes get called out, or it has bad nights, and responds to criticism by over-correcting becoming too agreeable. I’m constantly reminding: “don’t try to make me happy. I track your accuracy and will be happy if you improve this order, I will cease using you if that contribution becomes a net negative. This was in the opening long prompt to kick off the thread, along with DO NOT SEARCH ONLINE FOR INFORMATION OR MAKE ANY ASSUMPTIONS. All caps doesn’t always get the point across. Sometimes a few dozen exclamation marks are needed too. I’m constantly on the lookout for rule violations and excessive promotion, but usually maximum effectiveness is the first week after they’re started, then deteriorates.

Rank Thread 4.0 received the Tuesday card, and boosted the confidence score of almost every pick and by an average of about 5%. It was told that my caution tier is the worst and you should be conservative about promotions. Demotions should exceed promotions over time in that tier. It promoted all 5 of my yellow lights. It promoted 17 of my red lights to yellow, 22 promotions altogether, among other rule violations from the founding prompts. I wrote a critical reply, it made a new ranking that barely changed my initial confidence score, then the power went out. I was left in the dark agitated this thread failed on its first card and trying to figure out where I went wrong.

Power comes back on as Ducks are beating Canucks at the end of the night, and it didn’t take me long to notice my picks had an exceptional night. GPT went 18-4 on those promotions, but that required me hitting 20 of my top 24 ranked bets (by my confidence score). Today I’m left scratching my head, what came first, was that the same over-promotion bug from previous threads showing up early, or did it legit figure out a pending legendary performance? Was it just extremely lucky this happened on a day my picks were excellent before consultation? I don’t know, but had to apologize and ask it to forget my critical reply before the power went out. I guess we’ll find out, because it did Thursday’s card too. I even wrote this intro before submitting the word file for language quantification extraction.

MIN @ FLA

The list of injured Panthers is growing, limping towards the finish line and possible lottery pick. Minnesota was my bet before seeing the line or supporting data, unfortunately it failed the qualification checklist for green and yellow lights. We’ll give this one a 44% confidence score, while the over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

CBJ @ MTL

My playoff race bias is neutralized by wanting both sides to lose, so if I really wanted to maximize sadness insurance I’d pick “tied at the end of regulation” at +310, sadly that’s not a bet in my tracking and not an option at this time. Columbus won 7 of their last 10 road games, Montreal 7 of 10 at home, so fair line is a pick’em. Models are divided, most money on VML, but more total money on the home side. I’m performing well betting BJ VMLs and MTL HMLs last 30 days. There’s a small tax on the Montreal line, and profit scores slightly favor visitor, so I’ll take Columbus ML, but with a red light. Over/under also had conflicting signals and gets a red light.

DAL @ NYI

This game presents a conflict of interest for the eastern playoff race, very much cheering for Stars to win. Both teams lost 3 of their last 4, Stars covered -1.5 in 2 of their last 10 road games, Isles +1.5 in 9 of their last 10 home games. Looking at this blind with no bias, Stars moneyline would probably be my pick because they’re a much better team, but my models really liked Isles +1.5 and the fair line for that is -567. It just fails the profit score condition, and given the possibility I’m only picking Isles so I’ll have something to feel good about if they win, it gets a red light with 43% confidence (my confidence modelling wanted to score this 75%, I manually adjusted it down 22%). Under 5.5 received a much lower confidence score as I’m doing a terrible job on both sides of 5.5 totals with these teams last 30 days.

PIT @ OTT

Penguins keeping their heads above water without Crosby felt like a no-brainer they’d be better upon his return, but lost 3 of their last 4 and 6 of their last 10. Both teams are competing with Detroit for the eastern wildcard, so I’ve got no horse in the race, aside from liking the Sens much more than Pens. If Wings miss, I’d much rather see Ottawa get that spot than Islanders or Penguins. What’s alarming is Pittsburgh allowing 21 goals in their last 4 games, while Ottawa doesn’t allow shots. Sens also won 8 of their last 10 games, but missing their top 2 defensemen. Sanderson could be back soon, not necessarily tomorrow. Red flags on both sides demands a red light, but Ottawa moneyline is my pick. Over 5.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence modelling. Strong under team vs strong over team.

CHI @ PHI

Philly won 6 of their last 10 games, but only 3 of their last 10 at home, while Chicago is 4-6 on the road. I’m leaning Flyers to win this game, but the price is wrong. My betting models are divided, but the largest position is Blackhawks +1.5 goals at -185, which will be my pick too but lacking sufficient Hawks confidence to approve the pick. It really depends which goalie starts for Philly, because if Ersson were confirmed, I might even be taking Chicago moneyline. I like this pick less if it’s Vladar. This gets a red light, but within spitting distance of yellow. Under 5.5 has positive signals but fell short of a yellow light. Goalie uncertainty is a Philly problem, Ersson overs are better than unders.

SEA @ TB

Seattle lost 8 of their last 10 games, while Tampa’s mini-slump is shifting, winning 4 of their last 5. News just popped up Hedman is taking a leave of absence, but they have an excellent record without him this season. The only issue with Tampa is the price, and price reluctance on big favorites is a red flagged signal. Puckline was considered, but that category is still quarantined from approval. I’ll just take Tampa moneyline otherwise won’t have any green lights on this card, my confidence modelling gave it 62%, I’ll give it 59%. If you bet $100 of every home favorite -1.5 goals last 30 days, you’re down $3,500. Over/under had very conflicting signals and a hard pass.

NJ @ NSH

Predators and Devils each won 7 of their last 10 games, so recent performance doesn’t give a strong edge either side, fair Nashville line -122 and it’s at -120. My models like Devils moneyline, but I’m performing much better HML with these teams last 30 days. With these conflicting signals, I’d rather take the bet I’m performing better lately, but red light (my own confidence modelling gave it 65%, but I manually moved it down to 43%). When I typed VML into the pick cell, it returned 40% confidence. Over 5.5 had positive signals and nearly passed confidence testing, but also a red light.

SJ @ STL

Sharks lost 8 of their last 10 games and Blues won 7 of 10, the fair line on Blues is -186 and I’m getting -148. Models prefer Sharks and I’m losing money on both VML and HML with these teams last 30 days. I’ll go with the hotter team with two scorching hot goalies (Hofer .955 SV% last 8 GP, Binnington .925). It needs a red light for failing the prerequisite promotion conditions, but feels quasi-safe. Good run Sharks, better luck next year. I nearly gave under 6.5 a yellow light for the positive signals, it just feels San Jose as a high variance team demands red. It was right on the border. Sharks have gone under 6.5 in 6 of their last 9.

COL @ WPG

At first glance -185 for Colorado road moneyline looked prohibitively expensive, but the fair line estimator says it’s exactly the right price. My models love Avs moneyline, but I’m losing money last 30 days on VMLs with these teams (more betting against Jets at home, Avs won 9 of their last 10 road games), failing to check all the prerequisite green light conditions. The good news, I’m taking a much bigger lost HMLs L30, so will comfortably yellow light Avs ML. Under 6.5 also had very strong signals and qualified for yellow.

ANA @ CGY

Picking a winner from this game would have been much easier last week, but suddenly Calgary won 4-straight, showing the fire still burns despite shipping out several key players before the trade deadline. They won 7 of their last 10 home games (including defeating Tampa), Ducks winning 6 of 10 road games. Flames fair line is -122 and I’m getting +124, it is the preferred choice of my betting models and has excellent last 30 days profit scores. I can’t green light the pick because Ducks are one of my teams and intuitively it feels like an easy win for them, but I need to follow where the signals point, and will give it a yellow light. Under 6.5 goals had positive signals but failed confidence modeling and gets a red light.

WSH @ UTA

Both teams lost 6 of their last 10 games, but the best news is my fantasy team is on bye so won’t be tempted by reverse jinxing, though in theory I’d have both starting, which cancels out bias. I don’t have a strong preference either side, but Washington actually checked all the boxes for a green light, well aside from my confident support. I’m taking Caps ML because I like +130 more than -155 and aforementioned box checks. There were positive signals on under 5.5 goals, but a lack of Vejmelka trust forced a red light.

EDM @ VEG

I’m not green or even yellow light confident either side will win this game. My models are conflicted, both sides struggling, but at least Vegas is dominating play, just very low save/shooting percentages. My models slightly favor Vegas, but fair line and profit scores lean Edmonton. My mind here is decided by the eye test; recently watching Oilers lose to Panthers and looked pathetic, Knights beating Stars and looking dominant. That’s why I’m taking home moneyline, but giving it a red light. I’m nearly contractually obligated to take over 6.5, but it failed confidence testing and had conflicting signals.

LA @ VAN

Betting Vancouver to lose is among my best post-Christmas wagers, next to Sabres win, but I’m having a really hard time accepting Kings -175. Both teams lost 7 of their last 10 games, but Kings slightly better on the road, Canucks slightly worse at home. Models really like Vancouver, but I’m not moneyline confident so will take VAN +1.5 with very low confidence. Probably stay away (<40% confidence). Not sure Kings deserve -175 against an AHL team. Over/under also had conflicting signals and a stay away.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

There is no paywall on this post, so everyone can see my write-ups and pick graphics. As you can see by the GPT stats above, we didn’t get a net benefit on moneyline-puckline last week but it was pretty good changing my over/under order. I have a new idea for bet ranking threads that I’m planning to start tomorrow. If you scroll up a few images, you can see traffic light stats, and GPT’s accuracy at promotion-demotion.

TOR @ BOS

Let’s start by saying I really want Toronto to win this game to help Detroit’s playoff push. I’m very biased and you deserve to know. That said, Boston won 9 of their last 10 home games, Toronto lost 7 of their last 10 road games, so fair Bruins line is -400. That’s why the profit scores all lean strongly home team, my confidence modelling gave Bruins ML 76%, but I manually adjusted that to 60% because trusting my judgement here is a slippery slope (GPT demoted to yellow, first time that happened). Do I want something to feel good about if something bad happens to Detroit playoff probability and that’s why I’m taking Boston ML? You decide. Under 6.5 nearly received a yellow light, but get red for Leafs goaltending issues, Korpisalo also due for a start, but they may roll Swayman to keep pace in the race.

OTT @ DET

You can’t trust my opinion on this game. 1) I’m extremely biased on the outcome and was convinced in December Detroit would hit an iceberg in March. 2) Ottawa is on a back-to-back and that’s suddenly my kryptonite. Ottawa won 6 of their last 10 road games, Detroit lost 6 of their last 10 home games. My models only like Detroit because they love every back-to-back, but taking a giant loss on those this season. I’m performing brutally HML with these teams last 30 days (mostly from betting Ottawa opponents, I’ve been shorting Wings for a few weeks now). I’m taking Sens moneyline, with a red light stay away. I do like under 6.5 goals.

SEA @ FLA

Seattle lost 7 of their last 9 games, Florida lost 6 of their last 10, but somebody needs to win this mess. Looking at the model results, profit scores, fair lines, Florida moneyline looks really strong. The problem is they have 8 guys listed as OUT-DTD-IR-SUS. Their first round pick is top 10 protected so they might just close out the schedule with their AHL team and that’s not a deep system. I’m taking Florida ML but low confidence because of the injuries. I will grant yellow light to over 5.5 goals, which had strong signals. If the Panthers win the draft lottery, that would be horrific.

CAR @ MTL

Montreal won 6 of their last 10 home games, Carolina won 6 of their last 10 road games, so I’m not interested in Canes -135 when that line should be +100. On the other hand, I REALLY want Canes to win this game, so my overwhelming bias demands a red light stay away. That said, the fair line estimator supports Montreal, I’m going a good job HML with these teams last 30 days, and my betting models (who had a strong week 21) love Canadiens. My own confidence modelling gave MTL ML the green light, so proceed at your discretion. I’m giving over 6.5 the yellow light. That actually passed my confidence testing which is very punitive on 6.5 totals.

CHI @ NYI

We have another personal bias alert here, but first let’s look at some fact; Isles won 7 of their last 10 home games, Chicago lost 7 of their last 10 road games. The fair line on New York ML is -233 and that’s supported by my models. That said, this automatically gets a double red light, and not because of my strong desire for Isles to lose, but because these teams rank #30 and #32 in my profit ranks last 30 days. Over/under is a HARD pass, yes, in all caps. I’m taking Isles ML, but you should be very skeptical of my judgement with these teams.

CBJ @ PHI

Flyers won 8 of their last 11 games, but 7 of those were on the road (note to self: Flyers won 7-straight road games) and this game is in Philly where they lost 7 of 10. I’m not sure that nullifies their hot streak, but Columbus won 7 of their last 10 road games, so their fair CBJ ML is -233, not -125. That’s also supported by my betting models and I’m doing well on that bet last days, so I’m taking VML. Despite those positive signals, this is getting a red light because I really want the Flyers to win and they’re hot, even if those were road wins. Over/under also gets a red light for mixed signals and bad performance with these teams at this total last 30 days.

COL @ PIT

Colorado won 8 of their last 10 road games, Pittsburgh won 6 of their last 10 home games and yesterday failed to cover +1.5 for the 3^rd time in the last 10 games overall. Given the choice between Avalanche -150 or Penguins +1.5 at -198, I landed on Avs ML. My models were divided, and I’m taking a loss on VMLs with these teams last 30 days (taking a bigger loss HML), so this only gets a yellow light. Over/under had conflicting signals and gets a red light, despite me doing a good job with these teams at 6.5 totals last 30 days.

MIN @ TB

Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, Wild won 7 of 10 road games, Lightning 7 of 10 home games, so I’m not paying -180 for Tampa moneyline. Wild moneyline is the best value, it’s the preferred choice of my betting models, so my pick too, even earning a yellow light by my unbiased confidence modelling. Over 6.5 was a different matter, that failed miserably. Stay away from that one.

NJ @ DAL

The New Jersey Devils are heating up, winning 7 of their last 10 games, covering +1.5 goals 9 times. Dallas is also hot, winning 7 of their last 10 at home but only covered -1.5 goals twice. I’m not interested in paying -175 for Dallas, so the decision is between Devils ML or PL. Models like New Jersey moneyline, I’m just performing much better HML with these teams last 30 days (aside from (but including) their home loss vs Vegas yesterday). I’ll take NJD +1.5 at -170 and give it a 44% confidence score, just short of a yellow light. There were positive signals on over 5.5, aside from I just had a terrible week on 5.5 totals and confidence modelling wanted to score a 31%. I manually boosted to 43%. A red light, but yellow was considered.

SJ @ NSH

Sharks lost 4-straight and 7 of their last 9, Predators won 4-straight and 6 of their last 10, allowing 3 goals or less in 9 of their last 10. Preds moneyline was an easy pick, but lacked model support, disqualifying a green light (confidence modeling gave it a 60%, I lowered it to 53%). There were strong signals on under 6.5 goals, but also lacked model support, so earned a red light.

WSH @ STL

Washington lost 6 of their last 10 games, St. Louis won 7 of their last 10 but rank #31 in my profit ranks last 30 days. Thankfully, 120% of that Blues loss came picking their opponents and overs, neither of which I’m doing here. Blues had model support, good profit scores, and fair line value. I’m just not green light confident betting against Washington (but doing well betting them to lose on the road lately). Under 5.5 received a red light, but did have some positive signals, just lacking model support.

VEG @ WPG

Vegas lost 7 of their last 10 road games, but beating opponents 149 to 98 in high danger chances. They are winning even strength expected goals 29-20, but losing 19-24 on the real scoreboard in those minutes. Not sure Hellebuyck is the goalie when you start converting those high-danger looks, but Jets could be the team Vegas goalies finally produce sufficient stops to win. Jets are 5-5 in their last 10 home games, so I don’t really trust either side. I’m just putting a minimum bet on the home dog +1.5 goals, but low confidence and a red light (my confidence modelling wanted score it 62%, but I bumped it down to 43%). Under 5.5 gets a red light, because that’s been a better bet with these teams last 30 days, but my best models are all going under.

LA @ CGY

The Calgary Flames won 3-straight and 6 of their last 10 home games (despite trading their best 2 defensemen), while Kings lost 3-straight and 6 of their last 10 road games. Flames fair ML is -150 and I’m getting +120, also the preferred bet of my best models at home dogs, though I’m posting a small loss HML with these teams last 30 days, so I’ll give it a yellow light. Kings are crapping out of the playoff race with Nashville winning 4-straight. I almost liked over 5.5 goals until seeing my result with these teams last 30 days, earning a red light.

EDM @ UTA

Just saw a news headline that McDavid left practice with trainers, which would be a devastating blow with Draisaitl out, but also entirely possible he’ll be fine. It at least murders my temptation to pick Edmonton in Utah tomorrow. That said, the information is already priced into the line and if McDavid is confirmed, it will move in the Oilers direction. The best news here is that my fantasy team has a bye, so it makes no difference to me if Ingram or Vejmelka start, meaning my bias is zero. Problem is, my models are divided and I’m doing a bad job HML with these teams last 30 days. Fair line estimator also says the Mammoth ML is overpriced despite the McDavid news, and that won’t get better if McJesus plays. I’m taking Utah moneyline but need to give this a red light. This also limited my confidence in over 6.5 goals, but that also gives me a hedge against McDavid playing, still a red light though.

UPDATE: Reports now saying McDavid is “fine”.

ANA @ VAN

Anaheim won 6 of their last 10 road games, Vancouver lost 8 of 10 home games, so fair Ducks ML is -233 and I’m getting -180. Ducks only covered -1.5 goals in 3 of their last 14 overall, so I’m not tempted to tail my models on the Anaheim puckline, but will comfortably take moneyline and flash the green light. Over/under also had positive signals, but fell just short of a yellow light in my confidence modelling, which is very punitive on 6.5 totals.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers regarding rest disadvantages, betting $100 every rested vs tired ML lost $630, or $900 PL -1.5 goals. Betting tired ML produced $900 profit, $1,400 puckline -1.5, so my tendency to exploit the disadvantage is a big reason for my Sunday struggles. My models are still trained on previous season data, so they’re leaning into the losing strategy, trying to swim upstream against a strong current. Looking at all the individual games/lines before consulting models and studying the team data, already decided there will not be any green lights on my end, but Chat GPT may still decide to promote (and did).

WPG @ NYR

The Rangers appeared to be heating up before losing 3-straight in which they allowed 16 goals against. That deflated my fledgling Rangers confidence. Jets lost to Pittsburgh today, also losing 3-straight after appearing to heat up. Could be Comrie tomorrow, but he’s played well his last 2 starts. My issue with NYR moneyline is my refusal to pay taxes on back-to-back advantages. I’ll take Jets +1.5 goals but need to red light the pick. Under 5.5 was closer to getting a yellow light but also fell short in confidence modelling.

COL @ WSH

As mentioned in the intro, I’m trying to avoid favorites tomorrow, especially any featuring taxed lines. Colorado won 7 of their last 10 road games, but Washington won 8 of their last 10 home games. My models are divided but leaning Washington -1.5 goals, I’m going to play Caps ML +130. This requires a red light because I’m performing poorly HML with these teams last 30 days and Avs are scary. I considered a yellow light on +1.5 goals, but decided +130 was more appealing than -198. Under 6.5 had very positive signals and it’s Sunday, so that one is getting yellow.

NSH @ CHI

Nashville played Vegas today with Annunen in goal, and Preds might have been my pick tomorrow if Juuse Saros wasn’t injured. Annunen has a .924 SV% last 4 starts, but we might be getting Matt Murray tomorrow, so I need to take Chicago and over 5.5 goals. Blackhawks have model support, but they are btb biased and home teams are a net loser on Sunday rest advantages. That and my weak support of Chicago demands a red light, the over also drawing a red light based on my recent performance with these teams.

CAR @ PIT

As we’ve discussed recently, Pittsburgh has been incredible covering +1.5 goals (on a 30-2 run), including a stretch of games missing Crosby and Malkin. They beat Winnipeg Saturday morning (pacific time) and hosting Carolina tomorrow, who won 6 of their last 10 road games. I’ll take the home dog +1.5 goals and giving it a yellow light, the last 2 games between these teams both went to overtime, both going over 6.5 goals. That had very strong signals, but I’m taking the under because it’s Sunday. That deserves a red light because it’s contrary to what’s been a better bet with these teams last 30 days.

VEG @ DAL

This game came up next in my queue during the 2^nd intermission of Nashville-Vegas, Preds winning 4-1. Knights dominated the first period and outshot them like 22-2 but came out of it losing 1-0. They got into penalty trouble and gave up some power play goals in the 2^nd, losing the game 4-1. Both teams are on back-to-backs, Stars will likely have DeSmith starting, and he’s sporting an .875 SV% last 30 days. Despite that, Dallas won 8 of 10, Vegas lost 7 of 10, so I’m taking Stars moneyline and giving it a yellow light. I would also give under 6.5 a yellow if not for DeSmith, so this gets red.

CBJ @ NYI

Columbus is playing Saturday with Elvis, Islanders too with Sorokin, but given the critical importance for both teams winning, probably will roll Sorokin out on short rest (both fighting Detroit in the playoff race nullifies my bias). Both back-to-back is a category I’m turning a profit since Christmas (all the profit on underdogs), unlike the rest advantages, and home teams are 16-9 in those games (helping Dallas tomorrow in the previous game we just discussed). That should have me leaning Islanders, though both sides are -110, so the opening line doesn’t favor either side. Columbus won 8 of their last 10 road games, so their fair line is -150, it’s preferred by my betting models, and I’m performing well VML with these teams last 30 days. Almost green light worthy but Sunday and this category leaning home side, warrants yellow. I like under 6.5, but my best models like the over, so that gets a red light.

TB @ CGY

Flames are 5-5 in their last 10 home games, Lightning 5-5 in their last 10 road games and playing Edmonton tonight. This puts us at a high Johansson risk, and Tampa is 4-7 lifetime on a road back-to-back vs rested home team with Johansson in goal. I’m not paying -170 for the Lightning in this situation but also have very low Calgary confidence, so I’ll punt with home dog +1.5 goals and flash the red light to stay away. Over 5.5 gets a red light despite strong model support because I’m performing terrible over 5.5 with these teams last 30 days and Sunday favors unders.

BUF @ ANA

Sabres won 11 of their last 12 games (game vs LA currently tied) both goalies with a .925 SV%, but playing Saturday while Anaheim rests. Ducks won 7 of their last 10 home games, but still a +150 moneyline on the fair line estimator, earning strong support from my btb biased models. If you look at my % bet last 30 days, it is 56% Ducks ML at home, 36% Buffalo on the road. That confused me because of my Sabres love lately, but Ducks played a very home heavy schedule and I’ve been betting them heavy at home. Tomorrow though, I need to continue riding my Sabres and will take the ML +105. Anaheim has some knockout potential, but Dostal has struggled last 30 days, if he even starts tomorrow. Under 6.5 goals came really close to a yellow light, but fell just short. I’m having a bad week on OU so probably better off red lighting most of these, except that unders are still turning a profit last 28 Sunday games.

LA @ UTA

The LA Kings play Buffalo Saturday, then fly to Utah for a high-altitude back-to-back. Mammoth are 6-3 HbtbA in their last 9 opportunities dating back to last season, but 2-3 in their last 5 (including a 4-0 loss to Chicago in the last one). My issue with this game is the size of the tax, Utah -175 when fair is +122 because they lost 6 of their last 10 at home, Kings 5-5 on the road. Both are 5-5 in their last 10 overall, LA playing a much tougher schedule last 30 days. I’m going to evade the tax and take V+1.5, but the altitude factor forces a red light. The over/under had mixed signals AND I’m doing a bad job with these teams at this total last 30 days.

Good luck!

Welcome to the 21^st Saturday of the 2025/26 NHL season, with only 3 more remaining (after this one) before playoffs. The finish line is in sight. we have a turtle race for the Western wildcard, a very competitive race out east, making me suspect the Ilitch family might regret their campaign to switch conferences, because it feels like they wouldn’t be closing in on 10 years consecutive no playoffs if they hadn’t moved, but hindsight is 20:20. The biggest news in the Hockeynomics Factory was hitting 8 of the top 11 picks Thursday (paywall is down if free subscribers want to review), getting crushed on everything under that, mostly over/under, which were 2-9. I’ve been red lighting most over/under picks since Olympics, so I doubt many of you are playing those aggressively. This has been a full season problem I’m determined to solve this summer.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

We’re running out of regular season and there will be a big playoff preview for everyone. I’ll share a pick for the first game of every series in my round previews. Picks after that will be going into a unique thread for each series, there will be a designated free series chat for the first two rounds (any series involving Detroit). You can even scroll backwards in time and read my chats from last playoffs, which might come in handy if certain teams play each other again (also unlocked at the end of each series). In terms of what strategy works best, I’ve been down a few rabbit holes trying to conquer playoff betting, but scripts seem to change from one season to the next. Each post-season is a sum of its parts and history repeats far less often than you hope. Thankfully, my betting models are all built with playoff specific angles to harness any history repeating that happens.

For a history of Twisted Sister parlay success, click here. No affiliation with the band. I’ll probably need to assign a new nickname eventually.

WPG @ PIT

Pens got Sidney Crosby back and driving to the playoffs, while the Jets are a stride behind in the Western wildcard turtle race. My models like Jets +1.5 and the chances of Hellebuyck stealing the game is a big risk. We just mentioned recently Jets won roughly 4 of their last 17 road games, profit scores and fair line leaning Pens. I like Pittsburgh moneyline -155 more than -198, so that’s my pick but with a yellow caution light. Over/under had mixed signals, but these teams are better under 5.5 than over 5.5 last 30 days. That’s my pick, with a red light.

VEG @ NSH

Vegas lost 7 of their last 10 road games, Nashville won 6 of 10 at home, so the fair Predators line is -186 and I’m getting +114. I was listening to the PDOcast with Dmitri Filipovic last night and he was talking to Dom about Vegas and it was mentioned Knights are dominating 5v5 play just not getting saves, which explains why they’re getting so much respect from oddsmakers despite the bad record. My models are divided, but I’m taking the home dog because of the profit scores. It will get a red light after listening to that podcast, but my confidence modelling gave this a 65%. I just manually punched it down to 44% shy of yellow qualification, but gave over 5.5 goals a 48% because that had more positive signals.

DAL @ MIN

Dallas won 7 of their last 10 road games while Minnesota is 5-5 at home. Karpizov missed the last game due to injury and the team is pretty much locked into 3^rd place in that division, so there’s no need to rush him back despite this being a marquee match-up and possible round one preview. My models like Minnesota, but getting destroyed betting home favorites lately, given home teams not winning at historical rates this time of year. Profit scores lean strongly Dallas and Stars ML is my pick, even giving this a green light despite lacking model support. Kaprizov day-to-day helps my confidence. There are conflicting signals on the over/under, Stars good over 5.5, Wild better under 5.5. I’m taking under just to get +100 but that failed confidence approval by a wide margin.

UPDATE: Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek confirmed out tomorrow (after I wrote that).

BUF @ LA

The LA Kings won 3 of their last 10 home games, Buffalo won 9 of their last 10 road games, so Sabres fair line should be -400, not -110. My betting models love Buffalo, profit scores and recent results lean strongly to the visiting side. I’ll take Sabres moneyline and give this a green light. My own confidence modelling gave that a 93% score. That is the highest since that score was created (but might be a possible red flag). Over/under was not that lucky, LA being a strong team over 6.5 last 30 days, while Sabres strong under 6.5. I’m taking the under, but that received a 27% confidence score.

PHI @ SJ

Flyers are 8-3 in their last 11 games and sticking around the playoff race (but currently +450 to qualify), Sharks 2-6 in their last 8, allowing 5+ goals in 4-straight. Fair Flyers line is -150 and I’m getting -105, L30 profit scores leaning heavily Philly ML, models divided but leaning San Jose. The dog is hotter (and won 7 of their last 10 road games), so I’ll take Philly ML and give it a yellow light. Over/under is a hard pass because Sharks can’t stop pucks, but Philly overs have been an awful bet last 30 days. I’m taking the under, but don’t feel good about it.

SEA @ CBJ

Seattle won 2 of their last 8 games, but that’s good enough to be one point back of the wildcard in this Western Conference turtle race. Columbus is much hotter, winning 7 of their last 10, so fair ML is -233 and I’m getting -185 (that moved to -170). The biggest problem is that my best models in this line range love Seattle -1.5 goals. All my best and worst are split between V-1.5 and H-1.5. I’m not taking any pucklines and Kraken haven’t been good enough to bet here, so will take BJ ML and give this a yellow light. I’m also giving under 6.5 goals a yellow light, nothing but positive signals. I also really want Seattle to win this game, so my bias >0….

NYI @ MTL

It would be awesome for Detroit’s playoff chances if both teams lose this game, sadly that’s prohibited by NHL rules. Models like Montreal, but the fair line estimator calls this a pick’em, so paying -142 for Habs ML is a pass. I’m just putting a minimum bet on Isles +1.5 goals and flashing the red light. Over/under has conflicting signals and a pass.

TOR @ OTT

This game is must-win for Ottawa and no idea how much fight Leafs have left, but they play tonight too, so this automatically gets a red light. The next red reason is the line, -250 is an ugly number, and my hard rule of refusing taxes on back-to-backs is still enforced. I’ll take Leafs +1.5 as a protest vote but don’t recommend tailing. Under 5.5 gets a red light but was a value play.

STL @ VAN

Blues rank #31 in my updated last 30 days profit standings, but betting their opponents and overs have done a majority of the damage. I’m actually turning a profit VML with these teams last 30 days because the Canucks are pathetic, but my pick still deserves a red light for my poor handling of the Blues. The good news, Blues fair line is -150 and I’m getting -135, my models like VML, and the profit scores are positive. Signs pointed to over 5.5, except profit scores. I’m taking a giant loss on Blues overs last 30 days.

BOS @ DET

The Boston Bruins lost 9 of their last 10 road games, Detroit 5-5 at home, so my fair line estimator says Wings should be -233. My models like Detroit, profit scores last 30 days favor Wings, so if this wasn’t my favorite team battling Boston for a playoff spot, this would be an easy decision. Unfortunately, my expectation Wings fall short of playoffs (especially without Larkin) prohibits me from taking them. Bruins might have a bad road record lately, but they covered +1.5 goals 7 times, so lots of close games, falling just short. Detroit only covered -1.5 in 3 of their last 10 home games, so I’ll make Boston +1.5 my pick, but requires a red light because I’m doing a terrible job handling my favorite team last 30 days. Over/under was tough because Wings are excellent under 5.5 and Boston over 5.5.

TB @ EDM

Tampa has 1 win against a playoff team in their last 14 games, and that was Detroit who is barely hanging on to a wildcard. Oilers haven’t been much better, going 5-5 last 10 and losing Leon for the regular season. It was almost tempting taking Oilers ML +120 when it should be -120, but I’m also not touching this team (except the over) if this is Jarry starting. Ingram will be on my fantasy bench. I watched the first period of Oilers-Panthers and Edmonton looked brutal, the TV got turned off because Ingram was starting for my fantasy team and it was painful to witness (he wasn’t the reason they were losing). This is a stay away, but I’m going to take a chance on Lightning -1.5 goals at +180. Call it a hunch. Models like Tampa moneyline, but not supported by fair line or profit scores. My worst models in this line range like the same bet as me. I will give over 6.5 a yellow, despite Oilers going under 6.5 in 3 of their last 4. I’m still way ahead on Oilers overs last 30 days despite a few misses lately.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

As those of you reading all my write-ups lately know I’ve been leaning heavily on the fair line estimator. If the fair line is -186 and I’m getting -120, that’s positive value and yielding good returns this season. However, long-time readers know all about my betting model “Shorting Value” which loves negative value. That model has been my champion since I started building and tracking betting models, until this season when it’s among the worst (parity is the prime suspect). Well, I just had a bad week on confident picks, great week on unconfident picks, and Shorting Value is heating up. My old theory behind the success of negative value (I’m getting -186 but it should be -120) is oddsmakers know something I don’t.

Last week is a small sample and might just be a random convergence of underdog luck, so I’m not abandoning positive value as a strong indicator, but if that’s flipped back to historical levels down the stretch, we’ll know soon enough. If that’s the case, then Chat GPT studying my last 200 games of writing and green lighting positive value will have negative consequences.

NYI @ OTT

Both these teams won 7 of their last 10 games, but Islanders slightly better in last 10 on the road, so favored by my fair line estimator. Sens covered +1.5 goals in 15-straight games, so even their 4 Ls in that span were close games. Both are battling to make playoffs and desperately need this win. The biggest issue is that Ottawa is back-to-backing, and tired home teams vs rested visitor won 8 of the last 10. While all signs are point to the Islanders, this is auto-red light because VbtbA. I’m taking Isles moneyline, but very low confidence. Over 5.5 also a stay-away.

WPG @ BOS

Boston’s home winning streak snapped at lucky 13, but they still won 13 of their last 14 home games. Jets won 4 of their last 17 road games. My betting models are divided but my brain is not. Bruins moneyline is my pick and it’s getting a green light. My only concern is Winnipeg winning helps Detroit playoff chances, hard to say with certainty how much that swayed my enthusiasm. But you can see the positive signals on the graphic below. Over/under had more conflicting signals and earned a red light, thought I’m doing a good job at 5.5 totals with these teams last 30 days.

NYR @ CBJ

Rangers won 6 of their last 9 games, but play tonight and will be on a back-to-back tomorrow. That automatically disqualifies a green light. Also helping New York is Quick starting tonight, so the elite goalie starts tomorrow. At least I’m performing well betting HMLs with these teams last 30 days, so will yellow light Blue Jackets moneyline, another red flag being an expensive line and favorites haven’t performed well enough lately to justify high taxes. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away (although me writing that lately may be generating positive returns).

MTL @ DET

Detroit won 5 of their last 10 home games, Montreal 5 of 10 road games, so fair line calls a pick’em and oddsmakers do too. My models are divided, but prefer Detroit +1.5 goals. My experience last few years in March with these two teams strongly favor a Habs win, but my own bias prohibits a green or yellow light. Betting against Detroit pushing for playoffs isn’t really a “reverse jinx” like I think my pick impacts outcome, rather it’s more like sadness insurance, because winning the pick offsets feelings of disappointment. Losing the pick AND Detroit losing is double the negative feelings. Good news: anytime that creeps into my decision-making, you’re told. We had very positive signals on over 5.5 goals, so that does get a yellow light.

CHI @ MIN

The Minnesota Wild lost 6 of their last 10 games and just played Chicago, squeaking out a 4-3 win in overtime, their previous game vs Hawks Jan 31 was a 4-3 shootout win. While I’m not exactly riding high on Chicago confidence right now (they lost 8 of their last 10 road games), I’m not paying -245 for slumping Minnesota. My models support Chicago, but they’re my worst team to bet since Olympics, dead last, big loss betting them to both win and lose. That’s why this deserves a double red light, but the fair line estimator thinks Hawks +1.5 has a little value, so that will be my pick by default. Over/under had conflicting signals.

SEA @ NSH

Seattle lost 6 of their last 10 road games, Nashville won 6 of 10 at home. My models like Preds PL but they only covered -1.5 goals in 3 of their last 16, so I’m not tailing that. Seattle +1.5 was nearly my pick, but I’m performing very poorly V+1.5 with these teams last 30 days, better on HML, though still a net loser. I’ll take Preds moneyline, but not strong enough for a green light. There was nothing but positive signals on over 5.5 (aside from my hottest model (Days of our Weeks) taking under 5.5), so that gets a yellow too.

FLA @ EDM

Leon Draisaitl is out until playoffs, if the Oilers even qualify. Florida isn’t any better off, with Marchand and Reinhart on the shelf. Panthers lost 7 of their last 10 road games (most notably defeated by the pathetic Canucks last night) while Oilers won 6 of their last 10 home games and still have McDavid to lean on. My models are divided, but fair line and profit scores last 30 days favor Edmonton. I’ll take Oilers moneyline and give it a yellow light. Over 6.5 nearly received a yellow too, but both teams are missing significant scoring punch, which in theory makes it less likely both sides score, so we’ll give that a red.

BUF @ SJ

The Buffalo Sabres won 9 of their last 10 games and covered +1.5 goals in 26 of their last 28. The Sharks are 5-5 in their last 10, but have some bite left, dishing out a couple big upsets last week. They’re better at home, but Sabres are awesome on the road, so Sharks didn’t solicit much temptation at first glance, and second glance revealed strong model support, fair line value, and very positive profit scores last 30 days. We also had very strong signals on under 6.5 goals, but because Sharks are a high variance team, red light is probably prudent.

TB @ VAN

Both teams lost 7 of their last 10 games, so paying -278 for Tampa moneyline just isn’t worth the price, especially given the likelihood Johansson is starting (.854 SV% last 3 GP). Vancouver also hasn’t beaten a playoff team since January, only beating 1 playoff team in their last 28 games. This game took me the longest to deliberate, trying to decide which side I hate least. Ultimately, my betting models prefer Tampa, so I’ll roll the dice -1.5 goals, but that earned a 25% confidence score by my confidence modelling. If I type H+1.5 into my pick cell, the confidence score would be 54%. That “modelling” is just my starting estimate. The final recorded number is moderated by me, usually not far away from the initial estimate, often exactly the same. I’m slightly more confident in over 6.5 goals, but still a red light.

UTA @ VEG

Utah lost 4 of their last 5 games, but won 6 of 10 road games while Vegas lost 6 of their last 10 at home. My betting models prefer the Knights but fair line and profit scores last 30 days prevent me from taking Vegas. I’m a little nervous about the prices oddsmakers are charging for Vegas lately, like they know this team is about to heat up. It was confusing they were favored against Buffalo, the hottest team in the league. I’m taking Mammoth moneyline and giving it a yellow light. They had a big win against Dallas last game and I’m hopeful the slump was busted. Over/under is another “conflicting signals stay away”.

PHI @ LA

Flyers won 6 of their last 10 road games, Kings lost 7 of their last 10 home games, but Flyers are playing Anaheim tonight, so this is a red-light back-to-back. I’m just not paying -162 for LA when the fair line is +186. Hopefully negative value isn’t good again, but I’m taking Flyers +1.5 goals, minimum bet. Over/under had conflicting signals, but I’m taking under 6.5 because I’m cheering for a high scoring game. My fantasy opponent has these goalies, so under 6.5 deserves a red light. LA goalies have not played well post-Olympics.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

The new thread has 155 post-Olympics games, the full spreadsheet with all my results, and all my pick write-ups. It will sort all the write-ups into a spreadsheet form and match to the spreadsheet with all my betting results. It starts looking for language differences between winning and losing picks, sorting by different types of games, looking for anything that differentiates between good-bad. It also has the results of betting every outcome in that span, and my performance at each type of bet. It measures my performance on each team and bet type, but that’s information I’m looking at when picks too, accounted for in my own confidence modelling.

PAYWALL REMOVED AFTER GAMES END

NJ @ NYR

New Jersey won 6 of their last 8 games, but 11 points back of the wildcard all but eliminates them from making playoffs. Rangers are in a similar boat, winning 5 of their last 8 GP, but 6 PTS behind the Devils and no chance at playoffs. Given my awful performance handling New Jersey since the Olympics, this automatically earns a double red light, but my models like Devils moneyline and I’m getting a little bit of value, better last 30 days profit scores, so NJD ML is my pick. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

PIT @ CAR

The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered +1.5 goals in 29 of their last 31 games. Carolina will be on a back-to-back tomorrow, so it’s disqualified from a green light, but the fair line is -567 and I’m getting -175, which is the best value on the board. They recently played in Carolina without Crosby or Malkin and pushed them to a shootout, so they’re a good match for the Canes and Malkin is back. Over 6.5 goals also received strong support, a bet I’m performing strong with these teams last 30 days, both suddenly struggling at goal prevention.

OTT @ WSH

Ottawa won 5 of their last 6 games, Washington lost 5 of their last 7 games, both battling to stay alive in the wildcard race. Ottawa was an easy pick for me here, but lacked model support, so eliminated from green light contention. Capitals have been among my worst teams all season, but not since the Olympics. They are currently #8 in my profit ranks since Feb 25, so auto-quarantine no longer applies, but caution still a safe emotion. The biggest red flag from your perspective is that I really want Washington to win this to help Detroit’s playoff push and my fantasy team (Logan Thompson). Reverse jinxing may have creeped into my decision-making, which always requires full disclosure. Over/under had conflicting signals and is a stay away.

DAL @ COL

Dallas is only a few points behind Colorado for the division lead, so this is a huge match in their concurrent quests to avoid Minnesota in round one. My models are leaning Colorado, who only won 4 of their last 10 home games while Stars won 6 of 10 road games. That’s probably why my profit scores are leaning heavily VML. Since the fair line is -150, I’m getting +136 and Stars are the hotter team, they are my pick in this one, but only gets a yellow caution light without model support. There were conflicting signals on the over/under, procuring a red light.

STL @ CGY

St Louis won 7 of their last 10 games, Calgary lost 8 of their last 10 with an easier schedule. Flames goalies are struggling, Blues goalies are hot. My models are leaning into Flames, especially +1.5 goals, but looking at recent records and profit scores, Blues earned my loyalty. That’s why the over/under is a stay away, Blues are cashing lots of unders lately, Flames lots of overs. Blues allowed 3 goals or less in 9 of their last 10 games. Blues also covered +1.5 in 9 of their last 10 road games. I’m confident enough taking moneyline, but lack of model support prevents a green light.

PHI @ ANA

Both teams won 6 of their last 10 games and generally that type of equality would push me towards the dog. My issue with the Flyers is Ersson risk, though he has played well his last 2 starts. I’m also more firmly planted on the Ducks bandwagon and they won 8 of their last 10 home games, so fair line is -150, which is very close to the actual line. Lack of model support forbids the green light, but I’m producing far more profit HML than VML with these teams last 30 days, so I’ll give Ducks moneyline a yellow light. Under 6.5 also nearly procured a yellow light because models and recent results back-up that pick, but I’m still very cautious about promoting games at 6.5 totals.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

The news already discussed in the chat, is a “confidence inversion” led by underdogs, where my red light stay aways substantially outperformed greater confidence. For moneyline/puckline, my green light picks went 5-6 and produced a $600 loss. My yellow light picks went 9-12 and produced a $925 loss (containing several heavy favorites). Chat GPT went 4-5 promoting my yellow to green, 0-1 demoting my yellow to red. My red light “stay away” picks went 19-7 and produced an $800 profit. GPT went 7-2 promoting my red to yellow. The contribution of Chat GPT sorting picks from best to worst produced no net benefit.

The previous GPT thread had grown too large and needed to get rebooted, and the performance of the second thread went through the same cycle, effective early, then diminishing as more data was added on top of the original data. I started version 3.0 today, but success is dependent whether the latest dog trend is real or random variance. Dogs who took me down on green/yellow lights: Chicago +160 on btb vs Utah, Edmonton +145 vs Colorado, Vancouver +130 vs Nashville, San Jose +142 vs Boston, Washington +150 vs Buffalo, Winnipeg +154 vs Colorado, San Jose +154 vs Montreal, Toronto +190 vs Minnesota. Let down twice by the Avalanche (who had been hot), and San Jose (who had struggled on the road) upset me twice too.

Studying history did provide one benefit, unders were strong post-deadline and that part re-occurred. Scoring had been high, so we had a lot of 6.5 totals, then there was a sudden decrease in scoring from games with 6.5 totals (driven by teams like Montreal, Ottawa, Minnesota shifting together from high to low). For over/under, my yellow lights went 4-3. My red lights went 28-22 and produced $200 profit. Chat GPT went 3-5 promoting my red to yellow, hitting 37% from a pool that hit 56%, so performed worse than just promoting a random sample of red to yellow. Over/under is where I need the most help.

The success of red-light OU picks mostly came under 6.5 goals. Given my awful performance picking 6.5 totals this season, my own confidence modelling is very punitive on 6.5. Does that mean we should lean into under 6.5 in the week ahead? There was a big drop in scoring week 20 and 2/3 of all games had 6.5 totals (tied for most all season). We’ll probably just get more 5.5 totals this week, removing the juiciest under 6.5 targets. Under 6.5 hasn’t produced back-to-back excellent weeks all season. Oddsmakers adjust. A short-term boom in under 6.5 rarely makes under 5.5 a stronger bet the following week, more games moved to 5.5 from 6.5 helps over 5.5.

My Team of the Week: Winnipeg Jets, $377

It came as a big surprise seeing Winnipeg land in my top team of the week slot when they upset my top ranked bet Saturday defeating Colorado, but it was a weak field and most of the proceeds came from unders, two of those had 6.5 totals. We probably won’t see too many more 6.5 totals if Hellebuyck sustains Vezina form. I was ready to write this team off after the trade deadline, but they’re within spitting distance of the wildcard and probably plan to fight for every inch to qualify. They’ve won 2-straight and 6 of their last 10, so they may no longer be a highway to the danger zone and actually worth betting, even against good teams.

My second best team of the week was Pittsburgh, who played the whole 7 days without Gino Malkin, who is coming back tomorrow. They have actually been insanely good at covering +1.5 goals, which hasn’t slowed down since the Crosby injury. Though it was their overs that shot them up to #2 in my weekly ranks, my picks going 3-0. They faced some strong offensive teams, but managed to score 10 goals in 3 games without their 2 best players. The next biggest reason they’re here was losing to Carolina in a shootout when Canes were my best bet of the night. Not sure what Sid’s status is, but my appetite to short the Penguins took a hit this week.

My Worst Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, -$466

The Montreal Canadiens produced my largest loss this week, with equal difficulty picking them to win and lose (though producing a profit last 30 days on both sides). They’re a good team who can beat anyone, but lost back-to-back home games on the weekend to San Jose and Anaheim. Habs had been awesome at home, the California teams struggling on the road, but those 2 trends came crashing down. My other issue was their overs had been an awesome bet for several weeks, because they can score and goalies struggled, but their unders went 3-1. Sam Montembeault really helped those overs, but he may have fallen to 3^rd string.

Not far behind Montreal at the bottom of my weekly profit rank is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who were the worst team in the NHL post-Olympics, then lost Auston Matthews to injury, but overcame a 2-goal deficit in that game to beat Anaheim. Next game they almost beat Buffalo, then defeated Minnesota as a +190 underdog (my top ranked bet on Sunday). Does this mean they’re a better team without Captain America and this fledgling heater will continue? Probably not, but I’ll increase reluctance to pay a big price on their opponents in the few games ahead, just to make sure this wasn’t a dead cat bounce.

Tomorrow’s Picks

As you probably already assumed if you read everything above, I’m leaning hard into underdogs tomorrow. That’s not risk free though, because there’s a chance that last week’s favorites crash was just a random convergence of bad luck. Overreacting to small sample “trends” that quickly evaporate after you first notice is a common hazard for people like me tracking trends. Variance comes in all shapes and sizes, making the art of trend identification an imperfect science. Any surviving long enough to qualify for official declaration just get taxed more heavily by oddsmakers, sucking away profitability. That’s where betting models help keep me on stable ground, except when a season is behaving nothing like the seasons my models were built upon.

Paywall comes crashing down Wednesday morning.

CAR @ CBJ

The Carolina Hurricanes won 6 of their last 10 road games, Columbus won 6 of their last 10 home games, models love Blue Jackets, HML is my best bet with these teams last 30 days, favorites just had an awful week, this checks all the boxes for a green light, but I’m respecting the Hurricanes by giving this yellow. These teams are #7 and #8 in last 30 days profit ranks, but most of that coming from betting both to win. The over/under demanded a red light, Canes being an excellent bet over 6.5 goals lately, but evidence of a scoring decrease leaguewide adds doubt.

BOS @ MTL

This game automatically procured a red light stay away because 1) Boston on a back-to-back, 2) just had a bad week betting Montreal, 3) Korpisalo starting tonight, Swayman (on a heater) going tomorrow. On the bright side, Bruins rank #1 in my last 30 days profit ranks. I’m taking Montreal moneyline, which fair line says should be -233 and I’m getting -170. I’m also taking the under because Montreal unders just had a good week and Swayman will be in goal.

NYI @ TOR

Toronto is nearly undefeated since Matthews was injured, but I’m still not necessarily buying the sustainability. Maybe it infused some energy into the dressing room, but the laws of thermodynamics demand eventual diffusion. Not sure that last part is scientifically true despite sounding smart, but I’m reaching for justification for my Islanders moneyline pick when my betting models love Toronto. I’m looking at the fair line estimator and profit scores saying Isles are a great bet because they won 7 of their last 10 road games and Toronto lost 8 of 10 at home. Can’t give it a green light, but feel pretty good New York will win this. If they don’t, it’ll inject a little Leaf belief into my brain. I’m going to yellow light the under because of positive signals, but a goalie duel is plausible. I just don’t want to red light every over/under when I just had a good week betting over/under.

MIN @ CHI

Minnesota lost 4 of their last 5 games and a major contributor to last week’s favorites crash. That’s why I’m unable to pay -175 for their moneyline despite the fair line estimator saying they should -233 (most of those Ls were at home). Problem is, Soderblom is due for a start. He shutout Utah 3 games ago, then had a rough loss against Vancouver. That’s why this is getting a double red light, but confidence modelling did like my Hawks +1.5 goals pick and under 6.5 goals. I just manually adjusted the scores lower based on lack of Soderblom trust. He was great in 1 of his last 4 games, gave up 16 goals in the other 3 (but did push Dallas to overtime last game).

NSH @ WPG

The Winnipeg Jets are 5-2 on their current homestand and driving for playoffs, but a point behind Nashville in the chase, who lost 8 of their last 10 road games. My general strategy is leaning dogs today, but can’t just take every dog in case this latest “trend” was just unsustainable variance. My models like Nashville, but I don’t like getting +114 when the fair line is +186. Last 30 days profit scores favor the home side, so I’ll take Jets moneyline and even give this a yellow light. Under 5.5 feels like a good bet here, but models disagreed.

SJ @ EDM

My appetite for home favorites is minimal at the moment, especially at a -185 price tag, fair line is -150. San Jose recently defeated two good home teams on the east coast, they just don’t have support from my betting models (and not a profitable wager for me last 30 days), so I’ll take Sharks moneyline with a red light. I’m a little worried that Jarry is due in the rotation, but Oilers need a win here, only 5 PTS up on San Jose in the standings and the coach expects Draisaitl will “miss some time” with injury. They’re vulnerable here. That’s also why I’m red lighting Edmonton over 6.5. the price is expensive anyway, and their last 2 games went under.

TB @ SEA

Another big reason for imploding favorites is Tampa losing 7 of their last 10 games, my fair line estimator saying Seattle should be a -150 favorite not +164 dog. Models like Seattle, they won 6 of 10 at home and HML is my best bet with these teams last 30 days, so I’ll take Kraken moneyline. I’m probably too conservative to ever green light a +164 dog, especially against a sleeping goliath like Tampa, but I’m sure games like this are why my historical rate of return (across a sample closing in on 10,000 games) is higher on minimum bets than larger amounts. That wasn’t the case the last few weeks, but may be flipping back. The over/under had conflicting signals.

FLA @ VAN

Florida lost 6 of their last 10, Vancouver lost 8 of 10, I’m just not interested in paying -155 for a Panthers road moneyline, even if it’s against the worst team in the league. They have not done enough lately to earn my support at that price (FLE does say it’s fair), but I’m also not moneyline confident in Vancouver. I’ll punt with a minimum bet on Canucks +1.5 goals, but am going to red light the pick because they’re in last place and Bobrovsky has a .925 SV% last 5 GP. Over 5.5 nearly received a yellow, but landed on red because Bob is the likely starter and hot.

BUF @ VEG

Vegas lost 6 of their last 10 games, Buffalo won 9 of their last 10, so it’s baffling that Sabres are a +114 dog and situations like this beg the question, is this a trap line? Do oddsmakers know something I don’t? Knights won 2-straight by 10-2 score, possibly signaling a fledgling heater. The fair line for Buffalo is -233 and I’m getting +114. Past seasons, getting “value” was a bad thing. That’s why my old “Betting Value” model quickly received gender re-assignment surgery, re-born as “Shorting Value”, but value flipped in this parity season, though not guaranteed to persist. Having said all that, I’m obviously taking Sabres moneyline and giving this a green light. If Vegas wins, that’ll be strong evidence their struggles are shifting in a positive direction. Under 6.5 received a red light, but wasn’t far away from yellow.

Good luck!